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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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You guys are saturated to the strat with omega throughout the mid levels. Maybe someone with bufkit can comment, but I don't see a lot to stop the dendrite unloading at peak forcing. Arguably, the dendritic zone is a little high, giving flakes time to alter/rime but meh...

If we can just hold on until 15z instead of 12z, we win...big time.  Even getting to just 12z we'd be good.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

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It's awful close between 7am-10am but if we held on verbatim with the nam model, here's the totals through 10am. VERY impressive. 

 

attachicon.gifhres10am.JPG

 

the 12z and 15z soundings are better than you might think....we'd be snow all the way until 10....the NAM is suggesting that during those heavy bands at 4am we mix...which is possible and we will all complain

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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the 12z and 15z soundings are better than you might think....we'd be snow all the way until 10....the NAM is suggesting that during those heavy bands at 4am we mix...which is possible and we will all complain

You sure?

 

And if heavier precip is the requirement to be back the thin layer, I'd think we'd do better at 9z than 15z?

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mappy

mappy

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We're all pretty pumped about the front end threat here. It's been so long since we had area wide +SN. I doubt many hardcore or even casual weenies will be sleeping tonight. I'm napping after the euro. lol

 

ill be sleeping, though may stay up later than usual. and the kiddo will have me up by dawn. so it works out :)

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Deck Pic

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You sure?

 

And if heavier precip is the requirement to be back the thin layer, I'd think we'd do better at 9z than 15z?

 

the warm nose at 900-925 erodes and flattens toward dawn, and then our big issue becomes 750-850 warming by mid to late morning...the 12z sounding is fine and would be snow in heavy precip...

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PDIII

PDIII

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I wonder if we switch to rain, that actually could be bad. If temps crash into the 20's Thur night the snow could freeze solid like a block of ice. The type where you can stand on top of it and its impossible to move. Ala March 1993.

That would be absolutely wonderful.. how could that be bad?

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Joshfsu123

Joshfsu123

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We're all pretty pumped about the front end threat here. It's been so long since we had area wide +SN. I doubt many hardcore or even casual weenies will be sleeping tonight. I'm napping after the euro. lol

 

I will not be sleeping, that's for sure. Can't wait - hopefully the storm doesn't let us down.

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usedtobe

usedtobe

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it's the warm nose at 900-925mb that we need to be worried about....it is a very shallow layer and so close to freezing not sure we get PD2 style driving sleet...that was an inversion layer above 850mb anyway which is harder to combat.....that happens to us mid morning...we get a warm layer above...it is much less likely to get snow when you have that....a tiny warm nose at 900mb?...f-uck that...we can snow through that...

Actually, if the NAM forecast were perfect, it would be snowing at 12Z and probably 15 if the precip rates stayed decent.   By 18Z the sounding is a freezing drizzle sounding if the surface temps stays below freezing which it probably will except maybe right in the city.  shove the warm nose temp to above 1C and we probably get sleet. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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Thanks Bob.  Those paint a very interesting picture of how temps will be affected by rates.  

 

 

I think it's safe to say that we have a decent chance at all snow through 7am'ish. Average qpf is somewhere in the .75 range so far across guidance. Hardly anything to be bummed about. The maximas and flip spots become nowcasting meso after that. 

 

Euro was .75'ish last night during that time. I would hedge wetter. We'll probably see guidance do that through the day. The gfs may go from .08 to .8. lol

 

Gulf moisture laden systems have beat model guidance qpf all year. Too bad most of us got rain out of them. haha

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HM

HM

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If we can just hold on until 15z instead of 12z, we win...big time. Even getting to just 12z we'd be good.

This is not going to be a prolific period for you anyway. Plot the 500mb omega to see what I mean, since DC's dendrite zone is between 500-600mb. Omega up there arrives 00z, peaks 3-9z and then is gone. You won't be making good snowflakes after this moves through.

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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I think it's safe to say that we have a decent chance at all snow through 7am'ish. Average qpf is somewhere in the .75 range so far across guidance. Hardly anything to be bummed about. The maximas and flip spots become nowcasting meso after that. 

 

Euro was .75'ish last night during that time. I would hedge wetter. We'll probably see guidance do that through the day. The gfs may go from .08 to .8. lol

 

Gulf moisture laden systems have beat model guidance qpf all year. Too bad most of us got rain out of them. haha

Mesoscale banding and the snow growth you and HM alluded to are going to make tonight fun.  Someone will probably have 12" on the ground by 7-8am tomorrow.  Looks like most of us will have 1"/hr rates for a few hours at least overnight and in the bands probably 2"/hr or maybe even 3"/hr.  Gonna be fun.  

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ohleary

ohleary

Posted
Posted

NAM DCA at 15Z tomorrow...lower layers:

 

  975.00,    251.55,     -2.07,     -2.88,     21.97,     26.86,     0.000297
  950.00,    457.94,     -2.15,     -2.43,     33.89,     39.78,    -0.000875
  925.00,    670.52,     -0.46,     -0.59,     49.41,     49.82,    -0.002364
  900.00,    889.89,      0.28,      0.26,     60.41,     47.95,    -0.003685
  875.00,   1116.11,      0.72,      0.68,     71.91,     39.96,    -0.004605
  850.00,   1349.42,      1.17,      1.17,     85.08,     31.83,    -0.005023
  825.00,   1589.90,      1.30,      1.04,     96.58,     23.27,    -0.004975
  800.00,   1837.49,      0.62,      0.28,    109.15,     18.31,    -0.004840
  775.00,   2091.96,     -0.20,     -0.98,    120.86,     15.63,    -0.004555
  750.00,   2354.10,     -1.09,     -1.91,    127.27,     14.39,    -0.004378
  725.00,   2623.93,     -2.41,     -3.47,    142.33,     13.08,    -0.004343
 

About 1500 meters above 0C but only maxing out at about 34F.j

 

18Z:

 

  975.00,    217.92,     -1.34,     -1.80,     10.77,     23.62,     0.000510
  950.00,    424.62,     -2.50,     -2.64,     21.12,     34.42,    -0.000712
  925.00,    636.49,     -1.93,     -2.23,     36.80,     43.20,    -0.002866
  900.00,    854.82,     -0.55,     -0.55,     51.79,     44.53,    -0.004918
  875.00,   1080.61,      0.63,      0.58,     64.97,     36.57,    -0.005905
  850.00,   1314.10,      1.23,      1.24,     75.38,     25.03,    -0.005869
  825.00,   1554.53,      1.39,      1.32,     88.09,     17.10,    -0.005416
  800.00,   1802.59,      1.15,      1.04,    104.25,      9.90,    -0.004686
  775.00,   2057.78,      0.38,     -0.01,    134.32,      8.20,    -0.004131
  750.00,   2320.45,     -0.33,     -1.05,    159.45,     11.30,    -0.004023
  725.00,   2591.32,     -1.60,     -3.10,    171.91,     14.61,    -0.004100

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