wxdude64 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I did some checking down this way, I had 17 inched here in 97/98, but 12.2 of that fell on 12/30, rest of winter was 1 or 2 inch snows max, and not many of those. I didn't keep records in 72/73 (mainly 'cuz I was 8 haha), but looked up those local COOP's and it ranged from 7 to 14 inches, VERY elevation dependent. EDIT- 82/83 I had 23.3 inches, but most of that fell in three storms. Isn't 83 the year that Air Florida plane crashed on the 14th ST bridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 The SE scored in 72-73, which was another snowless strong Nino.... Columbia, SC got 16" which I believe is their biggest storm on record. DCA saw a pitiful 0.1" for the season. But I don't think it happened in 97-98. My understanding is that we were blasted with so much Pacific air in 1998 due to a ruthless GOA vortex, that there was no mechanism to deliver the cold.... not even with good teleconnections. Your area probably managed to just be cold enough during many of the storms, but the cities were royally screwed. This is a good thread to read http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43294-why-was-1997-98-such-an-awful-winter-in-the-mid-atlantic/ The higher elevations of SWVA got hammered in 97-98. The WV state daily snowfall was recorded in Jan that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I did some checking down this way, I had 17 inched here in 97/98, but 12.2 of that fell on 12/30, rest of winter was 1 or 2 inch snows max, and not many of those. I didn't keep records in 72/73 (mainly 'cuz I was 8 haha), but looked up those local COOP's and it ranged from 7 to 14 inches, VERY elevation dependent. EDIT- 82/83 I had 23.3 inches, but most of that fell in three storms. Isn't 83 the year that Air Florida plane crashed on the 14th ST bridge? I think that was 1982... which was a very cold winter in the east. The higher elevations of SWVA got hammered in 97-98. The WV state daily snowfall was recorded in Jan that year. I recently read about that. Elevation did them wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 The higher elevations of SWVA got hammered in 97-98. The WV state daily snowfall was recorded in Jan that year. Yep I remember that, grandmother lived in Quinwood, 37 inches! I think someone had 42/43? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Interestingly the NAO in 82-83 was moderately positive for the winter. 97-98 was strongly negative. I would expect the exact opposite snow results than what we see here. Did the SE score in 97-98? maybe suppression was an issue?Chuck's nao research this year has the strongest signal for a -NAO than any prior year. My weenie paranoia questioned in the NE forum whether he could be getting a false signal due to the size of the ridge progged on all the models to be in Canada. Will said that's what happened in 97/98. Basically, the monster ridge in Canada bled eastward into the nao regime that made it look negative when in reality, it was just a big, fat ridge centered around Hudsons Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I did some checking down this way, I had 17 inched here in 97/98, but 12.2 of that fell on 12/30, rest of winter was 1 or 2 inch snows max, and not many of those. I didn't keep records in 72/73 (mainly 'cuz I was 8 haha), but looked up those local COOP's and it ranged from 7 to 14 inches, VERY elevation dependent. EDIT- 82/83 I had 23.3 inches, but most of that fell in three storms. Isn't 83 the year that Air Florida plane crashed on the 14th ST bridge? The Air Florida crash was January 13, 1982 -- see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_Florida_Flight_90. However, you are correct about the 1982-83 winter. DCA had only three snow events that winter, and yet they produced an average of 9.2 inches of snow per event. The historical DC average is 7.6 snow events per winter, but only 18.1 inches of snow, for an average snowfall per event of just 2.4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Crazy how much so cal is already getting whacked. Those pac SSTs are friggen torching everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Crazy how much so cal is already getting whacked. Those pac SSTs are friggen torching everywhere.Yet I can't stop fearing suppression. Otoh, if there is some suppression, it could be good by keeping us far enough north of the surface low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Jan.30,98 storm produced upwards of 28" in the Wise area and unofficially 36" in Lebanon,Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Yet I can't stop fearing suppression. Otoh, if there is some suppression, it could be good by keeping us far enough north of the surface low pressure. Well we're already seeing bowling balls on the regular. That's usually a nice sign. Though the pattern has been blocked up overall for a while. This system is the same one that caused flash flooding there like 8 days ago. It moved inland then looped back around offshore and is moving back east again. In some ways I think this year is acting like a second year Nino even though we weren't officially there last winter. It's just so strong it's hard to lean on those analogs too much. I generally have no clue to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Well we're already seeing bowling balls on the regular. That's usually a nice sign. Though the pattern has been blocked up overall for a while. This system is the same one that caused flash flooding there like 8 days ago. It moved inland then looped back around offshore and is moving back east again. In some ways I think this year is acting like a second year Nino even though we weren't officially there last winter. It's just so strong it's hard to lean on those analogs too much. I generally have no clue to be honest. We practically had a Nino last year... JFM for some reason dipped to 0.4 and broke the required 5 month streak. If it had been just a hair warmer, then we would've had an official El Nino from OND last year up to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Well we're already seeing bowling balls on the regular. That's usually a nice sign. Though the pattern has been blocked up overall for a while. This system is the same one that caused flash flooding there like 8 days ago. It moved inland then looped back around offshore and is moving back east again. In some ways I think this year is acting like a second year Nino even though we weren't officially there last winter. It's just so strong it's hard to lean on those analogs too much. I generally have no clue to be honest. Other than the clear fact that we are facing a pretty rare +enso event, trying to make sense of all the details is a big challenge for the best in the business. It's a fun long lead year. Analogs aren't particularly useful because there aren't many to begin with and the ones we have say anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Really.. this thing. Sorry to focus on CA in this thread but hey #supernino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Other than the clear fact that we are facing a pretty rare +enso event, trying to make sense of all the details is a big challenge for the best in the business. It's a fun long lead year. Analogs aren't particularly useful because there aren't many to begin with and the ones we have say anything is possible. Analogs are dumb because there are so few and they are rather varied as you note.. tho I dunno if I'd toss them. Then again I don't know this long range pattern stuff like some of you do. I think we do have some hurdles to get over one way or another like our source regions being pretty iffy compared to recent years.. unless that type of pattern asserts itself somehow. Strong Ninos do tend to overwhelm the system a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 DT prelim winter forecast is out FYI on FB Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 DT prelim winter forecast is out FYI on FB Sent from my iPhone Nice. Gonna check it out. Here is my last blog update before the real deal in a few weeks: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 DT prelim winter forecast is out FYI on FB Sent from my iPhone SIBERIAN SNOW COVER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted October 16, 2015 Author Share Posted October 16, 2015 The JAMSTEC model for October is out, still looks pretty good. I'll buy JAMSTEC stock before buying CFS stock. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 DT prelim winter forecast is out FYI on FB Sent from my iPhone ALEET! All hinges on El Nino. It weakens, winter is saved... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I did some checking down this way, I had 17 inched here in 97/98, but 12.2 of that fell on 12/30, rest of winter was 1 or 2 inch snows max, and not many of those. I didn't keep records in 72/73 (mainly 'cuz I was 8 haha), but looked up those local COOP's and it ranged from 7 to 14 inches, VERY elevation dependent. EDIT- 82/83 I had 23.3 inches, but most of that fell in three storms. Isn't 83 the year that Air Florida plane crashed on the 14th ST bridge? I'm shocked you didn't do better on the late January storm. We had 2 inches in Lynchburg and then a changed to rain. We even had another burst of snow the next am. ROANOKE had 4 to 6 before rain mixed. I drove once it flipped and made it to Blacksburg. Total was 22 inches but there were big periods of Rain. Max depth was much lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 Here is a map from that storm..it was 2 inches in LYH before the flip..not sure why it's not shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 in 97-98 I was living in Silver Spring, and got around 2.5" for the winter...I don't think I was below 32-33 for a single precip event that winter...A repeat would be awful... 12/9 - Maybe a 0.25" from a brief day time 32-33/-SN event that mixed 12/27 - See above 12/29-30 - This was the big coastal that nailed the interior- another mixy 33 event for me. Maybe 1.5" 1/24 - Yet another 33 degree 0.25" on heels of massive coastal 2/4 - Quick morning 0.25" at like 34 I had a couple more mixy traces **** ton of rain..no arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I haven't looked at seasonal re analysis but it is interesting 97/98 had -NAO/-ao. Looked at that today seemed both were pretty solid too most of the winter. I'd be tempted to see a winter like that at least once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 16, 2015 Share Posted October 16, 2015 I haven't looked at seasonal re analysis but it is interesting 97/98 had -NAO/-ao. Looked at that today seemed both were pretty solid too most of the winter. I'd be tempted to see a winter like that at least once. I wouldn't be surprised with a neutral AO/NAO, at least statistically...we'll have a mean block somewhere to our NW this winter..probably over Hudson Bay, and it's possible above normal heights could poke into the Baffin Island area...might not matter much when the air masses are 75 degrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The presentation DT made certainly makes a good winter seem plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I haven't looked at seasonal re analysis but it is interesting 97/98 had -NAO/-ao. Looked at that today seemed both were pretty solid too most of the winter. I'd be tempted to see a winter like that at least once. Fraud of a neg NAO that was, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The JAMSTEC model for October is out, still looks pretty good. I'll buy JAMSTEC stock before buying CFS stock. http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Textbook +PDO. That was the vibe I got from DT...ready to release the hounds, but still guarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised with a neutral AO/NAO, at least statistically...we'll have a mean block somewhere to our NW this winter..probably over Hudson Bay, and it's possible above normal heights could poke into the Baffin Island area...might not matter much when the air masses are 75 degrees... The key will be the Aleutian low of course...if we have it the size of a supernova expanding into the GOA, then it's another '97-'98. If we keep it west though and not so gigantic, then we'll have some decent airmasses where Atlanta isn't colder than Montreal. The tropical forcing thus far has been west of the typical super ninos...and it's starting to get later in the autumn, so we should see it start to show signs of shifting much further east soon if it is going to. Still time to do so, but this hasn't acted like the others. We'll see if it ends up mattering or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 The key will be the Aleutian low of course...if we have it the size of a supernova expanding into the GOA, then it's another '97-'98. If we keep it west though and not so gigantic, then we'll have some decent airmasses where Atlanta isn't colder than Montreal. The tropical forcing thus far has been west of the typical super ninos...and it's starting to get later in the autumn, so we should see it start to show signs of shifting much further east soon if it is going to. Still time to do so, but this hasn't acted like the others. We'll see if it ends up mattering or not. in my prelim fun map, I have it pretty far SW, but don't think we'll get EPO dumps either...though even at our crappy latitude, modified bootleg air masses can work with the right track in mid winter...97-98 we were just way too warm..my outlook isn't for a few more weeks, but a wild ass guess would be a colder version of a super nino with a normal to slightly below Feb....Dec could suck, but it always does here...It isn't a winter month here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 17, 2015 Share Posted October 17, 2015 in my prelim fun map, I have it pretty far SW, but don't think we'll get EPO dumps either...though even at our crappy latitude, modified bootleg air masses can work with the right track in mid winter...97-98 we were just way too warm..my outlook isn't for a few more weeks, but a wild ass guess would be a colder version of a super nino with a normal to slightly below Feb....Dec could suck, but it always does here...It isn't a winter month here Yeah your map has it a bit west of '97-'98...I'd like even further west than your map to get a blockbuster, but yours would be manageable in the means. Your pattern is kind of like Feb '83 without the North Atlantic so cooperative. Get a little actual help from the N ATL and things can work out (as they did that month). Jan '83 was similar PAC but Atlantic wasn't good. Heck, that month wasn't that warm S of 40N. (even up here is was like +1 to +2) Even '83 had a behemoth Aleutian Low that spread a bit into the GOA, but it wasn't as far east as '97-'98 and a little actual help from the Atlantic took advantage of that opening in February that winter. '98 had that flattish block over Hudson Bay...it wasn't even really a true block. Just a persistent area of well above average heights due to the downstream effects of the black hole in the GOA that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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