N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ginxy isn't it number 3 analog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ginxy isn't it number 3 analog I think it changes with different model runs but yeah, lots of similarities. Kind of playing out as a lite version for those of us who didn't know enough to pay attention back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Amazing to take a look down south and see the processes at play. Nothing like the '93 squall line/severe outbreak, but this is probably in the same league. Convection so far seems a bit deeper than anticipated close to the sfc low... think that has any influence on the track? FLradfeb12.gif So in the last event that was more SWFE in nature, but there was a lot of discussion about the warmth of convection down in the south pumping the ridge a bit in front of the system....big convection down south...how does that play into this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This airmass is heavy cold and extensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam not shy on its front end dump and colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I've been delaying all day but now I need to take the 10-16 inches of snow off of the 20x20 foot porch roof. Whatever wet that may come down after any snow will do a number on that sucker. lol after all of this softens briefly and then freezes up again tomorrow pm. Talk about pack retention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Double headed Ddo low on the Nam, darn fun I would say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 This airmass is heavy cold and extensive. It sure is Like powderfreak said -21 this am there lol. Interior is primed, wonder if there will be a decent coastal front tommorrow, does not look that way on nam/gfs/btv wrf . I am nervous about BL in my hood 7 miles wnw of ocean for thump tomm mid day. But man this storm is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 New WSW up here has bumped to totals quite a bit. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=VTZ007&warncounty=VTC005&firewxzone=VTZ007&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Warning#.UvvUg2JdXag ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON248 PM EST WED FEB 12 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO1 PM EST FRIDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY.* LOCATIONS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT INCLUDING THE WESTERNPORTIONS OF ADDISON AND RUTLAND COUNTIES.* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...10 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW.* MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATE...1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...MAINLY THURSDAYNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ANDBECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING TO SNOWSHOWERS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. Oddly their map mostly show 8 to 11 inch amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Nam not shy on its front end dump and colder I see this run as much warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bch2014 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Very warm run, 850 0 C line gets up to ~Dendrite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Winter Storm Warnings posted for GYX counties, and the new snowfall map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 18z has much more interaction with 'kicker' energy and tugs it NW. Not good tracks for SNE mid levels either. Much like some of the torchier runs we have seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just don't see how those temperature profiles are right in view of the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Will or Scott do you guys see CF setting up during front end thump tmrw late am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Terrible run for eastern new england...but it's the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just don't see how those temperature profiles are right in view of the euro. Well, we got one more Euro run before this thing kicks off so we'll see what the temp profile shows tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Any guesses to what box map will show for Bos, i think 4-6 max in city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM says forget the front end dump, the backlash will be the most intense part of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Only able to check in periodically today but a quick scroll through tells me that less than 24 hrs out there is still major uncertainty. Somehow I'm seeing posts that want to cancel any major accumualtions for anyone in SNE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM drives h85 line into far se vt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I see this run as much warmer during the thump or after? .85 or so pre 850 rise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM drives h85 line into far se vt. I think a place like S VT over towards Keene into potentially N ORH county could see extensive snow totals.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think a place like S VT over towards Keene into potentially N ORH county could see extensive snow totals.. When in doubt, always say "Woodford Vt" will jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 during the thump or after? During the thump. We definitely don't prefer this evolution. End of storm its great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Terrible run for eastern new england...but it's the NAM True, but if the NAM has an effective range we are getting into it. I wouldn't toss neccesarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 pretty impressive down south Scott Bachmeier @CIMSS_Satellite 8m Gulf of Mexico convection: VIIRS IR cloud top temperatures as cold as -79C, and >5000 lightning strikes in an hour: http://go.wisc.edu/6x502p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 True, but if the NAM has an effective range we are getting into it. I wouldn't toss neccesarily. Wait...the NAM has an effective range? When did this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 NAM says forget the front end dump, the backlash will be the most intense part of the storm ? It shows upwards of 1.00" of frozen precip on the front end in eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Winter Storm Warnings posted for GYX counties, and the new snowfall map. I'm hoping my little bit of elevation keeps some of the taint away. Kinda straddling the 10-14" line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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