Zeus Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 faulty logic...but logic nonetheless... By all means, explain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The ensembles had precip up here where the OP was dry so there has to be a few members that were north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Well the differences seemed to stem from the PV. The euro op seemed to send a lobe of vorticity SE and a faster srn S/W. The ensembles was a little slower with the S/W and not really shoving that vorticity SE like the op. FWIW anyways. Those comments earlier after I mentioned the ensembles and now worrying about mixed precip to the pike seem a little too knee jerk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Is it that same lobe that was so prominent on the GFS that is wrestling this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 00z and 12z a couple days ago jackpotted us up here....then it was CNE, then SNE, now a shade south. If it's not a trend, I'm not sure what is. It is pretty much game over here on this one. I have accepted that this isn't our year and it will be forgettable in the grand scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Is it that same lobe that was so prominent on the GFS that is wrestling this thing? The euro actually sends the lobe south and flattern the flow over us more than the GFS. Ironically, the euro has a good looking srn vort. The GFS op looked a little more like the EC ensemble. This 12z euro op is basically a bit faster with the PV lobe moving SE and slower with the srn vort which results in a disconnect and causes more of a suppressed solution...compared to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 By this time tomorrow the talk is going to center around how far north the heavy snow gets and how far north the sleet gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 By this time tomorrow the talk is going to center around how far north the heavy snow gets and how far north the sleet gets That wouldn't shock me, but that is far from certain at this point. The multi-model spread is very high right now. That bothers me quite a bit in terms of any type of confidence in this system. The Euro has gone south two runs in a row including an uncharacteristic large move, but its ensembles haven't been confident. Other models are making large jumps as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That wouldn't shock me, but that is far from certain at this point. The multi-model spread is very high right now. That bothers me quite a bit in terms of any type of confidence in this system. The Euro has gone south two runs in a row including an uncharacteristic large move, but its ensembles haven't been confident. Other models are making large jumps as well. Yeah I think people really need to understand not to set up jackpot areas and conversely screw zones. 4+ days out.... Things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 lol at the name of this impending storm, and lol at the hype machine 4 days out. Who ever posted this wanted to focus on the hype so much that half of the map is covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That wouldn't shock me, but that is far from certain at this point. The multi-model spread is very high right now. That bothers me quite a bit in terms of any type of confidence in this system. The Euro has gone south two runs in a row including an uncharacteristic large move, but its ensembles haven't been confident. Other models are making large jumps as well. Maybe this is the one time a s stream system with plenty of gulf juice ends up shunted south of NYC with snow and DC jackpotting..but we've just seen so many times in the past when the models have gone nuts with a PV and confluence and as you get to about 48 hours in..they start to go back the other way. Plus as you pointed out earlier..it' will be March and that also doesn't typically mean supression..I feel by the time this shakes out it snows up to GYX area..and somewhere into Ct sees sleet mix in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Maybe this is the one time a s stream system with plenty of gulf juice ends up shunted south of NYC with snow and DC jackpotting..but we've just seen so many times in the past when the models have gone nuts with a PV and confluence and as you get to about 48 hours in..they start to go back the other way. Plus as you pointed out earlier..it' will be March and that also doesn't typically mean supression..I feel by the time this shakes out it snows up to GYX area..and somewhere into Ct sees sleet mix in What did you do with Kevin? You have had some quality post the last couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Maybe this is the one time a s stream system with plenty of gulf juice ends up shunted south of NYC with snow and DC jackpotting..but we've just seen so many times in the past when the models have gone nuts with a PV and confluence and as you get to about 48 hours in..they start to go back the other way. Plus as you pointed out earlier..it' will be March and that also doesn't typically mean supression..I feel by the time this shakes out it snows up to GYX area..and somewhere into Ct sees sleet mix in I think your area to scooter will be in the sweet swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS looks decent..though still not far enough north yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 GFS holding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Still a 15 degree sandstorm on the GFS for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Still a 15 degree sandstorm on the GFS for SNE. Will you wear a turka north of the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Today's guidance was unanimously more suppressed vs 0Z. Some refuse to acknowledge this. Not saying it's correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 The other thing to think about..with a model like the GFS that can't handle southern stream systems..to have it this far north already is huge..normally if it was suppression time you'd see it down around OBX. Another great sign for the worriers in the area it's coming north and I'd bet the GEFS are north of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Today's guidance was unanimously more suppressed vs 0Z. Some refuse to acknowledge this. Not saying it's correct. For now it gets the same attention as if it came in amped up. It's a 4 day solution. I think there is only one not admitting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think it was a pretty noticeable improvement, at least in terms of QPF. Maybe it's the end of the southward corrections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 As I was saying a couple days ago, 75% of the time things things trend worse (south) this winter and rarely come back the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 For now it gets the same attention as if it came in amped up. It's a 4 day solution. I think there is only one not admitting it. Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think it was a pretty noticeable improvement, at least in terms of QPF. Maybe it's the end of the southward corrections. Yup.. at our lattitude, 10" or more is a distinct possibility on the 18z gfs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 As I was saying a couple days ago, 75% of the time things things trend worse (south) this winter and rarely come back the other wayNo whining allowed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 i like the name but mighty big shoes to fill lol....euro has me concerned...didnt gfs do well with the 2/3 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 All guidance other than our crazy uncle went south including the euro ens vs 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Maybe this is the one time a s stream system with plenty of gulf juice ends up shunted south of NYC with snow and DC jackpotting..but we've just seen so many times in the past when the models have gone nuts with a PV and confluence and as you get to about 48 hours in..they start to go back the other way. Plus as you pointed out earlier..it' will be March and that also doesn't typically mean supression..I feel by the time this shakes out it snows up to GYX area..and somewhere into Ct sees sleet mix in You always bring hope to the sick and faint of heart.You're wrong, but reguardless... Sent from my VS980 4G using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 This storm can f off if it comes through like currently modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 By this time tomorrow the talk is going to center around how far north the heavy snow gets and how far north the sleet gets Isn't that what we are talking about all day today? That's sort of what we've been discussing the past 3 days, how far north the best snow gets, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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