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Historic Lake Effect Snowstorm


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The sharpest edge to a band will ALMOST always be opposite of the motion.  (ie sharp northern edge when moving south, and vice versa)

 

Interesting, though it was nearly stationary much of yesterday yet had a sharp northern gradient. I would guess that there are probably multiple factors contributing to that appearance on radar.

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From my in-laws in Gardenville in West Seneca, yesterday at 10 AM. Heavy snow for well over 12 hours after this, so I can't imagine how it looks now.

1zytpmp.jpg

That's from their front door, about 24" above the ground level. The garage doors across the street give you a sense of total depth.

The dot between the trees is a mailbox.

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My boss is going to attempt and pick me up and bring me to work.  We'll see how this goes. 

 

Lol.

 

They closed my work and my training class for today. He is going to let me know about tomorrow, but when the next event I am thinking the same thing.

 

Tomorrow is even in question??

 

Signed,

Boggled in the mid-Atlantic

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Updated totals:

 

000
NOUS41 KBUF 191509
PNSBUF
NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-200309-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1009 AM EST WED NOV 19 2014

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...
5 N ALLEGANY 1.4 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...
1 S DUNKIRK 18.7 1218 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER
DUNKIRK 13.0 600 AM 11/19 TRAINED SPOTTER
FREDONIA 13.0 800 AM 11/19 EMERGENCY MNGR
1 WNW FREDONIA 9.1 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
4 SSW RIPLEY 4.1 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
3 SSE FREWSBURG 2.5 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
JAMESTOWN 1.2 700 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER

...ERIE COUNTY...
4 S CHEEKTOWAGA 65.0 1004 AM 11/19 ESTIMATED
LANCASTER 63.0 944 AM 11/19 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 SE LANCASTER 60.0 600 PM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA
GARDENVILLE 60.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
WEST SENECA 57.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 W WEST SENECA 51.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
ELMA 51.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S CHEEKTOWAGA 51.0 330 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
ORCHARD PARK 48.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
WALES CENTER 48.0 946 AM 11/19 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N HAMBURG 48.0 905 AM 11/19 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 SW ALDEN 48.0 1252 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E LANCASTER 47.0 519 PM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 WSW ELMA 46.0 1215 PM 11/18 COCORAHS
4 SSE BUFFALO 45.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
2 SSW BLASDELL 44.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
DEPEW 42.0 1200 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
LACKAWANNA 42.0 900 AM 11/19 SOCIAL MEDIA
EAST AURORA 36.0 707 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N LANCASTER 36.0 945 AM 11/19 TRAINED SPOTTER
ALDEN 34.0 106 PM 11/18 NWS EMPLOYEE
WEST FALLS 29.0 318 PM 11/18 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 SW BLASDELL 27.0 335 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 N LANCASTER 25.0 1006 AM 11/19 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 W COLDEN 18.7 730 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER
2 S AKRON 17.5 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
SLOAN 16.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
DERBY 14.0 100 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
BOSTON 12.0 944 AM 11/19 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NE BOSTON 10.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
2 SE GLENWOOD 8.3 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
CLARENCE 7.0 944 AM 11/19 TRAINED SPOTTER
5 NE SPRINGVILLE 6.6 700 PM 11/18 COOP OBSERVER
NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT 6.2 650 AM 11/19 ASOS
4 NE BUFFALO 6.2 800 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER
BUFFALO 6.0 945 AM 11/19 NORTHEAST SIDE
4 N BUFFALO 3.5 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
KENMORE 3.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 N CHEEKTOWAGA 2.0 1005 AM 11/19 SOCIAL MEDIA
7 N BUFFALO 1.5 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
TONAWANDA 0.9 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
EAST AMHERST 0.8 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS

...GENESEE COUNTY...
CORFU 40.0 800 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
DARIEN 36.0 830 PM 11/18 EMERGENCY MNGR
PAVILION 13.5 544 PM 11/18 TRAINED SPOTTER
STAFFORD 11.7 700 AM 11/19 NWS EMPLOYEE

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...
PHILADELPHIA 22.0 1002 AM 11/19 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 S THERESA 16.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
5 SW CARTHAGE 13.5 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
WATERTOWN 12.8 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
1 S WATERTOWN 8.0 1058 PM 11/18 COCORAHS

...LEWIS COUNTY...
BEAVER FALLS 16.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
HARRISVILLE 15.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
1 NW CONSTABLEVILLE 9.5 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
HIGHMARKET 6.2 349 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER
PORT LEYDEN 6.0 445 AM 11/19 TRAINED SPOTTER

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...
CALEDONIA 5.0 330 PM 11/18 PUBLIC
AVON 4.4 809 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER
4 WSW DANSVILLE 1.9 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
1 ENE DANSVILLE 0.3 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS

...MONROE COUNTY...
ROCHESTER INTL ARPT 3.1 650 AM 11/19 ASOS
2 NE WEBSTER 1.3 800 AM 11/18 COOP OBSERVER

...NIAGARA COUNTY...
NIAGARA FALLS 1.6 700 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER
1 NNE NORTH TONAWAND 0.5 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS

...ONTARIO COUNTY...
3 W GENEVA 1.3 700 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER

...OSWEGO COUNTY...
8 NNW REDFIELD 16.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
5 ESE OSWEGO 3.0 700 AM 11/19 COCORAHS
BENNETTS BRIDGE 2.0 700 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER

...WYOMING COUNTY...
WYOMING 23.6 700 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER
6 SW WARSAW 10.0 700 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER
3 N SILVER SPRINGS 3.0 700 AM 11/19 COOP OBSERVER

$

HITCHCOCK

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BUF updated their map... 24-30" expected for the same areas that were hit yesterday

I know that the parameters are not as impressive as they were for the first event, but keep in mind the event that has just recently concluded was originally forecast to total about 2-3' in the hardest hit areas.

IOW, extreme amounts are only nowcast, not forecast.

 

Who knows.....

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One thing I noticed before Round 1 was that the NWS 4km WRF model out of Burlington was forecasting 5 inches of QPF just south of Buffalo and with the snow totals we are seeing, it seemed to have done justice.  Now, the most recent BTV 4km WRF is forecasting an additional 3.50 inches of QPF from Orchard Park ENE to East Aurora and Atica.  

My thinking is for a bullseye of 30 to 40 inches (and perhaps more?) from Hamburg & Orchard Park to East Aurora and points ENE.  Also, I think the northern gradient will be very tight once more with amounts tapering off to 15-20 inches near Lackawanna and 5 inches for south Buffalo and finally 1 to 3 inches for downtown and the northtowns of Buffalo.    

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One thing I noticed before Round 1 was that the NWS 4km WRF model out of Burlington was forecasting 5 inches of QPF just south of Buffalo and with the snow totals we are seeing, it seemed to have done justice.

 

It did not. 5" of QPF with these ratios would've resulted in much higher totals.

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Been following this from eastern NC and all I can say is WOW. Thanks all for the continuing pictures and videos. Those roofs look scary, can't imagine all that weight on them especially once the sun comes out and starts melting it and making the snow heavier. Stay safe all those who are in the thick of this.

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