CoastalWx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I don't think you have ever perceived a run as undeseriable. Crushed, Leon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Or it could continue trending south... No it couldn't. It hasn't been trending south. Anyone that follows wx knows that southern stream events always come north the final 36 hours and that the PV is never as strong as moidelled. In essence what you'll see is the precip/qpf shield well north of where it's modeled today..there's going to be fronto bands..the whole nine. I actually loved this run for the stated reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Sign me up. Still plenty of time though, and the EURO making such drastic changes shows that it's far from locked in at the moment. That's actually about the biggest jump I've seen all winter on a Euro run inside of 5 days. It could either mean its off its rocker or that its going to trend even more. High is impressive to the north, but southern stream systems in March don't usually like suppression. A battle of forces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I don't think you have ever perceived a run as undeseriable. Hey .5 and high ratios and snow, why not, I can see why you would not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Gonna find my low dews, get suppressed real tight Gonna get me some sublimation delight When the Euro gives VT cirrus then you know it's right Powderfreak will get another clear, cold, dark night Snow grains in flight Sublimation delight Yeahhhhhh sublimation delight Beautiful No matter where this tracks, look at those progged Td's...who ever is on the northern side of this could see a nice virga storm if northerly flow in the boundary layer drills arctic dry air under the WAA aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Crushed, Leon. CIPPS numbers 1,3,8,15 from 94, epicosity, huge winter is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Hey .5 and high ratios and snow, why not, I can see why you would not. I don't care. I won't cry over a miserable Monday AM commute devoid of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 No it couldn't. It hasn't been trending south. Anyone that follows wx knows that southern stream events always come north the final 36 hours and that the PV is never as strong as moidelled. In essence what you'll see is the precip/qpf shield well north of where it's modeled today..there's going to be fronto bands..the whole nine. I actually loved this run for the stated reasons. Yes it did go S. Call it a trend, call it what you will. 12z yesterday jackpotted CNE, 00z last night jackpotted around ORH, 12z today jackpotted LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Beautiful No matter where this tracks, look at those progged Td's...who ever is on the northern side of this could see a nice virga storm if northerly flow in the boundary layer drills arctic dry air under the WAA aloft. I was just thinking that I could envision a 1/21 redux of sorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I feel pretty good about this one for us....it's right where we want it. All those modeled Philly storms this winter have been correcting 200-300 miles north at the last minute, so we are golden And we were questioned over our thoughts a couple days back, Not our first rodeo............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I don't care. I won't cry over a miserable Monday AM commute devoid of snow. You already said you were all set with snow so thats cool, enjoy the exhaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Yes it did go S. Call it a trend, call it what you will. 12z yesterday jackpotted CNE, 00z last night jackpotted around ORH, 12z today jackpotted LI. 00z and 12z a couple days ago jackpotted us up here....then it was CNE, then SNE, now a shade south. If it's not a trend, I'm not sure what is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 so you guys turn into dicks when the Euro takes your snow away what else is new,. 30 miles north and I see a foot 30 miles north and you see 5 inches, hope this locks in. So, you get defensive when we bust balls a bit....what else is new. Jesus..hope you get buried. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 00z and 12z a couple days ago jackpotted us up here....then it was CNE, then SNE, now a shade south. If it's not a trend, I'm not sure what is. Beer goggles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 You already said you were all set with snow so thats cool, enjoy the exhaust. Whatever happens, happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I was just thinking that I could envision a 1/21 redux of sorts. It just maybe more frustrating on the northern side if that dry air is there, especially lower elevations. Sort of like radar looks good but you are seeing really tiny, half-sublimated flakes blowing around and taking their sweet time accumulating. The usual arctic cold snow with drier low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 So, you get defensive when we bust balls a bit....what else is new. Jesus..hope you get buried. Good luck. Back at you, going to hand it out its coming back at you faster than you threw it, its all good bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 And we were questioned over our thoughts a couple days back, Not our first rodeo............... Every system is different. 9 times out of 10 the modeled ridic arctic cold shots at d5+ are overdone and the southern streamers verify more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 If this was a northern stream disturbance id be worried...with that said, past event got looked good in long range then got crushed in mid range. But PV cant possibly crush this me thinks to the point where its congrats Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think the bigger worry is still Ptype issues south of pike than getting missed. PV will not end up there or that strong. Always over modeled . Think about all the times we've seen this over the years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Whatever happens, happens. my thoughts exactly Ray, NBD either way. Looking forward to hearing Scooters reasoning NNE gets hit hard though. I am sure those guys would love to hear it. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Back at you, going to hand it out its coming back at you faster than you threw it, its all good bro Usually ball busting entails a bit more originiality, and less venom, then simply calling someone a dick. To each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think the bigger worry is still Ptype issues south of pike than getting missed. PV will not end up there or that strong. Always over modeled . Think about all the times we've seen this over the years Not anymore I don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I think the bigger worry is still Ptype issues south of pike than getting missed. PV will not end up there or that strong. Always over modeled . Think about all the times we've seen this over the years My honest guess is that s of the pike does well, n, naso much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 No it couldn't. It hasn't been trending south. Anyone that follows wx knows that southern stream events always come north the final 36 hours and that the PV is never as strong as moidelled. In essence what you'll see is the precip/qpf shield well north of where it's modeled today..there's going to be fronto bands..the whole nine. I actually loved this run for the stated reasons. Yes it could. Not likely but watch the strength and location of the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm not sure why there is such a penchant for talking in the past tense about these systems when they are still 4 days out. I hope people can try and keep it a bit more scientific in these threat threads. I'm not sure people are quite grasping how much ensemble spread there is...not only within a homogenous ensemble suite, but multi-model ensemble too. Ukie was way amped at 12z...while it was suppressed at 00z. There's some issues going on in dealing with this big offshore southern stream system currently west of California, and the evoluation of the polar vortex split to the north and how those two interact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 That's actually about the biggest jump I've seen all winter on a Euro run inside of 5 days. It could either mean its off its rocker or that its going to trend even more. High is impressive to the north, but southern stream systems in March don't usually like suppression. A battle of forces. Ya a sizable jump to say the least, especially considering it's inside 100 hours. As always, the ensembles will give us a better idea. Regardless of where this ends up, this seems like the type of storm where there could be an extreme north cutoff..something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 In all seriousness now, no more ball busting. The reason these guys preach ENS forecasting at this range, model waffling, as easily could come north 100 miles, nothing is locked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 I'm not sure why there is such a penchant for talking in the past tense about these systems when they are still 4 days out. I hope people can try and keep it a bit more scientific in these threat threads. I'm not sure people are quite grasping how much ensemble spread there is...not only within a homogenous ensemble suite, but multi-model ensemble too. Ukie was way amped at 12z...while it was suppressed at 00z. There's some issues going on in dealing with this big offshore southern stream system currently west of California, and the evoluation of the polar vortex split to the north and how those two interact. Where was the 12z UK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 27, 2014 Share Posted February 27, 2014 Where was the 12z UK? Looks like SLP came off the CNJ coast and S of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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