JC-CT Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 What are people's thoughts as to why the models are so divergent with this storm? Dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It's a real tough call for bOS. It's good to not be in Southie for this one. Could be a nice Lawrence/Lowell gradient though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Well you've disagreed with just about everything I posted today..so let's keep the trends alive. You'll easily get 4-8 Models are way too warm inland at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 From Alb discussion. We usually watch the meso bands from a far. Hope to witness one this time. THU NIGHT...THEIR ARE SEVERAL SIGNALS IN THE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLYFROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF AN INTENSE MESOSCALE SNOWBAND FORMING. THE CSTARRESEARCH DONE WITH THE UNIVERSITY AT ALBANY HAS SHOWN WITH THESEINTENSE BOMBS THAT MESOSCALE SNOWBANDS CAN FORM ON THE NW SIDE OFTHE H700/500 CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH INTENSE 2-D H850-700 FGEN.EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THAT A NW TO SE CROSS-SECTION THROUGH THECAPITAL REGION BTWN 00Z-06Z IS SHOWING TREMENDOUS UPWARD VERTICALMOTION COINCIDING WITH STEEPLY SLOPED FGEN...BENEATH AN AREA OFNEGATIVE EPV. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A PIVOTING MESOSCALE SNOWBANDBASED ON THE LATEST CSTAR RESEARCH. THE DUAL JET STRUCTURE SETS UPAT NIGHT WITH A SECOND JET STREAK MOVING NEAR NEW ENGLAND...OURAREA WILL BE WEST OF THE UPPER JET AXIS/ LEFT FRONT QUAD/. PCPN EFFICIENCY LOOKS EXCELLENT WITH THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC ZONEOF -10C TO -16C OVER THE AREA WITH THE POTENTIAL MESOSCALE SNOWBAND OR BANDS. SNOW RATES COULD REACH 3" OR SO AN HOUR...IF THISBAND FORMS. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHERE THE BAND SETS UP ACROSS THEREGION. THE CAPITAL REGION COULD GET INTO THIS BAND. RIGHTNOW...FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...SRN VT...AND THE ERNCATSKILLS...SOUTH AND EAST HAVE THE BEST CHC. A LOT COULDCHANGE...SINCE THIS IS 24-30 HRS OUT IN THE FCST. THE LOW DEEPENSTO ABOUT 980 HPA NEAR SE LONG ISLAND BY MIDNIGHT...AND AROUND 975HPA IN THE GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z/FRI. IT CLASSIFIES AS A SYNOPTICBOMB WITH THE 24 HPA FALL IN MSLP IN 24 HRS. Weather erotica right there. Maybe I can get into that pivot.... It would really be helpful if the NWS snow maps had a universal color key. I''ve had to do a few double takes going from one office's map to another. 17.6/-2. Hopefully we wont' have such a depression when the precip tries to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It would mean a lot for those in the ORH-HFD corridor to shift this 30 miles on the gfs. Big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Watching Harvey now. He seems very unsure himself right now. Basically said, it could be a coastal hugger or a more offshore track. Also mentioned potential backlash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 So, you can be one of the hundreds of CT cars joining the hundreds of NY and NJ cars that trapse through Shelburne on Friday nights. Ha! I've actually thought about whether the folks on that road have seen an uptick in traffic in the age of GPS. That route used to be a relative secret. I've made that (gorgeous) drive twice in the past three weeks, but I think I might stick to 91 to route 9 in Brattleboro this time given the expected road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 For those disdain weenie snow maps, a little Bufkit love, BDL, Orh 18Z GFS is not out but that will be insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Pete Bouchard seems just as unsure, He is gung ho on the back side. "big time explosion in GOM, intensyfing extremely" "Several inches for everyone backside" !!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1-3 for BOS seems like a joke especially with the shift east on the 18z GFS with the CCB/TROWAL feature. Lows that mature near Cape Cod tend to plaster eastern southern New England, so I'm not sure why some are being so conservative. Temperatures are also running much colder than modeled in the South, so expect this one to come in on the cold side. I have to say, pretty much agreeing with everything CTBlizz is saying so far...I wouldn't be surprised if you guys get 18"+. Two part storm with a very heavy front end dump and the rapid development of CCB as the mid-level lows mature. 18z GFS has the 700mb low right over Montauk or just east, which argues for a very nice deformation band to sweet through the region. Still could use a tick east but not bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 LOL Pete was giving his snow map and saying he wants to move jackpot areas... He must have just seen the GFS. He was pointing to areas in Northern Middlesex. Making a confused look. God, this storm is awesome despite the question marks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I don't know what to think. 0.5F means 3" or 7" here. I don't like how the models are consistently mild here with temps, but I honestly think they are a hair too warm. At least for my area and BOS. Good point. It's really a nightmare forecast. Tough call. I could see like 3" inches here like you said or even like 6 or 7. Well see I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It would mean a lot for those in the ORH-HFD corridor to shift this 30 miles on the gfs. Big time. Folks in the far northwest, ENY and VT would not approve. Ha! I've actually thought about whether the folks on that road have seen an uptick in traffic in the age of GPS. That route used to be a relative secret. I've made that (gorgeous) drive twice in the past three weeks, but I think I might stick to 91 to route 9 in Brattleboro this time given the expected road conditions. I avoid it at all costs on Sundays. Smart move to 'stick to the roads, beware of the moores' Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 It would mean a lot for those in the ORH-HFD corridor to shift this 30 miles on the gfs. Big time. You know I was just thinkin' ... how many times would one actually want some convective feedback to f around with a system? Now could be one of those times if one wishes for a colder eastern solution. Because an explosion over the g-string might give them the reach around tug east they are all lubed up for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Going to be honest. This forecast sucked to make. But in the end this is what I came up with. Cut-off amount on left side is 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 It would mean a lot for those in the ORH-HFD corridor to shift this 30 miles on the gfs. Big time. Shift it where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 1-3 for BOS seems like a joke especially with the shift east on the 18z GFS with the CCB/TROWAL feature. Lows that mature near Cape Cod tend to plaster eastern southern New England, so I'm not sure why some are being so conservative. Temperatures are also running much colder than modeled in the South, so expect this one to come in on the cold side. I have to say, pretty much agreeing with everything CTBlizz is saying so far...I wouldn't be surprised if you guys get 18"+. Two part storm with a very heavy front end dump and the rapid development of CCB as the mid-level lows mature. 18z GFS has the 700mb low right over Montauk or just east, which argues for a very nice deformation band to sweet through the region. Still could use a tick east but not bad... You want the mid level lows east of you to wipe out any mid level warmth which is there and quite so. This is why I'm tying to stress. You guys in central areas would be sweet wih one more. Urge east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Watching Harvey now. He seems very unsure himself right now. Basically said, it could be a coastal hugger or a more offshore track. Also mentioned potential backlash. Can you say exactly what he's thinking and where? I swear by the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think the only certainties thus far in this storm is that the front end will give a large chunk of the region at least 4-8"...with perhaps more in some spots. There are going to be ptype issues for a time at least back to 495 in MA (and probably a bit further) and down through most of CT anywhere along and SE of 84. The biggest question marks are how intense the front end stuff gets and where the extreme rapidly intensifying mid-level centers are location during that period of most rapid intensification....if they are down east of LI near block island and cape cod, then much of SNE will get a huge finale. If they are more over central LI and up into SE CT and E MA, then it will be ALB up through VT that gets the best backlash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 4-7'' here pre-dryslot then who knows what happens after. Gut says GFS is on crack but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Shift it where? East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sammy likes 1/21/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Can you say exactly what he's thinking and where? I swear by the guy. He laid out offshore track and then offshore track and gave the public the laydown we already know what each scenario would feature. He said he does not like either track and in reality would fall somewhere in between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 You want the mid level lows east of you to wipe out any mid level warmth which is there and quite so. This is why I'm tying to stress. You guys in central areas would be sweet wih one more. Urge east. I'd also like to see the 700mb low mature a little faster than what the 18z GFS shows...it remains a bit diffuse until around Montauk, which places the deformation band to the northeast of NYC as the system is slightly slower to mature and develop deep RH. I'd like to see the 700mb close off around the NJ Coast...850mb low looked pretty good though, and the H5 vort is elongated off of NJ, which is again close to ideal for here. Again, I'd love one more shift east but I still think 12"+ is a reality for NYC regardless of what happens with the deformation band. In my mind, the only big difference is between getting 10-14" from mostly the front-end dump and getting 18-24" from both parts of the storm being ideal for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Sammy likes 1/21/11Mid levels were way colder in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Kevin L on Fox is on board for backend accums also. All in all boston met snow maps pretty similar. 6-12" north and west of the city away from the coast with the jackpot areas people have been mentioning here for days further north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2014 Author Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ha, i was just looking that FRH grid for NNE and pretty much everyone in Maine is guaranteed 10 to 20 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Harvey has deflated me......that whooshing sound you hear... But that said, this is a very important storm to learn from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 To SnowNH, your post is gone, but like Will and Scott were saying if the ml lows (especially 700mb) are over or west of us like the Euro it'll be a relative meh-fest after the initial omega thump. If the 0z Euro caves then I'll buy it but otherwise I'm kinda on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Harvey has deflated me......that whooshing sound you hear... But that said, this is a very important storm to learn from. I don't think there is any way you only see 1-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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