weatherwiz Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 5% TOR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 5% tor prob in slight risk area, 2% rest of SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Tomorrow should be a fun day...Music class from 10:05 until 11:20 and then Calc III from 4:30 to 6:20 then the Bruins play so it's a 40 night...going to be EXHAUSTED. Getting some sleep now...skywarn OPS set for 2 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 On the outside looking in. Hopefully this isn't a of things to come in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 ...DELMARVA/NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED /INCLUDING COLLABORATION WITH WFO/S MT HOLLY...UPTON AND BOSTON/ FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS NERN NJ THROUGH LONG ISLAND /INCLUDING NYC/ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS CONFIDENCE IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF AN OBSERVED WLY 500-MB JET OF 80 KT AT JACKSON KY EARLY THIS EVENING PER THE VAD. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL MOVE INTO NRN DELMARVA BY 06Z AND THEN INTO LONG ISLAND AND SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z. THIS MIDLEVEL JET AND AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ UP TO 50-60 KT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT WILL OCCUR AS THE CURRENT UPPER OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER NY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR QLCS DEVELOPMENT. 23Z RAP SOUNDINGS FROM THE VICINITY OF NYC AT 07Z INDICATED EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 250 M2/S2 WITH SIMILAR VALUES INTO SOUTHEAST MA /NEAR NEW BEDFORD/ BY 12Z. THIS FACTOR SUPPORTS THE TORNADO THREAT...WHILE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. 00Z UPTON NY SOUNDING INDICATED SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH PARCELS BEING SURFACE-BASED. STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ INTO THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO BE SURFACE BASED...WITH MUCAPE ALREADY AROUND 600 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 Oh SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 ...DELMARVA/NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED /INCLUDING COLLABORATION WITH WFO/S MT HOLLY...UPTON AND BOSTON/ FOR A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS NERN NJ THROUGH LONG ISLAND /INCLUDING NYC/ INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THIS CONFIDENCE IS BASED ON THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF AN OBSERVED WLY 500-MB JET OF 80 KT AT JACKSON KY EARLY THIS EVENING PER THE VAD. STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF THIS JET WILL MOVE INTO NRN DELMARVA BY 06Z AND THEN INTO LONG ISLAND AND SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z. THIS MIDLEVEL JET AND AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ UP TO 50-60 KT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO SRN NEW ENGLAND LATER TONIGHT WILL OCCUR AS THE CURRENT UPPER OH VALLEY SHORTWAVE TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER NY TO SRN NEW ENGLAND BY 12Z. THE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR DISCRETE ROTATING STORMS AND BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR QLCS DEVELOPMENT. 23Z RAP SOUNDINGS FROM THE VICINITY OF NYC AT 07Z INDICATED EFFECTIVE SRH AROUND 250 M2/S2 WITH SIMILAR VALUES INTO SOUTHEAST MA /NEAR NEW BEDFORD/ BY 12Z. THIS FACTOR SUPPORTS THE TORNADO THREAT...WHILE STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL FAVOR THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. 00Z UPTON NY SOUNDING INDICATED SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH PARCELS BEING SURFACE-BASED. STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ INTO THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS TO BE SURFACE BASED...WITH MUCAPE ALREADY AROUND 600 J/KG. FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. Looks like if anything materializes you might be in a good location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 It does look like earlier stuff may muck up and stabilize things before it recovers again. seems like that's often the problem here with these setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Looks like if anything materializes you might be in a good locationI don't want to be in a good location for severe,ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 On the outside looking in. Hopefully this isn't a of things to come in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I don't want to be in a good location for severe,everAgreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I don't want to be in a good location for severe,everI know right? A chase out in the corn fields must be fun, but 2 am at home with the kids tucked in?Thankfully my town can barely hold a thunderstorm together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I'm a bit anxious. Best setup around these parts in quite some time. Only once have I been under a tornado warning that I can recall while here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I don't want to be in a good location for severe,ever This... My house is surrounded by 150' white pines. Don't need any of those falling on the house. Why do some posters (cough cough) seem to want this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 This... My house is surrounded by 150' white pines. Don't need any of those falling on the house. Why do some posters (cough cough) seem to want this? Likely a solid majority are not homeowners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Likely a solid majority are not homeowners.Kevin is probably the only one that wishes an EF2 strikes his home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I know right? A chase out in the corn fields must be fun, but 2 am at home with the kids tucked in? Thankfully my town can barely hold a thunderstorm together. Close call though, Mansfield had their first tornado in ages last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Likely a solid majority are not homeowners.I'm a homeowner and would love to have it...although if it were to happen I would probably regret it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I want to see a tornado but not if the cost is destroying property or taking lives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 HRRR looks rather fun for RI and SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I'm a homeowner and would love to have it...although if it were to happen I would probably regret ityou would quickly find out how much home insurance sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 HRRR looks rather fun for RI and SE MA.it's been changing every hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 8, 2014 Author Share Posted October 8, 2014 it's been changing every hr. I just really looked at it, but I see that too. I would expect that given how the setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 HRRR looks rather fun for RI and SE MA. A few runs now have showed some robust updrafts swinging through the area. Could be a couple of rounds of storms too. As of 10, dews are generally 60-63F across SE MA and most of RI. Even seeing a due E wind at WST and SE at GON. I imagine if we're going to have a legit severe potential SE of I-95 in New England, it almost has to happen in late summer/early fall to actually thrive off of a marine influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 A few runs now have showed some robust updrafts swinging through the area. Could be a couple of rounds of storms too. As of 10, dews are generally 60-63F across SE MA and most of RI. Even seeing a due E wind at WST and SE at GON. I imagine if we're going to have a legit severe potential SE of I-95 in New England, it almost has to happen in late summer/early fall to actually thrive off of a marine influence. my recollection of the few severe events are of overnight early AM timeframes. Worst always came in off the ocean not land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I'd like a storm. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Yeah, just making sure all the windows are closed and stuff is secure outside. Hopefully we can get some nice storms without a tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 I don't want to be in a good location for severe,ever Yup, I was ground zero once (5/27/10) and it was all I need in this lifetime. The only time I ever felt the wind coming straight down out of the sky. Nighttime storm too, scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 first batch of rain almost here. Guessing that puts a damper on the show later-pun intended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Yeah, just making sure all the windows are closed and stuff is secure outside. Hopefully we can get some nice storms without a tornado lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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