LithiaWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 850mb line going to Mexico City might actually make it to Belize or Cancun. The whole run looked wonky, I just can't see the 12Z solution verifying even that closely to reality..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Of course I get busy at work right when the 12z is running. Like Jon said, we need the high to be quicker so the Tuesday storm doesn't cut. Hard to believe we get a cutter in between to strong HP's. With the strength of the second HP, it's going to squash anything south. We're now threading the needle not to get a winter storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The ukmet looks similar to last night's run and I would guess it's giving us some wintry precip based off the 5h map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah, it is hard to believe this run as it shows boston getting a rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I feel like we are living in the middle ages, and people wake up each morning wondering what the weather will be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The ukmet looks similar to last night's run and I would guess it's giving us some wintry precip based off the 5h map. GFS is so much more amped out west with the trough, so it's an easy cut. UKMet is flatter and colder. Euro last night went the way of the GFS idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Oh Canada! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not trying to wish-cast but you would think there would be a little more suppression to the system(with a better CAD configuration). The GFS does show precip starting as a wintery mix for many. If I had to bet I would go with the cutter, but we can hope the CAD setup is stronger (better high placement). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_144_dom_precip_type.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=dom_precip_type&fhr=144&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_144_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=144&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ugh, ice storm could be incoming per 12z GGEM. Edit: Looks like the cold pulls out just in time to avoid it for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z cmc starts as some ice for Western Carolina but then goes to rain. Track is inland over NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Pretty bad ice storm for the I-85 corridor and into the foothills before going over to rain per the 12z GGEM. The P-type algorithm spits out 0.5" of ZR and 0.5-0.75" of IP for GSO, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Seasonal trend remains firmly intact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ugh, ice storm could be incoming per 12z GGEM. Edit: Looks like the cold pulls out just in time to avoid it for many of us. thats good news. Who wants an ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Seasonal trend remains firmly intact.crap a few more inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If the 12Z Euro doesn't trend SE I think this storm is done for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If the 12Z Euro doesn't trend SE I think this storm is done for. Still a lot of time left with the way the models have been going back and forth the last two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Still a lot of time left with the way the models have been going back and forth the last two days. Yeah, agree. Could easily trend toward a blizzard for the SE. Easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GEFS is a inland track also. I'm not sure about individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Accumulating backside snow for much of the NC Piedmont on the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Snow on top of pretty good lick of ice , with a few cold days to follow. Hard to find any runs where atleast nw NC doesn't have a minimum of several hours front end mix of ice and or snow. Shutout in this neck of woods is gonna end Tuesday even if it's half inch of slop wiped out by 33 degree rain, and that's worse case scenerio as I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If the 12Z Euro doesn't trend SE I think this storm is done for. Models waffling too much to make that statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Gotta love how the GGEM just drives that surface low through the strong wedge east of the APPS. A wedge of that strength isn't going anywhere at least as fast as the model breaks it down. Most likely that inland low would weaken then jump to the coast. Not saying the huge icestorm the model shows will be correct, just pointing out a major error in the meteorology of the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah, agree. Could easily trend toward a blizzard for the SE. Easily. Sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think the best case scenerio for the Tuesday system is, for the standard CAD areas of NC/SC to get a front end wintry mix before the cold scours out. I'm rooting against it as I'd rather keep the shutout in tact for MBY. History!! With the seasonal pattern so far, and the ensemble members showing all the cuts, for that reason, I'm out. (shark tank reference). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Sarcasm? Dripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Dripping.Like a cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Models waffling too much to make that statement That is true but I've lived here for over 42 years and can probably count on one hand the amount of times if that many that a storm track has trended SE around here to give us a winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GEFS mean tracks it through central PA. It's hard to imagine this will track SE of us, but I don't think it's going to track through central PA and west of NE. Big HP sliding in should end up shoving this more east, maybe an Apps runner. 6-7 days away still, the final outcome will be a lot different than what it's showing today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 582dm heights in central Florida,forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'll thought the GFS was a perfect example of trying to send a storm into an arctic air mass but due to the simple physics it keeps deferring to additional low-pressure development off to the south and east. I think in reality what you will end up having is a system that's going to cut through the Midsouth and then up the Apps...and even that could be in question. In my opinion that kind of scenario would favor some kind of snow to ice scenario in North Carolina on Tuesday. The models right now just do not have a clue it all about the airmass that will lingering above us and just to our north. The GFS is going to struggle with this until at least Friday or Saturday. We will have to end up using the short range models eventually to try to nail the track of Tuesday's event. If you are living in western North Carolina or upstate South Carolina this could be the best setup for winter weather that we have seen all season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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