Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Of course I get busy at work right when the 12z is running.  Like Jon said, we need the high to be quicker so the Tuesday storm doesn't cut.  Hard to believe we get a cutter in between to strong HP's.  With the strength of the second HP, it's going to squash anything south.

We're now threading the needle not to get a winter storm...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Snow on top of pretty good lick of ice , with a few cold days to follow. Hard to find any runs where atleast nw NC doesn't have a minimum of several hours front end mix of ice and or snow. Shutout in this neck of woods is gonna end Tuesday even if it's half inch of slop wiped out by 33 degree rain, and that's worse case scenerio as I see it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Gotta love how the GGEM just drives that surface low through the strong wedge east of the APPS. A wedge of that strength isn't going anywhere at least as fast as the model breaks it down. Most likely that inland low would weaken then jump to the coast.

 

Not saying the huge icestorm the model shows will be correct, just pointing out a major error in the meteorology of the model.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the best case scenerio for the Tuesday system is, for the standard CAD areas of NC/SC to get a front end wintry mix before the cold scours out.  I'm rooting against it as I'd rather keep the shutout in tact for MBY. History!! 

 

With the seasonal pattern so far, and the ensemble members showing all the cuts, for that reason, I'm out. (shark tank reference). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GEFS mean tracks it through central PA. It's hard to imagine this will track SE of us, but I don't think it's going to track through central PA and west of NE. Big HP sliding in should end up shoving this more east, maybe an Apps runner. 6-7 days away still, the final outcome will be a lot different than what it's showing today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'll thought the GFS was a perfect example of trying to send a storm into an arctic air mass but due to the simple physics it keeps deferring to additional low-pressure development off to the south and east.

I think in reality what you will end up having is a system that's going to cut through the Midsouth and then up the Apps...and even that could be in question.

In my opinion that kind of scenario would favor some kind of snow to ice scenario in North Carolina on Tuesday.

The models right now just do not have a clue it all about the airmass that will lingering above us and just to our north.

The GFS is going to struggle with this until at least Friday or Saturday. We will have to end up using the short range models eventually to try to nail the track of Tuesday's event.

If you are living in western North Carolina or upstate South Carolina this could be the best setup for winter weather that we have seen all season

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...