iceman56
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Everything posted by iceman56
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Very happy with Colebrook/Columbia, NH. Got 3730' Mount Bunnell (formerly Blue Mt.) out my window when I'm there. Surrounded by the 28K acre Bunnell wildlife preserve. Dead quiet most of the time and a unique sunset every day (when the sun is out which is rare this time of year). Annual average snowfall ~ 150".
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Summer 2020 Banter and random observations
iceman56 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in New England
Did that last week. Wife drove, I sat in the middle of the seat. Going up was worse as a passenger as most of the way up you're on the Great Gulf side. Got the tickets to go in the State Park building which was good to limit the crowds from the damn train, but the gift shop was a mob scene, you couldn't move. Always cool to get a bag of chips to take down and see it deflate. Pouring rain and low 40's, yet nothing showed up on radar. By the time we got back down to 5000 ft the sun was out. Nice to see the trees starting to change up there. Back in humid-ass PA this week. -
Yup, warm Nov, Dec, Jan. Backloaded Feb & Mar. He's pretty much on his own.
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Odd though, JB is expecting 2016 to be the warmest on record due to remnant El Nino warmth and the AMO not having flipped yet. He expects a global cooldown to begin in 2017.
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Starting to not care for the high numbers in that forecast.
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Following the averages to the letter it appears without considering that averages happen as the result of extremes that are pretty tough to hit 90 days out.
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Seems like he's relying on high ratios which is tough to do in March.
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Got the pattern right at 500mb, but the surface didn't respond...
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He was as pessimistic as I think I've ever seen him regarding the pattern - basically writing off winter after 2/15 unless the MJO can get to cold phases 1,2,3 which really isn't forecasted at this time. The problem is that by the time it gets there, we can be well into March and below normal temps yield us a cold rain and fog. I also think also he's giving the strat warming too much credit as it's really just a temporary shift/split rather than a disappearance of the cold pool.
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Cecily going with 20-24" in backloaded winter. Could be as low as 12" or as high as 32" depending on El Nino maintaining strength and influence. http://6abc.com/weather/cecily-tynans-winter-weather-outlook-/1082334/
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He's actually indicating an area of 6-10" shows up across eastern PA into the PHL NW burbs due to the 'reverse eddy' off the Jersey coast. Not buying the 60 degree temps showing up on some models for Wednesday either.
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Not that It can't be right, I knew he would say that before I logged on. We haven;t seem many reversals once it goes north, especially in this short a time frame.
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Good post on a weather board where we are lucky to still have a few pros contribute...
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Yeah, fixed it... duh
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Looking like anyone getting 6" west of the river will be lucky at this point.
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Gotta say that he said to take any warmups with a grain of salt and don't be surprised if any moderation features snow. What looked like 40's to near 50 for 4 or 5 days is now a single day of low 40's (Sunday) with a threat of snow on the front and back end of a storm as shown in my local P&C.
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Cecily @ 6ABC going with 30-36" in Philly metro, 36-42" LV and 18-24" at the shore. Expects mixed precip in noreasters and 1-2 degree below normal for winter. http://6abc.com/weather/cecilys-winter-weather-outlook/394035/
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Cecily steps to the plate tonight @ 11:00 which is probably Accuwx driven.
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And he still doesn't let this track go today even in the face of zero model support.
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He's going with the in-close development with east coast threats with very little coming out of the deep tropics with cooler than normal water and dry air forecasted. I think he said 9 total storms, 2-3 majors and 70-90 ACE. I see LC with similar numbers, but more focus in the gulf than east coast.
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Can't find it readily, but I think he was going 0 to plus 1 on temps around here, biased warmer late in the summer. Precip also close to normal, again biased wetter later on due to tropical influence.