CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well yeah not getting too crazy yet..but I do feel fairly confident in 6 inches at to the Pike. the potential is there for more though There should be an awesome band close to the NW edge of this. Just a matter of whether or not it gets to I-90 or ACK..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 There should be an awesome band close to the NW edge of this. Just a matter of whether or not it gets to I-90 or ACK..lol. My gut says it gets well north of the Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm trying to figure out if it comes in as straight snow or we starts aide and transition to snow. That also depends on how far north precip gets. Might be all snow...but it wouldn't shock me if it started as a brief mix, especially further south. Inconsequential really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My gut says it gets well north of the Pike We pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well yeah not getting too crazy yet..but I do feel fairly confident in 6 inches to the Pike. the potential is there for more thoughI agree with this. I'm not optimistic up here, but hopefully you and Steve kill it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I agree with this. I'm not optimistic up here, but hopefully you and Steve kill it. I honestly see your area getting at least 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We pray.My forecast would be a blend of OP Euro and GFS right now. Ens are a bit of a binki for some at this late juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My forecast would be a blend of OP Euro and GFS right now. Ens are a bit of a binki for some at this late juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 A big smear of meh. Maybe some weenie in the hills of CT or RI gets 5" I had been hoping for a bit of a bump north, but it is not to be We drag ourselves nearer the BOS goal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 A big smear of meh. Maybe some weenie in the hills of CT or RI gets 5" I had been hoping for a bit of a bump north, but it is not to be We drag ourselves nearer the BOS goal This winter has been a three week oasis of epicosity amidst a sea of futility north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Solid chart here. Maybe they are updating to include the follow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This winter has been a three week oasis of epicosity amidst a sea of futility north of the pike. For some it really has Thou the cold has been here for what seems like forever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This winter has been a three week oasis of epicosity amidst a sea of futility north of the pike. 1960-61 to a T. Big blizzard 12/11-12, then quiet until the 2 week epicosity then cya winter. Yet it's one of the signature winters for me. In the end, it's all about big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The Euro did come north with the heavier stuff - so that's a good sign. Euro Ensembles also look pretty bullish with 0.5" of liquid from HFD-near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 The Euro did come north with the heavier stuff - so that's a good sign. Euro Ensembles also look pretty bullish with 0.5" of liquid from HFD-near BOS. This has all the makings of a weenie band near the nrn edge. Just a matter of where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This has all the makings of a weenie band near the nrn edge. Just a matter of where. Although - there's going to be a lot of dry air to contend with from 800mb to sfc on northern edge. The GFS is an absolute toaster bath of BUFKIT with that really dry layer near the sfc even though there's plenty of snow growth taking place around 500hpa. These setups are always odd. Have good lift way upstairs but down near the ground there's a lot of dry air trying to advect in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wonder if they issue WSW with the 4 pm package. So simultaneously we'll be under WWA and a WSW..now THAT is exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Although - there's going to be a lot of dry air to contend with from 800mb to sfc on northern edge. The GFS is an absolute toaster bath of BUFKIT with that really dry layer near the sfc even though there's plenty of snow growth taking place around 500hpa. These setups are always odd. Have good lift way upstairs but down near the ground there's a lot of dry air trying to advect in. Yeah you don't want a virga band either...just a matter of getting it to overlap. I'm not surprised at the BUFKIT output on the GFS. It struggled to get precip to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm out in the middle of the runway waving massive Scooter caution flags with this one right now. 06z trends on the American guidance were not inspiring after a status quo on the 00z. That confluence to the north is really strong. We will hope that the southern energy really trends better at 12z because this one is running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This has all the makings of a weenie band near the nrn edge. Just a matter of where. Agree with this. I just fear a Feb 2010 type cutoff with the confluence. I still wake up in a sweat some nights seeing Tom's River getting pounded while smoking cirrus ten miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I'm out in the middle of the runway waving massive Scooter caution flags with this one right now. 06z trends on the American guidance were not inspiring after a status quo on the 00z. That confluence to the north is really strong. We will hope that the southern energy really trends better at 12z because this one is running out of time. Yep, like Bruce Willis in Diehard 2 waving the flag for the plane about to crash. I need to see 12z before getting excited I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Yeah you don't want a virga band either...just a matter of getting it to overlap. I'm not surprised at the BUFKIT output on the GFS. It struggled to get precip to the pike. Could turn into a sublimation special in the valley lol. We'll see there's a nice lift/snow growth signal around 450 mb but we need the sub-850 layer to cooperate. If we start advecting in 60% RH in that level it's trouble. We'll see what happens. Ensembles still bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My gut feels this one comes in a bit more amplified than the Op Euro/GFS. A amplified version of a typical overrunning system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Meanwhile, crushing ice for TN again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 My gut feels this one comes in a bit more amplified than the Op Euro/GFS. A amplified version of a typical overrunning system. This seems like a case where you give more weight to the ens than you do the ops. Caution flags will end up buried by the snowplow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This seems like a case where you give more weight to the ens than you do the ops. Caution flags will end up buried by the snowplow Anytime you have a sharp cutoff...it's important to be a little more cautious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 6z NAM stayed tyne course from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Anytime you have a sharp cutoff...it's important to be a little more cautious. Don't the ensembles tend to diffuse those sharp gradients? I know they usually make it look better than reality when we are sitting up here on the edge. A few juiced members make it look more widespread than it usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nam bufkit at home is 6.2, GFS 4.3 down at work near GON its Nam 9.5 GFS 6.2, sounds great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 This seems like a case where you give more weight to the ens than you do the ops. Caution flags will end up buried by the snowplow I hope so. But that northern stream energy is really crushing. Caution flags remain 100% full mast until there's good agreement that the southern stream over powers it. We've seen a lot of events tick back SE this year at the last second...doesn't mean it happens this time but you have to understand that this can trend either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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