dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That is a 6hr crushing for NH early Fri morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gfs nails Berks and nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow that's like 15-20 miles maybe between 4-6 and 10-14 on box map for interior southeast ma through into northern Rhode Island. High stakes for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That is a 6hr crushing for NH early Fri morning. Wow looks real nice. Gets a little warm for a while, but I think we make out alright... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't know what to think. 0.5F means 3" or 7" here. I don't like how the models are consistently mild here with temps, but I honestly think they are a hair too warm. At least for my area and BOS. Interestingly the 18z hi-res NAM goes from 37 at BOS at 16Z then down to 32 at 18Z with the most intense precip. Perhaps some dynamics/intensity flip-flop things between rain/snow for a while tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Your 4k NAM looks pretty similar to the Euro. Follow the higher reflectivities. Front end thump pounds ENE and then the brunt of the deformation stays in far E NY and VT. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rloop.html This track, and these upper level features, is not going to favor eastern areas for deformation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1.00" of liquid in 6hr for Jaffrey. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That is a 6hr crushing for NH early Fri morning. That'd be pretty sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's a good thump on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Holy fook at h42 on the gfs. Thats what I call a deform band, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From BOX afternoon discussion: .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST SPREADING DEEP LIFT AND MOISTUREACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THERIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...WHILE LOW AND MID LEVELFRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE OVER MOST OF THE REGION.TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS INITIALLY...BUT WITHABOVE-FREEZING AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING ANDCHANGING THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDDAY OR EARLYAFTERNOON. THE WARMER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST CT ANDPARTS OF CENTRAL MASS...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THIS DUE TO THESNOWCOVER AND ITS COOLING INFLUENCE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WARMTEMPS ALOFT AND COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN APERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERNAREAS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY AS SNOW. WITH STRONG LIFT IN THE SNOWGROWTH ZONE...PERIODS OF INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY JUSTNORTH/WEST OF THE CHANGEOVER LINE.MODELS SIGNAL A WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TAKES PLACE JUST AS THESURFACE LOW PASSES...OVER OR NEAR CAPE COD...AND WINDS SHIFT TONORTH/NORTHWEST DRAWING COLD AIR BACK ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA. THISWILL GENERATE FRONTOGENTIC FORCING AND LIFT AS ANY RAIN OR ICECHANGES BACK TO SNOW. WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AND SOUTHERN NH AREMOST AT RISK FOR HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS.EXPECTED SNOWFALL RANGES FROM 14-18 INCHES IN THE EAST SLOPES OFTHE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER-MONADNOCK HILLS TO 1-2 INCHES ONTHE CAPE AND ISLANDS. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS IN THE BERKSHIRE ZONESTHAT HAVE 18-24 INCHES. WE ARE EXPECTING A SHARP GRADIENT OFSNOW ACCUMULATION JUST INLAND OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ICEACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OFNORTHERN CT AND CENTRAL MASS.THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLED NORTH BY THE STORM WILL MOVE ACROSSEASTERN MASS/RI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT. THE MOSTFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD. BUT LAPSERATES APPROACHING MOIST ADIABATIC ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD ALLOWTHE 50 MPH WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN RAIN. THE GREATEST RISKWILL BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND ACROSS CAPE ANN IN NORTHEASTMASS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I didn't throw any numbers out..I will say i think it will be more than 1-2 inches Then you want it east. 18z gfs went that way a bit but I'd like to see more of a tick. I'm just being honest with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks like a great back end hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow, the 18z GFS gives ORH like 6-8" of snow in 6 hour at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Looks to me like the 18z GFS gives Kevin 3-5 in a matter of 3 hours on the back side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That'd be pretty sick. Time to up your expectations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Wow, the 18z GFS gives ORH like 6-8" of snow in 6 hour at the end.Time to start pondering the 'lash seriously. Intensifying as we draw closer despite euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 From BOX afternoon discussion: .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP THE COAST SPREADING DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET...WHILE LOW AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL BE FAVORABLE OVER MOST OF THE REGION. TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVOR SNOW IN ALL AREAS INITIALLY...BUT WITH ABOVE-FREEZING AIR MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE MORNING AND CHANGING THE SNOW TO RAIN IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE WARMER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST CT AND PARTS OF CENTRAL MASS...BUT LESS CONFIDENCE ON THIS DUE TO THE SNOWCOVER AND ITS COOLING INFLUENCE NEAR THE SURFACE. THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND COOLER TEMPS NEAR THE SURFACE MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY AS SNOW. WITH STRONG LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE...PERIODS OF INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY JUST NORTH/WEST OF THE CHANGEOVER LINE. MODELS SIGNAL A WELL DEFINED COMMA HEAD MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS TAKES PLACE JUST AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES...OVER OR NEAR CAPE COD...AND WINDS SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST DRAWING COLD AIR BACK ACROSS ALL OF OUR AREA. THIS WILL GENERATE FRONTOGENTIC FORCING AND LIFT AS ANY RAIN OR ICE CHANGES BACK TO SNOW. WESTERN AND CENTRAL MASS AND SOUTHERN NH ARE MOST AT RISK FOR HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS. EXPECTED SNOWFALL RANGES FROM 14-18 INCHES IN THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES AND THE WORCESTER-MONADNOCK HILLS TO 1-2 INCHES ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. COULD BE A FEW SPOTS IN THE BERKSHIRE ZONES THAT HAVE 18-24 INCHES. WE ARE EXPECTING A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOW ACCUMULATION JUST INLAND OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN CT AND CENTRAL MASS. THE LOW LEVEL JET PULLED NORTH BY THE STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MASS/RI THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT. THE MOST FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF CAPE COD. BUT LAPSE RATES APPROACHING MOIST ADIABATIC ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE 50 MPH WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN RAIN. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...AND ACROSS CAPE ANN IN NORTHEAST MASS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. Pretty much mirrors my zone layout from a little while ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Gfs nails Berks and nh ORH to CCT gets smoked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You may get more than you think. Maybe 6 before taint? Heckuva front ender coming. We've done better than modeled for temps on most events this season, but my confidence isn't very high for this one. Would be ecstatic with 4-6" but counting more on 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 .5-.75 of snow before the flip in semass per gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That destroys SW NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ORH to CCT gets smoked That's 12-18 there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Too bad I'll be asleep during the height of the snowfall. Hopefully awakening to unbelievably large mounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 ORH to CCT gets smoked Well gotta get warmth out first. Second, this run shifted east which is what you want. We were describing the 12z runs and what they had verbatim. Still would like to have another shift for you guys, bit this crushes nrn ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's 12-18 there Some of that is wasted on warmth but about maybe 10-12" for you on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well gotta get warmth out first. Second, this run shifted east which is what you want. We were describing the 12z runs and what they had verbatim. Still would like to have another shift for you guys, bit this crushes nrn ORH. Jaffrey for the win on this bad boy. Let's nudge it a little west shall we..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 )))" data-cid="2778431" data-time="1392241848">We've done better than modeled for temps on most events this season, but my confidence isn't very high for this one. Would be ecstatic with 4-6" but counting more on 2-4". Until today I would not have disagreed but now I tell you.."prepare for ecstasy" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Interesting that BOX mentions the icing possibilities in areas that warm aloft due to the snow cover cooling at the surface. There does seem to be some significant precip depicted on the GFS as the backend is cooling but not below freezing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 .5-.75 of snow before the flip in semass per gfs Not bad 5-8. How's the back end look down here. An inch or so maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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