Redmorninglight Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Milder overnight lows (moisture-laden atmosphere) this coming winter may skew the means for the DJF period. This happened in 09-10. Who needs lows near 0F anyway?! Heavy snow and a 29/22F daily split is fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 So you're calling for Snowpocalypse II? I'm still holding out hope for Vets Day II myself. lol- big December snow happens like next to never around here. I just keep having this feeling that this winter is going to be volatile with shorter cycles of good and bad patterns. Just a hunch. Like we could torch for half of Dec and then flip to cold and possibly have a decent storm. The kind of month that is +2-3 but 4-10" region wide. Which would be well above Dec climo. Something like a cold second half of Nov with the odd chance at accum nov snow...then torch...then storm. Or torch turkey day...then storm during first half of Dec...then shorts on Christmas. My thoughts mostly hinge on not getting the beast in the npac too far east that takes a month or more to get the hell out of the way and also the AO (and hopefully NAO) cooperating off and on throughout winter and not raging + like we've seen 2 years in a row. Just WAGs but it's what my gut is telling me anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 New Euro monthlies are warm thru Jan .. then near normal in Feb then warm again. Wet throughout. WarNing on Euro seasonal...just stick to the 500mb pattern because it's never close on the 2m temps. Great on pattern...terrible on temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 It was tho I think this one is a bit warmer for Jan than prior but I can't completely recall now. +1-2 Nov +2-3 Dec +1 Jan Near normal Feb Near normal to +1 Mar +2 Apr perfect. Dec is a throw away month anyway except for Dec 5 and an occasional Dec 19 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Ugh@antmasiello: The new ECMWF forecast is basically a Nov to Jan blowtorch type pattern for northern US and Europe. Feb is typical but nothing special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Ugh @antmasiello: The new ECMWF forecast is basically a Nov to Jan blowtorch type pattern for northern US and Europe. Feb is typical but nothing special see discussion in the NE forum that's NORTHERN US, which is typical El Nino, with t he same thing happening in 86/87, and we know how well that turned out for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 perfect. Dec is a throw away month anyway except for Dec 5 and an occasional Dec 19 blizzard 5-years overdue for a repeat. lets make it happen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 No matter what, you can't shine the turd that is Winter 15/16. There is just too much going againist big totals towards the coastal plain, we need supervolcano asap. I stand by my older calls on winter ending post-2025, at least in a way we care about so enjoy this last decade or so locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 No matter what, you can't shine the turd that is Winter 15/16. There is just too much going againist it, we need supervolcano asap. I stand by my older calls on winter ending post-2025, at least in a way we care about so enjoy this last decade or so locally. And here I thought you only posted this kind of absurd nonesense in the CC forum...nevermind exposing the rest of the good-faith wx posters to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 And here I thought you only posted this kind of absurd nonesense in the CC forum...nevermind exposing the rest of the good-faith wx posters to it. I am posting in good-faith and accept the consequences like any forecaster, of a failed prediction. I just prefer to drive this point home as I think we all care deeply about snow. It's better to know and prepare mentally than be surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 No matter what, you can't shine the turd that is Winter 15/16. There is just too much going againist big totals towards the coastal plain, we need supervolcano asap. I stand by my older calls on winter ending post-2025, at least in a way we care about so enjoy this last decade or so locally. lolz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 No matter what, you can't shine the turd that is Winter 15/16. There is just too much going againist big totals towards the coastal plain, we need supervolcano asap. I stand by my older calls on winter ending post-2025, at least in a way we care about so enjoy this last decade or so locally. I hope so. Winter blows except when it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 ORH_wxman > AvantHiatus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 And here I thought you only posted this kind of absurd nonesense in the CC forum...nevermind exposing the rest of the good-faith wx posters to it. I can't believe he's allowed to post at all, but that's not my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 ORH_wxman > AvantHiatus By miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Fair points all around but will isolating the discussion make it go away physically? In regards to our prospects, the cards could always align in this new era moisture-laden players. We could easily torch and enter into a brief favorable period that dumps our seasonal average in one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Fair points all around but will isolating the discussion make it go away physically? In regards to our prospects, the cards could always align in this new era moisture-laden players. We could easily torch and enter into a brief favorable period that dumps our seasonal average in one storm. Isolating you would make you go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Fair points all around but will isolating the discussion make it go away physically? In regards to our prospects, the cards could always align in this new era moisture-laden players. We could easily torch and enter into a brief favorable period that dumps our seasonal average in one storm.So you're comfortable saying you don't know what will happen. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 So you're comfortable saying you don't know what will happen. Gotcha. I don't know if anyone knows, all things considered. The Siberian Snow Cover correlation broke down last year, more stuff will probably keep breaking that causes accurate forecasting to become impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Pretty sure we already have. I'd have to check my numbers, but I think I was at 33-34 inches in 2012-13, and it was the lowest of the past 3. I don't see any way that Winchester is above 33" for a normal. 28.5 is climo. I had just short of 27 in 12-13. Still not a terrible winter by any stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 And here I thought you only posted this kind of absurd nonesense in the CC forum...nevermind exposing the rest of the good-faith wx posters to it. I'm doing my part with AGW. Ever since he posted that the last 2 cold winters in the east were the result of climate change I've left my Suburban idling in my driveway 24/7. Yea, it's expensive and all but worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I don't know if anyone knows, all things considered. The Siberian Snow Cover correlation broke down last year, more stuff will probably keep breaking that causes accurate forecasting to become impossible. There's growing consensus that the most important breakdown of them all involves your keyboard and internet connection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 I'm doing my part with AGW. Ever since he posted that the last 2 cold winters in the east were the result of climate change I've left my Suburban idling in my driveway 24/7. Yea, it's expensive and all but worth it. Good idea Bob. You could top that off by eating beans daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 There's growing consensus that the most important breakdown of them all involves your keyboard and internet connection. You should keep a closer watch on the accuracy of your own predictions first. I have.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 lol- big December snow happens like next to never around here. I just keep having this feeling that this winter is going to be volatile with shorter cycles of good and bad patterns. Just a hunch. Like we could torch for half of Dec and then flip to cold and possibly have a decent storm. The kind of month that is +2-3 but 4-10" region wide. Which would be well above Dec climo. Something like a cold second half of Nov with the odd chance at accum nov snow...then torch...then storm. Or torch turkey day...then storm during first half of Dec...then shorts on Christmas. My thoughts mostly hinge on not getting the beast in the npac too far east that takes a month or more to get the hell out of the way and also the AO (and hopefully NAO) cooperating off and on throughout winter and not raging + like we've seen 2 years in a row. Just WAGs but it's what my gut is telling me anyways. 2nd year Dec nino's has to count for something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 8, 2015 Share Posted October 8, 2015 Fair points all around but will isolating the discussion make it go away physically? In regards to our prospects, the cards could always align in this new era moisture-laden players. We could easily torch and enter into a brief favorable period that dumps our seasonal average in one storm. You are like some random word generator. I am still not convinced you are an actual person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 I'm doing my part with AGW. Ever since he posted that the last 2 cold winters in the east were the result of climate change I've left my Suburban idling in my driveway 24/7. Yea, it's expensive and all but worth it.Well after 2010 we were told there would be more -NAO because of global warming so don't go crazy now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 I'm doing my part with AGW. Ever since he posted that the last 2 cold winters in the east were the result of climate change I've left my Suburban idling in my driveway 24/7. Yea, it's expensive and all but worth it. Termite farms... 10 times the amount of carbon as humans! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 The super volcano idea isn't awful, would need to be Yellowstone though. We wouldn't be impacted by the initial eruption, just the ash fall and volcanic winter that followed. If it was one on the other side of the Atlantic however, the resulting tsunami would kill us all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 9, 2015 Share Posted October 9, 2015 The super volcano idea isn't awful, would need to be Yellowstone though. We wouldn't be impacted by the initial eruption, just the ash fall and volcanic winter that followed. If it was one on the other side of the Atlantic however, the resulting tsunami would kill us all. Go for the home run...Toba. It's tropical so it would have an even faster impact in circulating the sulfates around the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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