North Balti Zen Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, I think my fate rides with yours, if 15 miles makes that big a difference, then that's not great. Hoping for 4, will be anxious I am sure as reports of heavy snow start in Virginia and we are waiting for it to start up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Yeah, I think my fate rides with yours, if 15 miles makes that big a difference, then that's not great. Hoping for 4, will be anxious I am sure as reports of heavy snow start in Virginia and we are waiting for it to start up here... if it isn't snowing by 6ish, then be worried. thankfully I have a super busy workday, so I won't be able to radar watch all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm hugging the NAM 00z .32qpf 06z .30 qpf 15:1 gives Westminster 4.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm feeling good for 0.1" to 14".....which is what the NWS is saying is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm feeling good for 0.1" to 14".....which is what the NWS is saying is possible. legit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I also think this may be one of the very few times where I have to submit a forecast for KSBY that includes more snow/qpf than my own backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larryweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Funny everyone goes by computer models. EVERY storm this year has pulled further north ... this one will do the same ... thinking 8-12 for Balt / DC ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Funny everyone goes by computer models. EVERY storm this year has pulled further north ... this one will do the same ... thinking 8-12 for Balt / DC ...Are you Tenmans kid?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm hugging the NAM 00z .32qpf 06z .30 qpf 15:1 gives Westminster 4.8" SREF plumes give York 0.38. Upper Baltimore County should get 0.45 based on SREF and with 13 to 1 ratio (conservative) = 5.85" N-joy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Are you Tenmans John - son?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Funny everyone goes by computer models. EVERY storm this year has pulled further north ... this one will do the same ... thinking 8-12 for Balt / DC ... Its gonna need a 100 mile north shift for 8-12 to get into Baltimore I think. I still think everyone sees at least 5 inches from this one. The GFS with its dry NW stuff definitely has me a little concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 LOL Are you Tenmans kid?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 SREF plumes give York 0.38. Upper Baltimore County should get 0.45 based on SREF and with 13 to 1 ratio (conservative) = 5.85" N-joy! Thanks, Rich! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Thanks, Rich! That will give me about .42. I will go all weenie and wish cast 20:1 ratios and call it 8.4. That's one way to be unreasonably optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Glass half empty comments: Wish this would happen on a weekend so I could really enjoy I am not in the Bulls eye I am likely just nw of the S+ observation possibilities Glass half full comments: Snow, on any day is awesome Snow and cold is better than cold and dry A few days ago I would have been lucky to see flurries People in the central and southern part of the state really are due.. I was 3 times climo last year and many were below down there.. Ok I got that out of my system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm still amazed at people who still can't find their location on a map and then question the amount being forecasted on said map...put a range on there and it's automatically the the top end they see...eh...I'm a little cranky this morning....lots of banter in the storm thread...storm mode mods go back and read now. it might be better. Jesus, some of us sleep and can't be 24/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Ellinwood nice map. And it's good to see I'm not in the damn grey coating to 1" contour for a change. this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I had a dream last night that I had a post deleted. I wasn't upset about it, but I am a little concerned that I dreamt about this place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So for me and the northern crowd it all comes down to Euro/UKIE/NAM/LWX/Ellinwood/CWG/SREF vs RGEM/GGEM/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I had a dream last night that I had a post deleted. I wasn't upset about it, but I am a little concerned that I dreamt about this place. It was probably mostly about me coming over to help you measure. It probably was not a pleasant dream . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 go back and read now. it might be better. Jesus, some of us sleep and can't be 24/7 you are paid well enough to keep it clean 24/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 It was probably mostly about me coming over to help you measure. It probably was not a pleasant dream . LOL Yeah, you can leave the yardstick at home, bro. My girlfriend measures the snow around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 So for me and the northern crowd it all comes down to Euro/UKIE/NAM/LWX/Ellinwood/CWG/SREF vs RGEM/GGEM/GFSEven the hi-res Rgem gives us around 6" with ratios. We are good for 5", don't sweat it Fozz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 LOL Yeah, you can leave the yardstick at home, bro. My girlfriend measures the snow around here. Lol smart idea. Enjoy it should be fun later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Being in Arlington, it is so nice not to stress over the R/S line or marginal temps or crap like that this storm. Just powdery snow, and a lot of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 I'm banking on ratios. Either way this will be the largest event for the season here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Lol smart idea. Enjoy it should be fun later tonight. We are already contemplating hitting the road and heading over to the eastern shore. I feel pretty confident that we won't be working tomorrow, so it might be fun to travel. Either way, it's all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 Radar hallucination time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 what no DCALEXANDRIA storm in obs thread ;-) shame on you guys after i provided guaranteed snow. I might have to curse the area to zero inches for the rest of winter for this blasphemy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 16, 2015 Share Posted February 16, 2015 what no DCALEXANDRIA storm in obs thread ;-) shame on you guys after i provided guaranteed snow. I might have to curse the area to zero inches for the rest of winter for this blasphemy. Probably should open that trend back up. Do you have anymore guarantee snow in the next week lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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