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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

DCTeacherman16 minutes ago

"Loving the look of the deform band on the EURO, jackpot west of town but pivots through DC metro to cap us off with another few inches."

Just want to see a wall of heavy snow approaching at 8 am tonight and put 6-10 on the ground by daybreak, and then will take my chances with the Thursday evolution. The gambler in me like that this could bust high.

As mentioned yesterday, what wouldl put this storm in the "overperformer" category for us east of I95 is another 1-3/2-4" accumulation with the backside CCB. Well, that and over 6" of front-end snow.

Granted, while I'd gladly take the double digits, it would be hard not to think about the ongoing pouring snow to my west as I mix or changeover to sleet or rain..

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dtk

dtk

Posted
Posted

looks like vinyl and others arguing this last night were right after all.

Just because a forecaster expressed their opinion in a discussion does not validate the claim regarding "feedback".  It's opinion.....I am a met as well and I don't happen to 100% agree. 

 

I don't expect the GFS to end up being right, but using feedback is a total cop out.  It had been a real issue some time ago in the summer convective season where the GFS would literally get single grid point storms, but this isn't even close to that type of situation.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

I'm setting my bar in the 8-12 range I think. Anything less will be terrible.

I guess you didn't like my 7.5 call. I'm upping my dc call to 7.75.

The nice part here is its snow for all and below freezing at onset. No waste. Totals will be relatively uniform before mixing. I expect sleet but it could easily hold off till the very end of the thump.

Dryslot isn't a guarantee for the cities imo. Track isn't nailed down to a 20 mile range. Should be a fun day

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ohleary

ohleary

Posted
Posted

Disappointing raobs from the southeast U.S. this morning for the NAM...no Charleston SC sounding...Nashville no winds...incomplete from Little Rock...had to delete lower levels temp/rh Tallahassee....

 

EDIT: looks like CHS made it in just in the nick of time.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Disappointing raobs from the southeast U.S. this morning for the NAM...no Charleston SC sounding...Nashville no winds...incomplete from Little Rock...had to delete lower levels temp/rh Tallahassee....

Just to clarify, does this mean that whatever the 12z NAM shows, we should take with a grain of salt because of the missing RAOBs in the SE?

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I guess you didn't like my 7.5 call. I'm upping my dc call to 7.75.

The nice part here is its snow for all and below freezing at onset. No waste. Totals will be relatively uniform before mixing. I expect sleet but it could easily hold off till the very end of the thump.

Dryslot isn't a guarantee for the cities imo. Track isn't nailed down to a 20 mile range. Should be a fun day

I think your numbers were fine.. maybe low. I still don't have the best handle on during the day tomorrow. We appear relatively locked in for tonight and as you say that should be pretty uniform.  The ground is rock hard here. 

 

I haven't even looked at the Euro and have a morning event so may not get to it till later. It sounded better at least..

 

If we have 5-10 on the ground in the morning tomorrow the raw temps for the day are probably a little high as is.  Matt was noting last night in txt but not sure we went onto the right track for tomorrow for sure yday... scenario where it's quite wintry throughout seems plausible. 

 

I think I have a pretty good shot at double digits.. maybe even DCA.

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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

This might be our last good storm for 5 years.. it better be really good.

I have a hunch next winter will be active. Probably not as arctic cold, but with possibly at least a weak El Nino, and with at least a better chance for some blocking/-NAO phases (which we lacked this winter), I just think we'll do well, as in above climo snowfall wise.

:-)

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