84 Hour NAM Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 It had to be done. #ClipperTown2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I hope this thread isn't a jinx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I hope this thread isn't a jinx... No such thing. 2-4". I am feeling this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 At this point a jinx is probably what we need....in order to remove the jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro ens targets dc to Balt for max qpf from clipper. Prob about .15 if you add up the panels but it's an ensemble so it smoothes out things. Good vort pass. I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro ens not impressive. Around .05 mean qpf. Ok lp track but pretty weak. PSU, there's a lot of rain solutions..05 frozen on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro ens not impressive. Around .05 mean qpf. Ok lp track but pretty weak. I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Is it time to hammer the thread starter yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm out. I'm going down with the ship. I'm optimistic and in no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Is it time to hammer the thread starter yet? Give it another 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm going down with the ship. I'm optimistic and in no matter what.I'm not really out. I'm just vort pass chasing. The rest will work if that does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'm not really out. I'm just vort pass chasing. The rest will work if that does. That's all that matters now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Euro ens not impressive. Around .05 mean qpf. Ok lp track but pretty weak. PSU, there's a lot of rain solutions..05 frozen on the mean. I think member #47 has the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I think member #47 has the right idea. Huggin till 0z. Ian's right anyways. Small events are tough on globals. Good h5 look. Watch and wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted January 18, 2015 Author Share Posted January 18, 2015 NAM is a little north of perfect but an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 NAM is a little north of perfect but an improvement rainer....but a pretty rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 rainer....but a pretty rain NAM is actually encouraging in a weird way. It's more impressed with the clipper. It's north now, but it's still out there for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 More impressive vort on the NAM, just need it to pass below us. Still time, but for now I like the stronger look. I will gamble with rain vs snow. No interest in a meager storm with <1 inch again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 rainer....but a pretty rain Looks like snow in N. MD? Maybe sleet south? Kinda hard to tell from the maps, but 925 right around 0C, with 850s -2C and a sfc with low 30s. I think that's accumulating snow north of Baltimore, even if the clown maps show otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Nam is the solution we want only need it to be further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Looks like snow in N. MD? Maybe sleet south? Kinda hard to tell from the maps. Not really important at this point. Its outside of the NAM's wheelhouse. I like the stronger look, even if it increases the chances of a warmer outcome. I will take more rain before rooting for a weakling to deliver a pathetic half inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Not really important at this point. Its outside of the NAM's wheelhouse. I like the stronger look, even if it increases the chances of a warmer outcome. I will take more rain before rooting for a weakling to deliver a pathetic half inch of snow. Oh, I know. It's just fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Nam turned the corner with the low off the coast. Likely just the nam being amp happy beyond 48 hours but one of the ways for us to get a good qpf hit from a clipper is rapid development to the se and turning the corner. Globals all show the low setting sail for Ireland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Gfs turns the corner. Still not organized enough for us but trends sure appear to be going towards and more amped and stronger storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Gfs turns the corner. Still not organized enough for us but trends sure appear to be going towards and more amped and stronger storm This. GFS looks better as well. Still a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 This. GFS looks better as well. Still a long ways to go. Best look yet @ h5 from the gfs. Could end up being more potent than we think. I'm sure nyc/li are praying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 Best look yet @ h5 from the gfs. Could end up being more potent than we think. I'm sure nyc/li are praying. I didn't see the Euro...is the euro vort more south vs GFS/NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I didn't see the Euro...is the euro vort more south vs GFS/NAM? EPS has the low due east of VA/NC border at 72 hours...850 temps look good. Dont know about the surface temps or qpf details. Ens Aligns well with the op. Same general look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I didn't see the Euro...is the euro vort more south vs GFS/NAM? Gfs came in sharper than the euro and previous runs. About the same distance south but the euro was more elongated and not as amped in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 18, 2015 Share Posted January 18, 2015 I'll take whatever snow I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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