Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Trend is real. I'll give it until the 0z runs before throwing in the towel completely, but the writing was on the wall when the NAM started ticking south and nothing started ticking the opposite way. ..ever had anything beyond 60 hours when no other guidance source was that far NW, so this threads labor and pinship never should have happened... agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thats totally fine..... Gravy Yup. If it's more so be it. If it's less, so be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Steve, compare hour 48 3 hour qpf with 54 on the 6z run. Clearly shifted south, it's not debatable. My rgem only goes to 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My rgem only goes to 48 It's south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's south cool, looks like the trend is south at 12Z, its never turned around this winter, game over for North of the pike, probably a good hit south of 84, congrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 ..ever had anything beyond 60 hours when no other guidance source was that far NW, so this threads labor and pinship never should have happened... agreed All models at one point had at least an advisory event for BOS-ORH southward...and warning snows a bit further south. The NAM was just the only model spitting out 12" totals. But it's not true to say that no other guidance had this event of any significance...they did. Every model in fact (at least the major ones) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 While now at 12z there actually was a trend. I'd suggest giving the data a chance to get onshore and fully sampled and see what 00z looks like. Fair chance it bumps back north . Fair chance it doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's south RGEM at 48 does have you with about 5 though, so thats cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 DI SAS TAH. Hopefully we break the record while I'm away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 RGEM at 48 does have you with about 5 though, so thats cool Honestly, I was thinking more about Boston and the record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 While now at 12z there actually was a trend. I'd suggest giving the data a chance to get onshore and fully sampled and see what 00z looks like. Fair chance it bumps back north . Fair chance it doesn't Could whiff could slam, we await further diagnosis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Could be like 96. BOS goes over 100 and rots till a 6+ event around 4/10. I think that is exactly what we see, but perhaps a couple of weeks sonner. Tickets for this year's celebrity death match with 1996 in a few weeks should be hitting the guidance box office in about a week. Some will buy, some will pass....I'm preordering my ticket to this epic paperview event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Honestly, I was thinking more about Boston and the record Yea hopefully they get it tonight, how much do they need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 RGEM at 48 does have you with about 5 though, so thats cool Not from the anafront though...probably includes at least 3 inches tonight from the front ender. RGEM was extremely paltry north of the immediate south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Not from the anafront though...probably includes at least 3 inches tonight from the front ender. RGEM was extremely paltry north of the immediate south coast. cool, stats adder and padder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 You think Boston gets zero snow tonight like the GFS shows? We'll get 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We'll get 2 How much do you need? I would expect some good frontogenic forcing north of what models are showing up to the Pike . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 How much do you need? I would expect some good frontogenic forcing north of what models are showing up to the Pike . 3.5 to tie, 3.6 to break it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We'll need that slant-stick to break it this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Lots of unnecessary panic and worry here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Boston only needs 3.5? I think they'll pull it off barring a partly sunny day on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Lots of unnecessary panic and worry here Depends on expectations...if you are expecting more than 4", then north of a PYM-DXR line I'd be pretty worried. I actually agree with you that 00z is probably one more chance to right the model trends. The energy is still mostly offshore, but not entirely...which is why 12z trends were so disconcerting. Maybe 00z will reenergize the system with a stronger southern stream, but I have my doubts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Lots of unnecessary panic and worry here I don't think it's as much panic and worry, as it is an acceptance of the inevitable truth RE this fading threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Lots of unnecessary panic and worry here Boston peeps panic on March 3rd they won't break their record only needing 3.7 inches. Oh my Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Boston peeps panic on March 3rd they won't break their record only needing 3.7 inches. Oh my I think the record falls, just not sure it's this week. Did your outlook have anything around the equinox? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think its just disappointment. I don't care about records so much, and I'm nowhere near one IMBY. People understandably wanted to dispatch the run in style, not limp up to it while squinting at a ruler. They also know they are running out of outs with the March sun doing its job. People also wanted something a little more than the nickle and dime crap we've had for since the winter blitz. These are all events that would be wholly unremarkable if they weren't falling on a remarkable pack. Its more fun when jackpots aren't 4 or 5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think the record falls, just not sure it's this week. Did your outlook have anything around the equinox? Oh yea, big expectations on my part that week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Oh yea, big expectations on my part that week Good. We're in agreement. Bowling ball, fire house incoming, after society is duped into donning flip flops, as the calendar officaly flips to spring, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think its just disappointment. I don't care about records so much, and I'm nowhere near one IMBY. People understandably wanted to dispatch the run in style, not limp up to it while squinting at a ruler. People also wanted something a little more than the nickle and dime crap we've had for since the winter blitz. These are all events that would be wholly unremarkable if they weren't falling on a remarkable pack. Its more fun when jackpots aren't 4 or 5 inches. with 3 feet otg and 100+ inches the record itself is just a number to hang a badge on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Depends on expectations...if you are expecting more than 4", then north of a PYM-DXR line I'd be pretty worried. I actually agree with you that 00z is probably one more chance to right the model trends. The energy is still mostly offshore, but not entirely...which is why 12z trends were so disconcerting. Maybe 00z will reenergize the system with a stronger southern stream, but I have my doubts. How come when you agree with me you always use "actually"? Like its a travesty or terrible thing that you and I are in alliance lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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