SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 To SnowNH, your post is gone, but like Will and Scott were saying if the ml lows (especially 700mb) are over or west of us like the Euro it'll be a relative meh-fest after the initial omega thump. If the 0z Euro caves then I'll buy it but otherwise I'm kinda on the fence.They have also said the models are likely too warm. Especially north of orh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is going to be a nail biter up here. Big risk but big reward if it works out. We aren't really going to get into the first push of snow, so that CCB cannot escape east otherwise it's big bust time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Harvey has deflated me......that whooshing sound you hear... But that said, this is a very important storm to learn from. The only way you see 1-3" is if the front end stuff completely whiffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can you say exactly what he's thinking and where? I swear by the guy. I just saw him too...pull the shades. But like I said it's all probably moot in a few hours there's so much model motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This is going to be a nail biter up here. Big risk but big reward if it works out. We aren't really going to get into the first push of snow, so that CCB cannot escape east otherwise it's big bust time. Dude, you are getting absolutely buried. I cannot believe you still doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Here is an illustration of our points..myself and Will. This is the GFS notice the lift near and NW of 700mb low. There is also lift to the east as the mid levels close off, increased and inflow and colder air aloft moves in. You want this H7 low to deepen and pass SE of your locale. The GFS is mighty close with this. At the same time there is some warmth, especially further east near the low center. A futher east track would allow incredible lift to coo the column and wipe out any existing wamrth. This actually happens near ORH and SW NH and near HFD for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Two things 1). Odd storm as I said before 2) SnowNH posted???!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just saw him too...pull the shades. But like I said it's all probably moot in a few hours there's so much model motion. Yeah I can imagine some 11pm forecasts shifting quite a bit depending on what early returns are on the 00z suite. The 12z Euro was pretty cold actually so if the 00z NAM/GFS/RGEM/Ukie come in colder right before those 11pm newscasts, I can imagine some upped totals further southeast. Not to mention any shift in the CCB backlash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Two things 1). Odd storm as I said before 2) SnowNH posted???!!?? No. He meant me. I'm not snownh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Dude, you are getting absolutely buried. I cannot believe you still doubt that. So are you guys, but a lot of you are being cautious. You all get slammed on the front end. Absolutely smoked. If the CCB ends up in the ORH hills and not ALB, then we don't get slammed. We don't have the front end thump you guys have. It's not about believing one or the other, it's just musing that this system has a lot of tricks and isn't a slam dunk for anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 BOS sucks to forecast...east wind is definitely going to create havoc. Part of me thinks to lean conservative too...but we'll see what 00z runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Someone's going to get "December 92'ed". Lived up on Winter Hill in Worcester for that one. I have a feeling someone gets absolutely plastered with 2' while towns 20 miles away suffer with light snow/sleet/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 man there's a ton of strong jet dynamics up there in SW canada. This could be a crazy 84 hours of weather incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So are you guys, but a lot of you are being cautious. You all get slammed on the front end. Absolutely smoked. If the CCB ends up in the ORH hills and not ALB, then we don't get slammed. We don't have the front end thump you guys have. It's not about believing one or the other, it's just musing that this system has a lot of tricks and isn't a slam dunk for anyone. Read what Dendrite said in regards to omega and the lift and the fact you will be puking dendrites. You will be cold too. We have to deal with the warmth. Big diff. This is a great NNE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can you say exactly what he's thinking and where? I swear by the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can you say exactly what he's thinking and where? I swear by the guy. Thanks, I didn't have the phone or cam ready. Scott, I think PB's 3-5" could be considered conservative imho for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Some of the CT outlets are going to have to up their maps tonight. I don't see how Lenny only has 1-3 in Bos. That just seems illogical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can you say exactly what he's thinking and where? I swear by the guy. Thank you. Unfortunately I leave an hour's drive or more from any place on that map...LOL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Its freaking cold guys and o look there is OES showing up already in LIS sound, bring them up up up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 BOS sucks to forecast...east wind is definitely going to create havoc. Part of me thinks to lean conservative too...but we'll see what 00z runs do. Actually ... the wind is only 08 for the first six hours, then goes to 03 ...backing then NW in time 18000829071 -0819 231012 34009791 24052999569 16314 120829 42019999 30072988369 -0701 960331 50020304 36020989561 05901 870322 48010501 42030988824 -1211 833024 36009596 48006764208 00007 922725 31009895 if it's any help ... It's been pretty consistent in the NAM's FRH grid... Course, this doesn't atone for the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Actually ... the wind is only 08 for the first six hours, then goes to 03 ...backing then NW in time 18000829071 -0819 231012 34009791 24052999569 16314 120829 42019999 30072988369 -0701 960331 50020304 36020989561 05901 870322 48010501 42030988824 -1211 833024 36009596 48006764208 00007 922725 31009895 if it's any help ... It's been pretty consistent in the NAM's FRH grid... Course, this doesn't atone for the other models. Right, the initial east pulse mucks things up a bit, but the idea is that you want the thump to come in as the happens and then backs NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Yeah I can imagine some 11pm forecasts shifting quite a bit depending on what early returns are on the 00z suite. The 12z Euro was pretty cold actually so if the 00z NAM/GFS/RGEM/Ukie come in colder right before those 11pm newscasts, I can imagine some upped totals further southeast. Not to mention any shift in the CCB backlash. One of the more brutal forecasts I can recall for Boston to PVD. If you go really low you're either a hero or zero in 36 hours, if you go really high the same. If you're in the middle nobody will remember how you did anyway. I doubt Boston is 1-3, it's an all or nothing thing though. Horrible for all of you to pull the trigger. A 2" forecast could turn into 12" without much of a change, and a 12" forecast likewise could yield 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Jerry, where's your handy tandy mos data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 45m Bit of a forecast conundrum for Thu Night. Experience says commahead / "backlash" should stay N and W of much of SNE. Models say "lookout!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 OK so My consistent holding of 8-12 as payed off as my Point and Click is now 8-13 Total. NOW - Have you guys EVER seen EITHER of these - 1. The Absolute Rainbow of the NWS BOX 8" chances over RI. 10 miles either way I go form 3 to 12 inches. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/index.php 2. The WEIRD WSW vs. WWAdvisory in Rhode Island for NWS BOX! To See All of Southern RI in the WSW but Not the region of PVD shows what..... too much cutting of trees and concrete (Hate that)? Usually that line would continue down of course. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Jerry, where's your handy tandy mos data? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RPM is extremely warm in the boundary layer. Starts inside of 128 as rain and keeps it rain. Absolute monster thump particularly east slope of Litchfield Hills and Berkshires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 RPM is extremely warm in the boundary layer. Starts inside of 128 as rain and keeps it rain. Absolute monster thump particularly east slope of Litchfield Hills and Berkshires. 6-10" here Ryan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 No. He meant me. I'm not snownh Lol yeah I guess it was just out of habit. Seriously though we are close to getting smoked on the backside...hopefully the 0z runs all go in one direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Read what Dendrite said in regards to omega and the lift and the fact you will be puking dendrites. You will be cold too. We have to deal with the warmth. Big diff. This is a great NNE storm.Well the 18Z GFS was east of PF with the good stuff. I won't trust the 18Z GFS yet though...the EC has been fairly consistent. If 00Z comes east like the GFS then he may have to jump off a chair lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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