RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This was a good run for everyone Yea for nyc crowd...but for sne, not so much. just the south coast still in the game. I like where I sit still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Amazing how many here still live and die with the Nam. Even after all these years . Even seasoned posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Lol, now the GFS and Euro go nuts...that would just be too funny. Or they take it all away? I'd take a GFS and Euro blend where I'm at from their last runs. Hopefully they hold their ground now??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The NAM was too far north. Now it's probably a bit too far south bit obviously closer to consensus. If you weren't expecting the NAM to be right in then you shouldn't be surprised. Let's wait for the big boys to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wrong forum dude. Half of this forum doesn't even get measurable. Opps, I just realized I posted that in here. Carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Classic > 60hour NAM red herring all along? Certainly looking that way! The only reason I extended any credence at all to that NAM was because at a few points in time ... some of the other global numerical models had something similar. They had all since lost it... Then the NAM tries to pick it up at 84 hours and hold it? good luck with that...But, seeing as the former was true, worth keeping an eye on. I had three bullet points on this, two of which were red flags... one was that ANA's are notoriously over QPF'ed. Two, the NAM is highly susceptible to NW error beyond 48 hours out. Most Mets here know that - The up shot is that my plan to see Logan fail to exceed the 107.xx snow record is almost complete - muah hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Amazing how many here still live and die with the Nam. Even after all these years . Even seasoned posters It is the undeniable trend since yesterday afternoon that would have me worried...not the solution verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Amazing how many here still live and die with the Nam. Even after all these years . Even seasoned posters I never bought it to begin with...so I never lived with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It is the undeniable trend since yesterday afternoon that would have me worried...not the solution verbatim. There hasn't been any noticeable trend. The ens all are bullish. So you toss the nam. Euro looked good. Rgem looked good. Ukie was warning snow to pike etc etc.. Now if everything whiffs like the NAM ..then we have a trend..Not sure why folks are thinking Thursday is sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Amazing how many here still live and die with the Nam. Even after all these years . Even seasoned postersYou've been humping it for 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There hasn't been any noticeable trend. The ens all are bullish. So you toss the nam. Euro looked good. Not sure why folks are thinking Thursday is sunnyNobody has said that Thursday is sunny. Getting an inch or two is not the same as calling for sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You've been humping it for 2 days. Where? Links Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There hasn't been any noticeable trend. The ens all are bullish. So you toss the nam. Euro looked good. Not sure why folks are thinking Thursday is sunny Yea I also don't know why. South coast is in the game but the veterans make it seem like we arent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There hasn't been any noticeable trend. The ens all are bullish. So you toss the nam. Euro looked good. Rgem looked good. Ukie was warning snow to pike etc etc.. Now if everything whiffs like the NAM ..then we have a trend..Not sure why folks are thinking Thursday is sunny Well hopefully rgem doesn't go similarly in a few minutes. Anafrontal snow events are rare for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yea I also don't know why. South coast is in the game but the veterans make it seem like we arent. Maybe they are referring to areas north of I-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It is the undeniable trend since yesterday afternoon that would have me worried...not the solution verbatim. Sure, the trend is there but we will now need the GFS/Euro/Ukie/GGEM to bail on an advisory snowfall for this to suck, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There hasn't been any noticeable trend. The ens all are bullish. So you toss the nam. Euro looked good. Rgem looked good. Ukie was warning snow to pike etc etc.. Now if everything whiffs like the NAM ..then we have a trend..Not sure why folks are thinking Thursday is sunny You are giving the forum a first hand example of confirmation bias. American guidance has all ticked worse...including the GEFS even if they are still good verbatim. Euro was OK at 00z and GGEM...they were basically status quo...Ukie ticked worse and RGEM ticked worse. Take all of the guidance...even excluding the NAM....as a whole and you have a definite south trend. Maybe the other guidance will come north at 12z, but I have my doubts. And not just because the NAM came in south...this setup with the formidable northern stream is going to have a hard time overcoming the confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Maybe they are referring to areas north of I-90 Or boston, you know this forum revolves around that city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sure, the trend is there but we will now need the GFS/Euro/Ukie/GGEM to bail on an advisory snowfall for this to suck, no? I see that as a distinct possibility, but certainly not a lock. You will probably still be ok for advisory down there since there was more wiggle room in SE MA, but if you are the northern fringe of advisory snows, then that means this trended from advisory to nuisance/whiff for a lot of the forum. I think most would view that as "suck". But we'll see what the big boy models do. It's possible the NAM is just on crack...but the subtle southward shift in other guidance before the NAM came out was already there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well I just don't agree there was shift south in guidance other than the NAM. If everything came south at 12z..then ok..it's sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I see that as a distinct possibility, but certainly not a lock. You will probably still be ok for advisory down there since there was more wiggle room in SE MA, but if you are the northern fringe of advisory snows, then that means this trended from advisory to nuisance/whiff for a lot of the forum. I think most would view that as "suck". But we'll see what the big boy models do. It's possible the NAM is just on crack...but the subtle southward shift in other guidance before the NAM came out was already there. Will, There was only really a shift south on the Ukie and it was subtle. The Gem, GFS, Euro, and ensembles really didn't shift south, did it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Or boston, you know this forum revolves around that city. The trend is south. All anyone said. If you can't wrap your mind around that, then I'm at a loss. As for YBY, take a look and see for yourself. Maybe it is still fine for you, but we know is it is trending in the wrong direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Pretty sure everyone will be cloudy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Will, There was only really a shift south on the Ukie and it was subtle. The Gem, GFS, Euro, and ensembles really didn't shift south, did it? GFS and GEFS trended a bit south at 06z...GEM and Euro were OK at 00z. RGEM went south at 06z. We will find out a lot more at 12z...we don't have any intermediate runs for the Euro and GGEM obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Grazer on RGEM at 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think the NAM will eventually want to retract it's last few runs. Very prescient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Very prescient. I think south coast folks can still do ok, but outside of there is cooked. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Rgem went south at 12z 2 for 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I just saw the 00z Euro on this thing... Sorry, the Euro is just not that bad of a model - this, imho, was never going to happen, and I bet future NAM solution correct this right on to a partly cloud, dry NW breeze for everyone too. Least, certainly would not surprise me. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Grazer on RGEM at 48. Yeah that is almost a clean whiff pike northward and really only the south coast would get advisory snows on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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