Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 My facebook forecast for DC proper https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow Final and only forecast for tomorrow's clipper for DC - The Skinny: 1-2", with the higher amounts in Upper NW, and the lower amounts downtown.When will it start?: 10 am to 11 am is best guess. When will it end?: Late afternoon.Will it be heavy?: probably not, but wouldn't be surprised to see a period(s) of steady moderate snow.Will it stick?: Yes to grass, decks, car tops, maybe to roads and sidewalks. Could depend where you are. Main roads probably won't become entirely snow covered, but could be some stickage.What will the temps be?: 32-34Chances of at least 1" - 40% downtown, 60% above 200'Chances of at least 2" - 25% downtown, 40% above 200'Chances of just a mangled slushy dusting: 30% downtown, 20% upper NWChances of no snowflakes -5%Confidence Level from 1 to 10: 4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I've screenshotted where Jason and Wes shot me down last week on the clipper. It'll appear tomorrow at some point if it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Good post Matt. Nowcast will be fun. 1" on elevated and grass is my bar. Ian, I'm with you. Vortography is a solid discipline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Good post Matt. Nowcast will be fun. 1" on elevated and grass is my bar. Ian, I'm with you. Vortography is a solid discipline This one had an off run or three but it was actually pretty consistent from range that it would be about where it is on tonight's models. A little surprising actually. I don't fully believe in atmospheric memory or whatever but I think there are seasonal trends that probably make a second event like this more likely if the opportunity presents itself. Still plenty of time for a bust. And partly I forced myself back to basics after waffling too much on the past two events. I think the small ones in particular have a tendency to be analyzed to a point you confuse yourself because you see trends within acceptable error and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 39/31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Good forecast. Any padding is a good thing. Thanks...I kind of screwed up how I conveyed my percentages, but I got the idea across... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 39/31 terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 DTK= Don't Think Knows? Ok? I don't get it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 This one had an off run or three but it was actually pretty consistent from range that it would be about where it is on tonight's models. A little surprising actually. I don't fully believe in atmospheric memory or whatever but I think there are seasonal trends that probably make a second event like this more likely if the opportunity presents itself. Still plenty of time for a bust. And partly I forced myself back to basics after waffling too much on the past two events. I think the small ones in particular have a tendency to be analyzed to a point you confuse yourself because you see trends within acceptable error and such. Globals cover the globe and 50 miles one way or the other is meaningless to their overall skill. I think all of us are guilty at blaming a 50 mile bust on a global. But that's not really fair or realistic. I don't see anybody saying the gfs or euro blew a high temp in Pakistan at 4 day leads around here but I'm sure it happens often. Wes has been paramount in helping me understand models vs reality. One simple rule to live by is when a vort or lp tracks above In winter, expect the worst. When it slides below, hope for the best. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Ok? I don't get it.... me neither failed attempt at humor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Globals cover the globe and 50 miles one way or the other is meaningless to their overall skill. I think all of us are guilty at blaming a 50 mile bust on a global. But that's not really fair or realistic. I don't see anybody saying the gfs or euro blew a high temp in Pakistan at 4 day leads around here but I'm sure it happens often. Wes has been paramount in helping me understand models vs reality. One simple rule to live by is when a vort or lp tracks above In winter, expect the worst. When it slides below, hope for the best. Good stuff. It is mediocre with east coast snowstorms, but it is actually rock solid with Islamabad MOS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Globals cover the globe and 50 miles one way or the other is meaningless to their overall skill. I think all of us are guilty at blaming a 50 mile bust on a global. But that's not really fair or realistic. I don't see anybody saying the gfs or euro blew a high temp in Pakistan at 4 day leads around here but I'm sure it happens often. Wes has been paramount in helping me understand models vs reality. One simple rule to live by is when a vort or lp tracks above In winter, expect the worst. When it slides below, hope for the best. Good stuff. and when it rains 1/4" instead of 3/4", very few, if any, notice but had that been snow, then everyone notices, weenies and sane people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I might get extremely lucky on Wednesday and manage a coating of slushy snow on the car top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 27/24 - lots of frosty ice out there on the grass and cars! Ground is frozen in shaded spots. FINALLY finished Christmas Light removal so they would not be caked under that slushy inch or 2 of slop! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 37/31...getting colder here in UHI hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 37/31...getting colder here in UHI hell but, you've got some great restaurants don't forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It is mediocre with east coast snowstorms, but it is actually rock solid with Islamabad MOS.... I should feel guilty about only using global models for their output on 35k sq ft of land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It is mediocre with east coast snowstorms, but it is actually rock solid with Islamabad MOS.... I lol'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You know what solution is "right" here? Taking this to banter. I thought our exchange was civil and I learned a little bit from him. I understand the process and challenges better, and have increased my empathy for those in the weather trade. Ellinwood is my third favorite wood, after hickory and morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It's humid out there and a frosty 30*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 My facebook forecast for DC proper https://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow Final and only forecast for tomorrow's clipper for DC - The Skinny: 1-2", with the higher amounts in Upper NW, and the lower amounts downtown. When will it start?: 10 am to 11 am is best guess. When will it end?: Late afternoon. Will it be heavy?: probably not, but wouldn't be surprised to see a period(s) of steady moderate snow. Will it stick?: Yes to grass, decks, car tops, maybe to roads and sidewalks. Could depend where you are. Main roads probably won't become entirely snow covered, but could be some stickage. What will the temps be?: 32-34 Chances of at least 1" - 40% downtown, 60% above 200' Chances of at least 2" - 25% downtown, 40% above 200' Chances of just a mangled slushy dusting: 30% downtown, 20% upper NW Chances of no snowflakes -5% Confidence Level from 1 to 10: 4.5 You could have saved yourself some time and just posted "It might snow a little bit tomorrow but I really have no idea on the specifics" A good title for you post would have been "Here's where I throw spaghetti" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 it ain't like there's no cold air lurking to our north http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=de&inv=0&t=cur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 it's a frosty 30* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 It is mediocre with east coast snowstorms, but it is actually rock solid with Islamabad MOS.... I should let my uncle know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 You could have saved yourself some time and just posted "It might snow a little bit tomorrow but I really have no idea on the specifics" A good title for you post would have been "Here's where I throw spaghetti" You have 3 computers...Of course I'm never going to out-forecast you..not one...not 2...but 3....I'm still amazed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro is bullish on the clipper...looks pretty wet and cold...close to 0.25" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Euro is bullish on the clipper...looks pretty wet and cold...close to 0.25" for DCIts been that way, let's see if we can close the deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 34/31...nice drop...DCA is 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 34/31...nice drop...DCA is 35Temps hopefully won't rise too much when we cloud up but we have done well thus far on the decline. Some burbs down to 27/28 and its pretty clear out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Temps hopefully won't rise too much when we cloud up but we have done well thus far on the decline. Some burbs down to 27/28 and its pretty clear out here. maybe we'll get more from the clipper than the coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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