CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Don't the ensembles tend to diffuse those sharp gradients? I know they usually make it look better than reality when we are sitting up here on the edge. A few juiced members make it look more widespread than it usually is. Yeah I mentioned that earlier. A few weenie members can skew it. I feel like at this stage, baton is passed from ensemble to op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Everything I looked at this morning looks pretty good for areas in CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This seems like a case where you give more weight to the ens than you do the ops. Caution flags will end up buried by the snowplow I do give weight to them, yes but I don't completely discredit their Op runs either. The atmosphere has found every which way to give us snow this season and I think will just be one more. I feel much more confident about places S of the Pike right now than I do N of it as far as 4"+ type totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm only concerned with achieving a total of 3.7 to break the record at BOS. I'm thinking 2 tonight and hopefully the balance in the frontsy backsy event following. I just hope we get more inches than we have threads planning celebratory gtg's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I hope so. But that northern stream energy is really crushing. Caution flags remain 100% full mast until there's good agreement that the southern stream over powers it. We've seen a lot of events tick back SE this year at the last second...doesn't mean it happens this time but you have to understand that this can trend either direction. I agree, without that strong southern stream energy, this is meh. They act in concert with each other to give us this potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Everything I looked at this morning looks pretty good for areas in CT. Let's hope everyone gets in on it. As you know..nothing worse than seeing "north of the pike "cash in while we rain or sit under clouds and flurries. And they don't like when we get crushed and they see dustings to 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If the combined total from this one and tonight at BOS is >3.7", it's a success in my mind. Should mean this needs to be 2" ish to do that which I think it can do, but if it doesn't, I don't really see something behind it that's going to put us over the top, so I'm counting on this one to deliver or preparing to face disappointment at falling just short after coming back all this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 1) I wonder what models will be more prone to underestimate: the confluence or the southern stream energy. And I wonder how this tendency changes in March vs. earlier in the winter. 2) One difference that may (or may not) be important: compared to prior events in which we shifted southeast as we got closer, QPF will be driven by a southern stream system moving into the confluence rather than a northern stream system. This might even favor confluence, I don't know. Also wonder how this impacts which models do better. Canadians and GFS seemed to do really well with the northern stream epicosity parade, and NAM performed like just another ensemble member. I wonder if things are different this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm out in the middle of the runway waving massive Scooter caution flags with this one right now. 06z trends on the American guidance were not inspiring after a status quo on the 00z. That confluence to the north is really strong. We will hope that the southern energy really trends better at 12z because this one is running out of time. Yea, this winter went all 2010 on me a few weeks ago. I think my record chances are toast, but Boston and may spots in CT should have theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I am assuming that this thread is only for discussions after tonight/tomorrow's system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I am assuming that this thread is only for discussions after tonight/tomorrow's system? there is a separate thread which nobody has posted in about the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 1) I wonder what models will be more prone to underestimate: the confluence or the southern stream energy. And I wonder how this tendency changes in March vs. earlier in the winter. 2) One difference that may (or may not) be important: compared to prior events in which we shifted southeast as we got closer, QPF will be driven by a southern stream system moving into the confluence rather than a northern stream system. This might even favor confluence, I don't know. Also wonder how this impacts which models do better. Canadians and GFS seemed to do really well with the northern stream epicosity parade, and NAM performed like just another ensemble member. I wonder if things are different this time. Southern energy will be better sampled at 12z near S California coast than last night but still not fully onshore. But it should have enough of it to make any noticeable trends meaningful IMHO. IF we trend flatter at 12z and the southern energy looks a bit worse, then that might be unrecoverable at this stage. So we will hope that it looks stronger. That would be a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Everything I looked at this morning looks pretty good for areas in CT. I break balls a lot, but I'm glad you guys are looking good again. Can't complain too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I break balls a lot, but I'm glad you guys are looking good again. Can't complain too much. Thanks, 4km NAM is sick especially in places like Philly which are below normal for the year. I hope those guys get smoked, lots of good peeps, looks like they get the hammer stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Everyone's favorite, 03z SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 if thursd could produce for us in a big way it would go a long way to taking the edge off here, oh how i pray but i only have the nam in my corner....ugh...beautiful 22 otg and ripe for a pack peak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If only the Lunenburg guy was measuring at Logan, we wouldn't have to worry about breaking the record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Everyone's favorite, 03z SREFs. f12s63.gif since you went there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z NAM: Even within 24 hours, a significant change with H5 energy by Baja... clearly further southwest compared to 6z or 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 since you went there They're just models and we can "discuss" them all we want. Whether one chooses to believe them or not is a whole 'nother discussion. 09z ones look pretty good too. I see the 24h 0.5" line up to the Pike area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 since you went there Wow. Between tonight, and this event, I could be very close to or at 100. Of course it all has to break just right. (yes, it is all about me) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow. Between tonight, and this event, I could be very close to or at 100. Of course it all has to break just right. (yes, it is all about me) Within reason and have to think it won"t be our last shot . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Battle continues. Nrn stream confluence while the s/w over the SW looks better. Personally, the nrn stream is causing the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Battle continues. Nrn stream confluence while the s/w over the SW looks better. Personally, the nrn stream is causing the issue. Man, ghosts of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If the combined total from this one and tonight at BOS is >3.7", it's a success in my mind. Should mean this needs to be 2" ish to do that which I think it can do, but if it doesn't, I don't really see something behind it that's going to put us over the top, so I'm counting on this one to deliver or preparing to face disappointment at falling just short after coming back all this way. Doesn't have to be >3.7. 3.5 ties and 3.6 breaks the record. I was wrong before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Too stretched out. Won't be as good as 6z NAM IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Everyone's favorite, 03z SREFs. Here's the 09z run. Not as amplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Too stretched out. Won't be as good as 6z NAM IMO. It shouldn't be since it's been N of all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 sounds like another crush job for nyc, mother of god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 NAM is significantly south of the 06z run. Crunching confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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