CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 This is pretty dam good. The NAM is weenie fodder. The numbers are eye opening. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 This is pretty dam good. SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f030.gif The NAM is weenie fodder. The numbers are eye opening. Discuss. is that for Weds AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 is that for Weds AM? Yep. Looked at BUFKIT too. Very impressive to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 SPC WRF has what looks like discrete cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 SPC WRF has what looks like discrete cells. Just getting caught up this morning and... Jesus. What a bizarre setup. To get this kind of setup overnight is just so odd. With SSTs warm still october can give you weird things like this I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Just getting caught up this morning and... Jesus. What a bizarre setup. To get this kind of setup overnight is just so odd. With SSTs warm still october can give you weird things like this I guess. Yeah. Now I'm like...what could mess this up. I guess having it be strongly forced and go linear. At that point, might have your QLCS spin-up I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Man..for Scooter to start a severe wx thread..in October no less..means this is a very real threat and folks had damn well better pay attn..despite what Ginx says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Man..for Scooter to start a severe wx thread..in October no less..means this is a very real threat and folks had damn well better pay attn..despite what Ginx says Hey I just thought the setup was interesting. It could line out and we have shwrs/tstms too. But, the models are throwing out impressive numbers. Everything needs to be timed right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Hey I just thought the setup was interesting. It could line out and we have shwrs/tstms too. But, the models are throwing out impressive numbers. Everything needs to be timed right. What is the timeframe ..something like 4:00am in Ct to maybe 8:00am out by you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 This is about as uneasy of a situation I can think of with regards to convection in southern New England. Climo and timing of day just are not favorable at all. I mean we have had severe weather and tornadoes occur at night before and in October before but never really at night during the month of October. With this said, the ingredients are there and everything is in place for the possibility of severe weather including tornadoes, it's just a matter of whether or not everything is realized. Too see mesomodels spitting out discrete is something I think that "elevates" the awareness of this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 What is the timeframe ..something like 4:00am in Ct to maybe 8:00am out by you? Something like that. Would like to see the GFS more impressive, but the SREFs which have done well in the past, are hitting it pretty hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Something like that. Would like to see the GFS more impressive, but the SREFs which have done well in the past, are hitting it pretty hard. I don't know how accurate of a statement this is as it's but what I've noticed with the GFS is (with regards to New England) it never seems to handle nocturnal convection setups really well, especially with regards to instability. The GFS seems to always want to stabilize the atmosphere much, much faster than other models. Not saying this so we throw out the GFS or anything...just an observation I've noticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 The euro cut back on instability here in ct and points wrst but is still bullish in e mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Just looked at 6z NAM sounding for IJD...all during the overnight into tomorrow morning it has over 500-550 J/KG of 0-6km Cape and just over 150 J/KG of 0-3km Cape with shear ~30 m/s...those values are pretty impressive actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 The euro cut back on instability here in ct and points wrst but is still bullish in e mass. The mesos have pretty good updraft helicity in CT and into RI and adjacent MA FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Noticed some ACCAS on my way into work this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Well we'll see how today goes. We know the caveats so it's important to remember that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Noticed some ACCAS on my way into work this morning. Translate please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I noticed ACCAS on the morning of 6/1/11. Just saying...must be some mid-level instability present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 Not sure if that was ACCAS. Mid levels are meh right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 RGEM looks dam good too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Just looked at GON...even more impressive. surface cape up around 1200 J/KG with 0-6km Cape as high as 700 J/KG and 0-3km cape as high as 200 J/KG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Something like that. Would like to see the GFS more impressive, but the SREFs which have done well in the past, are hitting it pretty hard. I remember Ryan said the only useful thing the sREF's can be good for is severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Just looked up ACCAS. Eye in the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 I remember Ryan said the only useful thing the sREF's can be good for is severe. RPM has more of a line coming through. Other mesos have more of a cellular look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 I wonder where Quincy will be chasing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 One big key feature to watch is the 500mb winds as it rounds the base of the trough. The NAM is much less bullish with regards to the MLJ streak at 500mb and begins to weaken the winds as the streak rounds the base of the trough indicating a system which may be undergoing some weakening. The GFS, on the other hand, is much stronger with the winds and you actually what appears to be a "duo jet streak"...I think there is a word for that but I can't remember it. if that were to verify that could play a huge role and be something favorable for enhanced development...I believe that would really increase upward motion. Also, the timing of the nose of that feature could really help out as well. It also looks as if the nose of the LLJ may coincide with the timing of the nose of the MLJ as well...something else to watch out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 RPM has more of a line coming through. Other mesos have more of a cellular look. That's going to be a huge question too...are we looking at more discrete type activity or are we going to be dealing with more linear action with embedded mesos possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Author Share Posted October 7, 2014 That's going to be a huge question too...are we looking at more discrete type activity or are we going to be dealing with more linear action with embedded mesos possible? Well with the shear, you can always get spin ups. I don't expect to see discrete stuff that much, but could be some. This isn't really something that would have cells that discrete IMO. It's a strong s/w moving through so it wouldn't surprise me to have a line with a few cells ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Wiz - I'm not so sure the specifics about the orientation of the h5 jet streak matters all that much. Very strong synoptic forcing, enough instability, and very strong 0-1 and 0-3km shear are more important. The biggest discrimator between tornadic and non-tornadic tends to be that low level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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