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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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cng885

cng885

Posted
Posted

***ALERT ALERT, 8-12" forecast for RIC may be in trouble for RIC if you consider the 12Z GFS, CMC, and 00-06Z parallel NAM ***

Kidding aside, I think we need to step back and again consider climo. Folks n-nw-w of I95/the fall line are going to make out best here. I don't care what the model qpfs are showing...you just know by the forecast track and the fact that those areas will have the colder BL temps nad higher ratios (better chance of hanging under the pivoting CCB/deformation axis). It's just the way it goes most of the time.

That's not to say we I95ers and points east to the Bay can't make out on a decent event here. What would make this an "overperformer" for us is IF we can get appreciable accum following any mixing and/or lull in the pcpn with a dry slot...i.e. with the mid levels cutting off and a shapening/elongating/longer lasting deformation band.

IMBY, that will make all the difference in an event that goes from 6 to maybe 8 vs. 8-12". Again, our best events along/east of I95 are obviously not just front-side loaded.

Started laughing out loud in class.

Interesting to see the nam and Canadian heading down a little different path compared to the last few days when they were similar.

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

Yeah, March 6 last year quickly comes to mind.  If rates slow even a little w/ such marginal temps then......

airmass is a good bit better going in and it comes in earlier so we aren't racing against sunrise. thursday could be shot accumwise though depending on solution. 

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clskinsfan

clskinsfan

Posted
Posted

But the ratios make no sense.  I beleive others have said to ignore that Bufkit output.  For instance, the ratios between 1200 and 1500z are > 22, which is not possible around here in a southern stream system (and probably not even for a cold NS system).  I see it also outputs a 12:1 ratio at 1100Z when sleet is falling (at least I think that is what SNPL is).

 

Ignore the ratio's. Look at the QPF. It's over and inch all snow. Big time snow storm.

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va_ghost

va_ghost

Posted
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Started laughing out loud in class.

Interesting to see the nam and Canadian heading down a little different path compared to the last few days when they were similar.

 

 

Utter newbie here so I did not get the humor.  But with the models showing more warmth is this turning into a rain event for RIC area in VA?

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CheesyPoofs

CheesyPoofs

Posted
Posted

Yeah, March 6 last year quickly comes to mind. If rates slow even a little w/ such marginal temps then......

During Sundays mini event (1"), snow started sticking immediately IMBY even with lighter rates. Yeah, once we got into mod snow it stuck easier, but it still stuck throughout, and temps werent super cold.

I'm not saying light rates wouldn't be an issue, but every day makes a difference--there's a relatively big difference between February 13th and March 6th when it comes to sun angle.

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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

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During Sundays mini event (1"), snow started sticking immediately IMBY even with lighter rates. Yeah, once we got into mod snow it stuck easier, but it still stuck throughout, and temps werent super cold.

I'm not saying light rates wouldn't be an issue, but every day makes a difference--there's a relatively big difference between February 13th and March 6th when it comes to sun angle.

Matt is right.  3 weeks of sun angle at this time of year is huge.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

NAM and Ukie look fine. CMC, who really cares, it still is not a great model. WPC gave it zero weight yesterday. GFS we need to come around, but it may take till 12z tomorrow before it does. 12z Euro is a big run now..need it to hold and not show any movement towards west/weaker/warmer.

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Wonderdog

Wonderdog

Posted
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You can only say a model has been terrible only when you know the eventual outcome.  Easily, you could come back in two days and change terrible to correct.  We may have to wait until 00Z...and then maybe this thing is so walking the tightrope as Bob said, that consensus will be weak right up until nowcasting time.  There is no way to know.  All you can do is stay tuned and look for what makes sense.

You can only say a model has been terrible only when you know the eventual outcome.  Easily, you could come back in two days and change terrible to correct.  We may have to wait until 00Z...and then maybe this thing is so walking the tightrope as Bob said, that consensus will be weak right up until nowcasting time.  There is no way to know.  All you can do is stay tuned and look for what makes sense.

the way I see this is that every model is hitting us hard except the GFS. And the GFS is slowly coming around. Unless the Euro caves in this afternoon my guess is that the GFS will continue to improve.

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
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I'm not one for being overly-dramatic, but one could argue that the 12Z EC could be the biggest run of the season. Or not. Or the 00Z run.

We still have time for positive trends, with the event still 30+ hours away. But, we are running out of time, especially since more and more current observed data upstteam is getting sampled.

Really curious to see what the Euro has to say with all this.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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One thing is for certain, it's frigid out there. Colder ground temps and reduced February insolation should prevent another March 6th if we can achieve a 2-4" foundation by sunrise, imo.

I've found that snow accumulates well on snow.

Rates overcome isolation. That, and it has to actually be snow, not sleet falling.

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