Quincy Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Upgrade to SEE TEXT for far southern New England tomorrow! NAM is actually kind of bullish with convection and modest instability. Shear is certainly there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 15, 2014 Author Share Posted October 15, 2014 TOR's flying wildly all over DC now. Noyes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Thanks to the strong southerly winds with this system, BTV is up to 80F now and just set their second straight record high...and tied the all-time October max minimum last night at 68F. What an all out torch with this system... yesterday's average departures BTV +21, MPV +19, MVL +18. Today's will be even higher. This is what 3-5 standard deviation PWATs and southerly flow do. Also Berlin, NH (BML) is also up to 80F now! That's incredible for 1,200ft in northern NH in mid-October. Also pushing 80F now in the hills of southern Quebec just over the VT/NH border...even Pittsburg, NH is up to 77F. I wonder how often Pittsburg, NH hits upper 70s this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Sun's popping out now--man what a haze. Temp up 2* in the last hour or so. 68.1/67 .02" OT--just saw that the person just diagnosed with Ebola yesterday had flown from Cleveland to DFW the day before her diagnosis. Ummmm--not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 This type of system is welcome for its rainfall this time of year but there would be many broken keyboards in Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Thanks to the strong southerly winds with this system, BTV is up to 80F now and just set their second straight record high...and tied the all-time October max minimum last night at 68F. What an all out torch with this system... yesterday's average departures BTV +21, MPV +19, MVL +18. Today's will be even higher. This is what 3-5 standard deviation PWATs and southerly flow do. Also Berlin, NH (BML) is also up to 80F now! That's incredible for 1,200ft in northern NH in mid-October. Also pushing 80F now in the hills of southern Quebec just over the VT/NH border...even Pittsburg, NH is up to 77F. I wonder how often Pittsburg, NH hits upper 70s this time of year. 1979 for late season heat. CAR was 77/59 on both 10/22 and 10/23; that's around +27 for them. Ft. Kent reached 79 on the 23rd, a day when I was climbing thru the slash of a fresh timber harvest about 20 miles west of Allagash Village. Didn't expect to get soaked with sweat, or eat blackflies (weren't biting but still a nuisance in mouth, eyes, ears), the week before deer season. One year earlier I had a 7F morning in late Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Sun's popping out now--man what a haze. Temp up 2* in the last hour or so. 68.1/67 .02" OT--just saw that the person just diagnosed with Ebola yesterday had flown from Cleveland to DFW the day before her diagnosis. Ummmm--not good. Don't you think the f'n gov't would say to all those who worked on him, "No flights allowed for you until you're cleared???" WTF Clueless. On a weather note...72.5 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Let's leave ebola for OT/PR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 When can I expect my 12knot gusts? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Started to rain here outside Springfield. 73F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The rain is coming. * AT 730 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED UP TOTHREE FEET OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADS IN UTICA, NY...JUST OVER THEBORDER IN ONEIDA COUNTY. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING IS ALSOLIKELY IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The rain is coming. * AT 730 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED UP TO THREE FEET OF WATER FLOWING ACROSS ROADS IN UTICA, NY...JUST OVER THE BORDER IN ONEIDA COUNTY. AS A RESULT...FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF WESTERN HERKIMER COUNTY. This is an absolute PERFECT setup for extremely heavy rains and flooding...in fact, luckily we have been in a deficit rain wise or this really could be more extreme in terms of flood potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 This is an absolute PERFECT setup for extremely heavy rains and flooding...in fact, luckily we have been in a deficit rain wise or this really could be more extreme in terms of flood potential More extreme is more good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I have had some light rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Rain just beginning here. Nothing on the ALY radar but steady -RA as the saturated atmosphere starts to get wrung out. 66/65 now off a high of 76/68 today. Tropical appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Both Bos and Orh close to 70 degrees at 10pm in the middle of October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Threw this in the NNE thread, but I'll just leave it here too. Was still a lovely 74F at 9pm. Went for a night run, heaven! Here's a fun fact, the average temperature at BTV for today was 74F, 3 degrees ABOVE peak July Climo of 71! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Both Bos and Orh close to 70 degrees at 10pm in the middle of OctoberIt's 71/61 up here at 10pm...also 71F over in NNH at HIE/Whitefield for the 10pm obs. East Burke at 1400ft near Lyndon State also 70/63. Upper 60s to low 70s right now for the mountain valley radiators that were in the 20s a couple mornings ago. Even the 65F at SLK is darn impressive this time of evening and time of year. Their average low is probably near freezing right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The NAM should have weatherwiz posting soon about severe potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 It's 71/61 up here at 10pm...also 71F over in NNH at HIE/Whitefield for the 10pm obs. East Burke at 1400ft near Lyndon State also 70/63. Upper 60s to low 70s right now for the mountain valley radiators that were in the 20s a couple mornings ago. Even the 65F at SLK is darn impressive this time of evening and time of year. Their average low is probably near freezing right now. 31F to be exact lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The NAM should have weatherwiz posting soon about severe potential Always intriguing in these setups but I think everything just favors heavy rain too much and it will be hard to get true convection. Maybe the south coast will see some convective elements enabling stronger winds to mix down but I think we mostly see a heavy rains and not much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The NAM should have weatherwiz posting soon about severe potential HRRR pops some surface-based instability too. SEE TEXT FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I'll be sure to hide in my storm cellar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The only thing I can think of that may be interesting, is if any meso low type thingy forms like some hi-res models have. That may locally enhance stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 I'll be sure to hide in my storm cellar. I'm getting my car serviced tomorrow at noon. Should guarantee a spinup while I'm not at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 The only thing I can think of that may be interesting, is if any meso low type thingy forms like some hi-res models have. That may locally enhance stuff. Triple bunner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Triple bunner Other than that, nothing sticks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Kind of funny if this outperforms last week's pinned thread. Gunshy seems appropriate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 With these low cape/high shear setups what you really want is a window where you get some drier air working in which can either allow for the potential of sun breaking through or just enhance instability on the leading edge of the drier air. In this case there doesn't look to be much of that and sure we will have some instability in place but you have to have a sufficient amount to really get something going...the million dollar question in these setups is always "what is sufficient"...I think we will know it when we see it...the last setup was CLOSE but it was all backed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 16, 2014 Share Posted October 16, 2014 Pretty cool sat img of moisture stretching out along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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