SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Models between 09-12z really push the theta-e axis towards FIT. Some of the hi-res (ARW, NMM, local WRF) really surge things into southern NH. What does this mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Models between 09-12z really push the theta-e axis towards FIT. Some of the hi-res (ARW, NMM, local WRF) really surge things into southern NH. That makes sense to me and I don't buy the models hugging the south coast. Good backing in the interior too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I always wondered what I would do if I was under a TOR warning and the strongest rotation was literally right over me or near me...I'd be afraid to go into the basement b/c there are so many spiders and webs. Plus if the foundation crumples its tons of brick falling on me. Best to take your chances on the roof instead of the basement. That's what they always tell you in TOR situations. Go high, not low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Here are the ARW and NMM representations of surface theta-e (ARW then NMM) I would say the NMM look like a more robust theta-e axis, but both are pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 What does this mean? This is a proxy for the unstable air mass where strong to severe storms is the most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The NAMs simulated radar argues for a couple rounds of storms tomorrow. The first around 9z then the second shortly after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Here are the ARW and NMM representations of surface theta-e (ARW then NMM) ARW.jpg NMM.jpg I would say the NMM look like a more robust theta-e axis, but both are pretty impressive. I like where I am...right on the axis of higher theta-e air...always a good spot to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 This is a proxy for the unstable air mass where strong to severe storms is the most likely. Cool thanks for the explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I like where I am...right on the axis of higher theta-e air...always a good spot to be What is the time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Interesting to note how the shear increases during the morning too. The upper jet moves north over the area around 12z, not that shear/helicity is anything to scoff at prior to 12z. After that hour though, it increases pretty dramatically, which is why it could get pretty volatile on the eastern coastal plain if that instability is realized. I think Ryan mentioned it a ways back too, 0-1 km shear vectors are in excess of 30 knots (close to 50 in some cases in NH) so significant spin ups are a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Dews on the rise up here, too...no shot at anything interesting but feeling more muggy. MVL up to 56F and MPV up to 58F td's...BDL and IJD both at 55F, but they must be much better mixed drying the low levels some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Just looked up ACCAS. Eye in the sky. I'm with Scott, kinda doubtful its around yet. Feel like I only see that in deep deep summer, often with eml days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 I'm with Scott, kinda doubtful its around yet. Feel like I only see that in deep deep summer, often with eml days It could be...I never peaked out the window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Headed our way. Could be worse air masses. Those lapse rates are definitely rooted lower in the atmosphere than traditional methods would indicate (i.e. 700-500 mb). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 It could be...I never peaked out the window. This event if a future conference topic if it delivers. Significant severe setup with southerly winds for eastern portions. This is a first for me. We would usually be banging our heads on the keyboard with this wind direction. I'm glued to the potential. This favors almost all of Eastern Mass too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Headed our way. Could be worse air masses. BNA.gif ILN.gif Those lapse rates are definitely rooted lower in the atmosphere than traditional methods would indicate (i.e. 700-500 mb). Is lower better as far as the position of the lapse rates are concerned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 There's some sort of N-S boundary just east of Worcester right now that a couple light showers are firing on. Appears that dews east of the boundary are in the upper 50s, while dews west of the boundary are roughly 55. Remind me what sites those soundings are from again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 This event if a future conference topic if it delivers. Significant severe setup with southerly winds for eastern portions. This is a first for me. We would usually be banging our heads on the keyboard with this wind direction. I'm glued to the potential. This favors almost all of Eastern Mass too. Don't get too excited yet. I want to see the near term mesos still hint at this. I can't see a model fail this close, but it only takes a small change in parameters to screw things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The gusty winds up to 50mph on euro region wide tomorrow is impressive by itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Is lower better as far as the position of the lapse rates are concerned? Both are pretty good, just showing that the instability is rooted lower in the atmosphere than for a typical warm season severe weather event. Which is probably to be expected this time of year. There's some sort of N-S boundary just east of Worcester right now that a couple light showers are firing on. Appears that dews east of the boundary are in the upper 50s, while dews west of the boundary are roughly 55. Remind me what sites those soundings are from again? Those are from SPC's website. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The gusty winds up to 50mph on euro region wide tomorrow is impressive by itself You won't see winds that strong without convection bringing it down. It does show though..the amount of wind energy aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 You won't see winds that strong without convection bringing it down. It does show though..the amount of wind energy aloft Up to 50mph.. even lowest elevations are at least over 30mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Don't get too excited yet. I want to see the near term mesos still hint at this. I can't see a model fail this close, but it only takes a small change in parameters to screw things up. So far trends are all in the right direction (for those that like these sorts of events). SREF has been a slow and steady increase in parameters since 21z on the 5th if you view the Dprog/Dt. SPC WRF 12z run is the next thing I'm interested in seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 So far trends are all in the right direction (for those that like these sorts of events). SREF has been a slow and steady increase in parameters since 21z on the 5th if you view the Dprog/Dt. SPC WRF 12z run is the next thing I'm interested in seeing. GFS too, although it slowed a bit from 06z, but looks a bit better. I agree that so far things are coming together. I'd like to see the 12Z mesos (SPC WRF, NMM, ARW etc) as well as the RAP continue to hit it. I mean at this stage, can't really ignore things. Looks like your WFO is going to have fun as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 GFS too, although it slowed a bit from 06z, but looks a bit better. I agree that so far things are coming together. I'd like to see the 12Z mesos (SPC WRF, NMM, ARW etc) as well as the RAP continue to hit it. I mean at this stage, can't really ignore things. Looks like your WFO is going to have fun as well. Low topped squall line looks most likely, but like I've been saying a brief tornado can't be ruled out. It really isn't often we're staffing up in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 So far trends are all in the right direction (for those that like these sorts of events). SREF has been a slow and steady increase in parameters since 21z on the 5th if you view the Dprog/Dt. SPC WRF 12z run is the next thing I'm interested in seeing. What time does that typically roll in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 What time does that typically roll in? A little after 1:15 IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Oops, I was wrong. It's out here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Oops, I was wrong. It's out here: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ I am only seeing the 00 hr plot and the 24 hr plot as being from todays 12z run. Kind of weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 That run is tasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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