Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Looks like a wild time of it for most on Thursday Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN · 3h3 hours ago I'm expecting localized flooding, possible damaging wind gusts, possible severe thunderstorms Thu/Thu Night. Details: http://ow.ly/CK1lk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Chance of blown over cornstalks: 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Alignment from top down on SE winds means strong winds LLJ or naught Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Alignment from top down on SE winds means strong winds LLJ or naughtThose 35-40kt H85 winds are scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Man why is everything completely hyped and blown out of proportion these days? Ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Man why is everything completely hyped and blown out of proportion these days? Ridiculous. It's our world..Yours ,mine, theirs..us as one. Sure beats boredom and close to vastness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 It's our world..Yours ,mine, theirs..us as one. Sure beats boredom and close to vastness Horrible answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Outside of any convective elements I don't see much in the way of strong winds across the region Thursday into Friday. Winds aloft aren't overly impressive and there will be a pretty sizable inversion just above the surface. If anything, we will see "stronger" wind gusts tomorrow than we will Thursday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 At least this should make for some interesting conditions in Foxboro on Thrusday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 the signal though for torrential rains is definitely there...I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3'' of rain with perhaps close to 4'' of rain in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 the signal though for torrential rains is definitely there...I wouldn't be surprised to see 2-3'' of rain with perhaps close to 4'' of rain in some spots. QPF is always a crap shoot in these setups. You can end up with a quick hitting inch or so and not much else or training convection and then all bets are off. The 12z GFS had PWAT's > 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 QPF is always a crap shoot in these setups. You can end up with a quick hitting inch or so and not much else or training convection and then all bets are off. The 12z GFS had PWAT's > 1.5" Pretty high PWATS certainly and also you have the system beginning to occlude and the strongest isentropic literally right over SNE, on both the NAM/GFS. While the strongest LLJ stays off-shore, which is one reason why for lack of wind threat with this, but that places us on the nose of the jet which will enhance llvl convergence and lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 Guess we'll see come verification . Noyes isn't one to hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Guess we'll see come verification . Noyes isn't one to hype I'm just not seeing much in the way to support strong winds or severe t'storms...to see stronger winds transported down to the surface I would like to see a bit more instability in and around the boundary layer, however, the instability is all elevated, above the boundary layer, and unless that instability can get tapped into stronger winds aren't going to mix down and it's going to be tough to develop surface-based convection I think. we could certainly see elevated storms, however, an inversion will prevent much of the winds from mixing down and the winds aren't all that strong to begin with. The system will also be transitioning to the dissipating stage so we will see occlusion occur and this will lead to weakening wind fields aloft and also lead to a weakening in forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Guess we'll see come verification . Noyes isn't one to hype Well if he actually looked at data, he wouldn't have posted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 QPF is always a crap shoot in these setups. You can end up with a quick hitting inch or so and not much else or training convection and then all bets are off. The 12z GFS had PWAT's > 1.5" Those PWATs are like 300% of normal up here...pretty decent heavy rain signal for whoever gets the best training. Looks like a widespread ~1" with the potential for 2+ wherever the best moisture stream sets-up. The whole upper level low slows down as it moves in, so the potential is there to just sit and pump moisture out of the SSE into the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Those PWATs are like 300% of normal up here...pretty decent heavy rain signal for whoever gets the best training. Looks like a widespread ~1" with the potential for 2+ wherever the best moisture stream sets-up. The whole upper level low slows down as it moves in, so the potential is there to just sit and pump moisture out of the SSE into the northeast. Yeah...juicy. +3SD to +4SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 14, 2014 Author Share Posted October 14, 2014 We do salute you close to vesters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 BDL's highest surface wind speed according to nam bufkit is 12 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 BDL's highest surface wind speed according to nam bufkit is 12 knotsBut the trees are fully leaved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 But the trees are fully leaved. BOX office will be inundated with reports of fallen leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewbeer Posted October 14, 2014 Share Posted October 14, 2014 Looking forward to some heavy rain. Whitewater paddling season is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Safe to say the 18z GFS is wet. NAM still a widespread good drink, with more localized SOS heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Going to be impressive rainfall region wide but favors eastern half for jackpot. Really cranks as it exits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 If you want a chuckle, check out one of the top NAM-based analogs for Thursday. 10/3/79 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I better go out and tie down the plastic lawn chairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 15, 2014 Share Posted October 15, 2014 I am just hoping for sports events cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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