Winter 2015-2016 speculation and discussion

[mitchnick]

Idk if this link has ever been posted here, but Ginx snewx over in the NE thread linked it in their winter thread. It has some great research info and will really save some time for those interested in looking back for potential analog years.

http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/enso/uspmaps.html

[Deck Pic]

Dec: +6.6

January: +4.1

February: -1.1

March: -4.4

 

DCA snow for entire season - 28.8"

 

12/18: 0.3"

1/17: 1.1"

1/20: 0.1"

1/30: 1.6"

2/7: 4.8"

2/9-10: 18.8"

2/14: 1.3"

3/29: 0.8"

[mitchnick]

Dec: +6.6

January: +4.1

February: -1.1

March: -4.4

 

DCA snow for entire season - 28.8"

 

12/18: 0.3"

1/17: 1.1"

1/20: 0.1"

1/30: 1.6"

2/7: 4.8"

2/9-10: 18.8"

2/14: 1.3"

3/29: 0.8"

although I don't disagree that we'll get AN snows this year, with the chance of at least 1 blockbuster, your temps look eerily close to what the CFS2 is painting and I fear WinterWxLuvr might attack    

[mitchnick]

If DCA is anywhere close to 30, it'll be a damn good year, in between the parts where we torch and cope with rainers.

plus, if DCA can come in with that much "officially", you know places like IAD and BWI are going to be 35"-40"

[WxUSAF]

Dec: +6.6

January: +4.1

February: -1.1

March: -4.4

 

DCA snow for entire season - 28.8"

 

12/18: 0.3"

1/17: 1.1"

1/20: 0.1"

1/30: 1.6"

2/7: 4.8"

2/9-10: 18.8"

2/14: 1.3"

3/29: 0.8"

Would not surprise me in the least.  I imagine you're thinking AN/MAN precip (including liquid) also? 

[Deck Pic]

Would not surprise me in the least.  I imagine you're thinking AN/MAN precip (including liquid) also? 

 

Was mostly just joking around...haven't really looked at anything yet, but will start in the next few weeks...Can't say I'm terribly enthused about a strong region 3 based nino with great uncertainty over whether the atlantic will be any good...

 

 

I'd sign on the dotted line right now for what we had February 14th through early March.

Eta: but I would not sign for things to play out like Matt predicted. At least wrt snow events. Spread out my 28.

 

I'm chasing greatness..winter is pass/fail for me this winter...Hecs - Pass, No Hecs - Fail

[Bob Chill]

I'm going normal to below normal temps in December because not a single person is right now. At least for BWI/IAD anyways. If DCA ends up only +2 or something it will be a considered a cold month outside of 495. 

[AlaskaETC]

Dec: +6.6

January: +4.1

February: -1.1

March: -4.4

 

DCA snow for entire season - 28.8"

 

12/18: 0.3"

1/17: 1.1"

1/20: 0.1"

1/30: 1.6"

2/7: 4.8"

2/9-10: 18.8"

2/14: 1.3"

3/29: 0.8"

 

You are going pretty warm for December and January. I prefer cold straight through.

[Ian]

Bday HECS!!

[AlaskaETC]

Bday HECS!!

That would mean a Christmas blizzard for me. Let's hope that happens!

[Ian]

That would mean a Christmas blizzard for me. Let's hope that happens!

I was talking about Westminster Deathbands list.

Christmas= high of 74 but dropping thru 60s on a clearing NW wind after some morning rumbles and a dew pt of 67 at DCA.

[AlaskaETC]

I was talking about Westminster Deathbands list.

Christmas= high of 74 but dropping thru 60s on a clearing NW wind after some morning rumbles and a dew pt of 67 at DCA.

I know, it was just banter since you mentioned birthday HECS.

[mappy]

Leesburg, Winchester, Manchester. Parkton jackpots

[WinterWxLuvr]

Leesburg, Winchester, Manchester. Parkton jackpots

Do we have a like button?

[WxUSAF]

Christmas= high of 74 but dropping thru 60s on a clearing NW wind after some morning rumbles and a dew pt of 67 at DCA.

Was it a couple years ago we had those 2-3 days the weekend before Christmas like that?  Highs near 70 with dews in the 60s.  Wretched. 

 

Leesburg, Winchester, Manchester. Parkton jackpots

Going out on a limb there.  Might as well through jonjon's house on there too. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Was it a couple years ago we had those 2-3 days the weekend before Christmas like that? Highs near 70 with dews in the 60s. Wretched.

But that turned out to be a great winter.

[mitchnick]

Ukmet winter forecast looks pretty good for us. It's posted in the NE winter thread. I'd link it but this d@mn phone....

[Fozz]

Was it a couple years ago we had those 2-3 days the weekend before Christmas like that?  Highs near 70 with dews in the 60s.  Wretched. 

 

2013-14

[Fozz]

Pretty much wall to wall winter. DC area folks got shafted in mid December if I remember correctly, but everyone was in on the good stuff early January on. Cold, snow...man we had a nice run. 

 

It was an excellent winter and I'll remember it very fondly for years to come. Snowed almost every week and brought some of the coldest outbreaks in decades.

[mappy]

Going out on a limb there. Might as well through jonjon's house on there too.

I didn't say what we were going to jackpot in

[mappy]

2013-14

And then I got snow the day after Christmas

[mitchnick]

September Jamstec looks great/fine for us. You need to adjust the Parameter and Target Season.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

[CAPE]

September Jamstec looks great/fine for us. You need to adjust the Parameter and Target Season.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

Does look nice. Looking at the location of the cold anomalies for DJF, I see/imagine/hope for a -NAO

[snowfan]

Using the current avg of 20.1" at BWI, they haven't seen average to above average snowfall in three straight years since the mid-late 60s. Let's do this....

[mattie g]

Pretty much wall to wall winter. DC area folks got shafted in mid December if I remember correctly, but everyone was in on the good stuff early January on. Cold, snow...man we had a nice run. 

Yup...early to mid December screwed us in comparison to farther north and west.  Here are my notes from that period:

 

November 26: T - Pingers in the early AM before the deluge

November 27: T - White rain with the wraparound

December 8: 1.25" - A few hours of light snow followed by sleetfest and pouring freezing rain overnight

December 10: 2" - Hype storm didn't live up to expectations (couple degrees too warm)

December 14: T - Awful storm - poured rain with a few sleet pellets for a bit

December 17-18: 0.25" - Overnight vort passage = dusting on everything

 

Early January saw the flip to cold, and MBY got 10.5" that month.  Mid February through March was our wheelhouse that year.  Seriously backloaded, with a March like pretty much nothing we ever see in these parts.

[mitchnick]

Does look nice. Looking at the location of the cold anomalies for DJF, I see/imagine/hope for a -NAO

 

 

Using the current avg of 20.1" at BWI, they haven't seen average to above average snowfall in three straight years since the mid-late 60s. Let's do this....

We have September's runs of the Euro seasonal, UKMet, and JAMSTEC all pretty much saying the same thing for D-F, around normal temps with above normal precip (Euro seasonal cools it off some more in the J-M period too.) The Eurosip, a multi-model forecast system, has us a little warmer than the Euro seasonal, but it includes the CFS2, which is the outlier being much warmer than the other models as it places the GOA Low anomaly further east than the other LR models; remove the CFS2 from the Eurosip average, and, in all likelihood, you have something much closer to the other 3. So we're left with the question, what's WinterWxLuvr going to do when he finds out his favorite model busts? Idk, but I don't want to be around when it happens.      

[Bob Chill]

Of course I like the UKMET and JAMSTEC seasonal looks but if there is any flag that I see on the runs it's with the SSTA plots. They both show a classic +PDO with the warmest anomalies in the NPAC banked right up against the west coast. It's pretty much the textbook look. The reason both show that is due to the general H5 pattern depicted with the low anoms further west and ridging right along the coast. SSTA's would end up looking like that if that type of pattern dominated met winter. However, I think it's going to be an uphill climb to that look come the end of Oct. Certainly by the end of this month given what ensembles are painting through the end of Sept. 

 

That's our wildcard irt temps at least. Just have to let things play out. I don't think any seasonal model is right or wrong. CFS may get bashed but it's showing a definite possibility. 

 

 

 

 

[JoMo]

But, CFS v2 has the same +PDO?

 

 

 

The difference comes more in where the ridging is placed farther east with the CFS v2. 

[mitchnick]

Of course I like the UKMET and JAMSTEC seasonal looks but if there is any flag that I see on the runs it's with the SSTA plots. They both show a classic +PDO with the warmest anomalies in the NPAC banked right up against the west coast. It's pretty much the textbook look. The reason both show that is due to the general H5 pattern depicted with the low anoms further west and ridging right along the coast. SSTA's would end up looking like that if that type of pattern dominated met winter. However, I think it's going to be an uphill climb to that look come the end of Oct. Certainly by the end of this month given what ensembles are painting through the end of Sept. 

 

That's our wildcard irt temps at least. Just have to let things play out. I don't think any seasonal model is right or wrong. CFS may get bashed but it's showing a definite possibility. 

 

 

 

 

Part of the problem is that there are so many SSTA maps available. Being the honest scientist that I am, let me cherry pick one for you. Now, granted the GOA isn't exactly what the UK and JAMSTEC show (but we have time), but this SSTA does look real close to what they are showing in the equatorial PAC.

[Bob Chill]

Part of the problem is that there are so many SSTA maps available. Being the honest scientist that I am, let me cherry pick one for you. Now, granted the GOA isn't exactly what the UK and JAMSTEC show (but we have time), but this SSTA does look real close to what they are showing in the equatorial PAC.

 

 

 

As far as the pac goes, our winter hinges on where the low height anomalies persist on the means through the winter (stating obvious). So far the CFS is the only one to show things places a bit too far east but even the other seasonals show things close enough that even a minor shift would be bad news.

 

 I'm not worried or invested in anything either way. I know exactly what we need and there is not way to really know until we are well into the season. Even if December sucks it still doesn't mean Jan and Feb will. Same goes if December is tasty. Things can easily go the other way. I would be more unlikely for the npac to suck or be great for the entire winter anyways. 

 

The one thing that has my interest is the possibility of the Atl cooperating. Summer or not, this is an impressive run. One that could very well have implications going forward. The limited history we have with summers dominated with a -AO look pretty nice and this one has been one of the stronger cases if there is some sort of connection. 

 

 

 

 

97-98 had good blocking but unfortunately all it could do was force pac air down from Canada instead of continental air. In the end the winter sucked of course but it wasn't dry and had plenty of coastals. Matt has said for years that he's hoping for a big nino and just let the cards play out. We got his wish coming. I'm pretty optimistic overall that we end up with at least 1 memorable storm.