Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Once TornadoTony makes a post in our thread..we'll know it's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Where is James Nichols to say the gulf stream will help us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Just told folks at work to keep the weather radios on tonight, they thought I was crazy, nobody really knows.. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Just told folks at work to keep the weather radios on tonight, they thought I was crazy, nobody really knows.. Sent from my iPhone and when nothing happens for most, they will know you're crazy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Random downpour here on campus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Here's all the morning October tornadoes in and near New England since 1950. That F2 in New York is listed as midnight on October 1 but I included it anyway. History is against it but history isn't everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I'm expecting a 30 knot gust and a few rumbles...someone like Rehoboth would probably get the spinner...or Boxfield in Essex county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I'm expecting a 30 knot gust and a few rumbles...someone like Rehoboth would probably get the spinner...or Boxfield in Essex county. Rehoboth came to mind for me as well. Lots of opportunity there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Here's all the morning October tornadoes in and near New England since 1950. That F2 in New York is listed as midnight on October 1 but I included it anyway. History is against it but history isn't everything. newenglandtor.png That's off. There was an outbreak in NJ in 1990. Also a waterspout in RI. Edit, That did not include NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 That's off. There was an outbreak in NJ in 1990. Also a waterspout in RI. Edit, That did not include NJ. Yeah I left NJ out of the search. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 There isn't anywhere from Nj up to SNH that is more favorable than someplace else. With this extremely rare and volatile setup..everyone has equal chances of some wild weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Rehoboth came to mind for me as well. Lots of opportunity there Had a Tornado in 1671... rated EF0 because the construction quality was crap and the countryside predominantly rural. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SPC removed the slight and said confidence diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SPC removed the slight and said confidence diminishing. Yeah. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SPC removed the slight and said confidence diminishing. Wow...really? Based on the comments here I would have figured it looked better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Probably a good sign for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 and when nothing happens for most, they will know you're crazy.... lol, Think the worst hope for the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The top H5 analog @ 36 hrs on CIPS is 10-13-92. Anyone know if there was severe that day? maybe it's not useful because the event will have past by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SPC removed the slight and said confidence diminishing. What model are they basing that on? Maybe the thought process is that coverage will be too widespread for discrete cells. That I could definitly see. As far as tornados are concerned, some of the most severe storms have occured in the NYC area during the morning hours. I feel as if most of the NYC area is out of the game but I would think anyone from Hartford north and east is in a prime area for a nastly quall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 There isn't anywhere from Nj up to SNH that is more favorable than someplace else. With this extremely rare and volatile setup..everyone has equal chances of some wild weather Where low level convergence and shear is greatest, that is where the threat would be highest...you want to be near a boundary of sorts. This is often why near the coastline is favorable in the low topped spinner setups. Also maybe some topgraphical-induced boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 RGEM looked meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Probably a good sign for us. lol It's odd... I definitely wouldn't have expected that. Would love to know their reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 People should realize this isn't supposed to be a thread about multiple EF3s dancing around SNE. It's both squall line and possible TORs. I feel like people are thinking a 4/11 outbreak in the cards...but it doesn't have to mean it will happen like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Wow...really? Based on the comments here I would have figured it looked better. Not a bad thing really, We have had more severe when they have us in "see text" then numerous fails in slight risk situations, Not that i expect very much here anyways, New England is not one of there strong suits being out in norman in the midwest..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 People should realize this isn't supposed to be a thread about multiple EF3s dancing around SNE. It's both squall line and possible TORs. I feel like people are thinking a 4/11 outbreak in the cards...but it doesn't have to mean it will happen like that.Yeah most of this is going be from widespread wind damage from wind gusts, but embedded in the line there could potentially be a few weak- borderline moderate spinners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Probably a good sign for us. That's a head scratcher for me. Maybe you could argue the 12z SPC WRF is less robust (though still impressive for SNE). But all other guidance has been ticking upwards in threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Yeah most of this is going be from widespread wind damage from wind gusts, but embedded in the line there could potentially be a few weak- borderline moderate spinners Well again...Gotta keep things in check and not expect a derecho either for the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 That's a head scratcher for me. Maybe you could argue the 12z SPC WRF is less robust (though still impressive for SNE). But all other guidance has been ticking upwards in threat. The only model that sort of backed down was the NAM, but it still was impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Yeah most of this is going be from widespread wind damage from wind gusts, but embedded in the line there could potentially be a few weak- borderline moderate spinners Actually I might argue that if something spins up it probably won't be weak. Kind of like low end EF2 or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 and when nothing happens for most, they will know you're crazy.... . Well I did not tell them they would get something, but the fact that someone might get something is good enough for something.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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