nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 4km NAM start time around noon as well. DC 0.15-0.20, Balt 0.2, isolated 0.3 along the M/D border. 0.25-0.4 on the eastern shore. M/D line stays below freezing throughout event. Even central MD looks to be 32-33 during precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Maybe we can get another late event winter storm warning somewhere. Elevation could sneak out a good total. Or banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Maybe we can get another late event winter storm warning somewhere. Elevation could sneak out a good total. Or banding. Last clipper ended up a little south of even the last runs. Timing is a bit worse this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You don't understand forecast confidence. For your profession, that is true. But I don't see how you are differentiating your product from the others that are available. Comment not intended as an insult....just seems of low utility when you put something like that out, when you state low confidence in your assessment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Looks like NE MD, N DE, and esp SNJ get NAM jackpot...4" or a tad more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I better see deck pics from Parkton tomorrow. Working from home, so good chance. Will probably post to Twitter though, so be sure to check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 ACY big winner on NAM http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kacy.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Last clipper ended up a little south of even the last runs. Timing is a bit worse this time.Timing is my main concern... Tho the city is still torching right now hopefully it cools a bit. One plus is a little more clear skies tonight. I'd probably bet earlier than the 0z model consensus.. Noon seems awful late but I'm on my phone and have only briefly looked at NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For your profession, that is true. But I don't see how you are differentiating your product from the others that are available. Comment not intended as an insult....just seems of low utility when you put something like that out, when you state low confidence in your assessment. He could put out a forecast with 100% confidence, but it would have an inch of snow in Blue Knob PA, and nothing else anywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 NAM is a beauty for Baltimore/Harford/Cecil. Half of that and I'd be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Timing is my main concern... Tho the city is still torching right now hopefully it cools a bit. One plus is a little more clear skies tonight. I'd probably bet earlier than the 0z model consensus.. Noon seems awful late but I'm on my phone and have only briefly looked at NCEP. Typical radiating spots are doing well tonight, some upper 20s out there. I'm 37 and it looks like some 40s in the district proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Typical radiating spots are doing well tonight, some upper 20s out there. I'm 37 and it looks like some 40s in the district proper. 28/26 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Typical radiating spots are doing well tonight, some upper 20s out there. I'm 37 and it looks like some 40s in the district proper. Yeah, I'm 30.6. It's go back up some when clouds come in but I'm surprised by how quickly the temps fell. I was 51 earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 38/28 here. Running behind HRRR but in line with 4k NAM so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 He could put out a forecast with 100% confidence, but it would have an inch of snow in Blue Knob PA, and nothing else anywhere else. Nice hyperbole....not many things have 100% confidence. I don't think you understand my point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 29 here. I'm surprised by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm at 31.2/28..satisfactory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 HRRR has temps getting up to around 40F tomorrow at 11AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Typical radiating spots are doing well tonight, some upper 20s out there. I'm 37 and it looks like some 40s in the district proper.All the local wxbugs are 41. Warmer than DCA! and not too pretty dews either. But it is considerably colder as soon as you get out of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 My PWS says I'm already at 32. I think its running low, but a few other stations are running at 34 currently. And based on other obs, maybe that's not out of line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ecosense Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 How does the timing look for Lancaster. I have 4 wetlands to survey tomorrow and want to beat any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 JB's map. Looks in line with guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 For your profession, that is true. But I don't see how you are differentiating your product from the others that are available. Comment not intended as an insult....just seems of low utility when you put something like that out, when you state low confidence in your assessment. It's all a matter of forecast spread. Think of forecast confidence as a run of the forecast models. Ten models run, four give 1-2", three give less than 1", and three give more than 2". That means there's a 40% forecast confidence that it will be 1-2", which is also the most likely scenario. My forecast is what I think is most likely, but there's a large amount of spread in the possible amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 38/26. Looks good for all my DC north friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 JB's map. Looks in line with guidance. no lollis anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 We had flakes here this afternoon. It wasn't that thrilling. I haven't seen one for a while. My bar is very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 RGEM has the STRIPE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Jbs map looks ok. The haves/have nots might be separated by 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's all a matter of forecast spread. Think of forecast confidence as a run of the forecast models. Ten models run, four give 1-2", three give less than 1", and three give more than 2". That means there's a 40% forecast confidence that it will be 1-2", which is also the most likely scenario. My forecast is what I think is most likely, but there's a large amount of spread in the possible amounts. Thanks for the explanation. That makes sense. But only one solution can be "right", and perhaps not even one of the ten hypothetical model runs you refer to.... I think your map in and of itself was fine. But when that confidence key is there and has 40% or less, I just take it to mean you may be struggling to interpret the available data or not willing to put a stake in the ground. As you know, there are tons of weather forecasting products out there...govt, private sector, TV, other media, amateurs, on and on....I don't see how you differentiate yourself when you say here's my map but I'm 40% or less confident in the parameters. But you are right in that I don't understand weather forecasting confidence intervals or utilization. I admit that freely. It must suck to be a pro in the weather business when you don't really know what will happen 18-24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 This one will divide the NoVa and MD crowd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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