January 26-28 Blizzard Observations/Nowcast

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I think you're on drugs if you look at that radar and think NYC doesn't get the goods. 

New NAM is way east of the 18z.  FWIW.  Seemed to init fine too.

[Damage In Tolland]

They probably should have kept you in the 24-36. I think adjusting out the Euro...you end up very close as does Will and Steve to the jack.

I could be wrong, but I expect the sw edge of the heaviest stuff later tonight to be further NE and that'll help you. Instead of where it is on this map, halfway or more towards the black line.

I don't think there's any doubt this thing is running a line east of say the NAM..and maybe Euro.

Man I hope you are right. I've had a few folks( that I really respect)let me know that they think that area you outlined is going to do very well. You never want to rely on a thin band.. Something has been telling me it's a wide area of big snows with this

[Cold Miser]

1.1" / 0.12" w.e. as of about 815 here in West Hartford

I see NBC CT is set up at the motel down the hill from me here in Brooklyn.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1.1" / 0.12" w.e. as of about 815 here in West Hartford

Ryan what is snow growth like there?

[tavwtby]

Just hit 2" and had a gust of I approximate 40mph, no anemometer, but it looks like everytime the radar fills in here, it breaks up again. Hoping that intensity keeps its westward expansion.

[JC-CT]

New NAM is way east of the 18z.  FWIW.  Seemed to init fine too.

 

LMFAO

 

100 miles east

[HoarfrostHubb]

Whole town? I am in scituate for the night.

Not sure. There was a story on WCVB I saw via twitter. I asked about that but no response

@WCVB: Video: National Grid to cut power to some coastal communities http://t.co/lW8QBFDk2N

[HoarfrostHubb]

Cutting power, as in F8ck you homeowner's we are just going to cut your power so go ahead and freeze just in case there is a fire?

I think just for during the worst winds

[SJonesWX]

snow doesn't want to come too far north into NH.  looks like it is getting eaten by dry air.  Could someone comfort me and tell me it actually will start to snow?  cold here 16 with a dp of 4

i noticed the same thing on radar, looks like it is hitting a wall. the guy on WMUR said it would take a few hours to get through the virga. i laughed and thought no way, it will happen fast. turns out that the guy who gets paid to predict the weather was right, and i was wrong.

[N. OF PIKE]

. 1-2"/hr

EZ  in the deep yellows

[N. OF PIKE]

Cold front from this bad boy Just cleared The Bay OF PIGS , Cuba

[Clinch Leatherwood]

LMFAO

 

100 miles east

 

There's always the chance that one of these runs "is" the run where this nonsense NE stuff stops...this may be it.  But one of the west outliers just came pretty ENE hard.  Matters not for most.

 

Man I hope you are right. I've had a few folks( that I really respect)let me know that they think that area you outlined is going to do very well. You never want to rely on a thin band.. Something has been telling me it's a wide area of big snows with this

 

I don't think it'll be a thin line, I think the actual back edge band will be, but this storm is so strong and so slow moving it'll keep slamming lines west.    Big winners to the north too...NH/Maine looking better, and better.

[JC-CT]

There's always the chance that one of these runs "is" the run where this nonsense NE stuff stops...this may be it.  But one of the west outliers just came pretty ENE hard.  Matters not for most.

 

 

I don't think it'll be a thin line, I think the actual back edge band will be, but this storm is so strong and so slow moving it'll keep slamming lines west.    Big winners to the north too...NH/Maine looking better, and better.

 

Number of reasons to believe the NAM: 0.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well the Nam and Rgem both performed badly. HRRR is correcting itself and Elvis is still the king it appears

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Number of reasons to believe the NAM: 0.

 

#1 reason is right here (at least in the sense that think centerline-ene models.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20150127&endTime=-1&duration=6

[mahk_webstah]

i noticed the same thing on radar, looks like it is hitting a wall. the guy on WMUR said it would take a few hours to get through the virga. i laughed and thought no way, it will happen fast. turns out that the guy who gets paid to predict the weather was right, and i was wrong.

but latest frames show the steady area in SE NH is now moving quickly NW.

 

You know, I am used to snow coming in from the sw and s at the start of a storm and the se and e later in the storm.  Cool that this one is coming in straight from the se.

[Baroclinic Zone]

METAR KTAN 270152Z AUTO 03012G22KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV007 M02/M03 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP114 P0005 T10171028

Moderate/heavy snows. Gust now up to 25mph.

[JC-CT]

#1 reason is right here (at least in the sense that think centerline-ene models.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20150127&endTime=-1&duration=6

 

It is a blind squirrel

[moneypitmike]

New NAM is way east of the 18z.  FWIW.  Seemed to init fine too.

 

Yeah--it really blows.

 

You can see the NW periphery just getting eaten away by the cold dry air.  Hopefully that'll change.  But my enthusiasm is dampened by seeing that on radar and the big shift east on the NAM.

 

14.5/11

[weathercoins]

CNN just said, from NYC, "we have 24 hours of snow left! If we get half an inch an hour, that's 12 inches! If we get an inch an hour, which is likely, thats 24 additional inches here, and maybe more!" 

 

[SJonesWX]

but latest frames show the steady area in SE NH is now moving quickly NW.

 

You know, I am used to snow coming in from the sw and s at the start of a storm and the se and e later in the storm.  Cool that this one is coming in straight from the se.

yeah it is makingprogress, taking its sweet time, which is fine as long as it wants to take its sweet time getting through the area. i snowmobile up your way, hoping to get out on the trail next weekend!

[Cold Miser]

CNN just said, from NYC, "we have 24 hours of snow left! If we get half an inch an hour, that's 12 inches! If we get an inch an hour, which is likely, thats 24 additional inches here, and maybe more!" 

 

lol.  Someone was just paid to do that math.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yeah--it really blows.

 

You can see the NW periphery just getting eaten away by the cold dry air.  Hopefully that'll change.  But my enthusiasm is dampened by seeing that on radar and the big shift east on the NAM.

 

14.5/11

 

You're in a great spot.  You're going to be playing with the banding tomorrow, but you should do very well in a few hours.

[Cold Miser]

lol at the NBC 30 image on FB showing 30-50 inches in CT.  I am not able to post images here, but I can only guess that it is a doctored image.

[ice1972]

Oh man the goods are on the way.....might be gearing up and taking a walk later.....take some pics and video.....just awesome

[moneypitmike]

You're in a great spot.  You're going to be playing with the banding tomorrow, but you should do very well in a few hours.

 

Thanks for the uplift.  The radar and NAM really stomped on my buzz! 

[N. OF PIKE]

CF Georgetown-W middleton-Woburn-Waltham-Wellesley-Millis Drifting East ward last hour  

[Ginx snewx]

Snow really picking up even more here now but the winds ramping up is even more impressive. I'm sustained at 23mph gusting to 36 right now, starting to hear a constant low roar. visibility really dropping with those gust down to prob 1/8 mi. Temp 27 with a DP of 27. I'd estimate a little more than 2" judging by eye.

nice

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Yeah--it really blows.

 

You can see the NW periphery just getting eaten away by the cold dry air.  Hopefully that'll change.  But my enthusiasm is dampened by seeing that on radar and the big shift east on the NAM.

 

14.5/11

 

 

You're in a great spot.  You're going to be playing with the banding tomorrow, but you should do very well in a few hours.

 

My DP's are climbing out here so that is a good sign that the cold dry air is starting to give in.

 

Most forecasts didn't have us rocking out here until after 11pm so no worries.

 

Once the better banding pivots in snow growth will improve and we're off to the races.  Of course Mike may be asleep by then but he'll be up for the 4am shellacking.