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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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AlexD

AlexD

Posted
Posted

I'm liking the chances for the wrap around snows here in Salisbury. That's usually rare to get any accumulating snow after the storm changes to rain. MAYBE we can get an inch late Thursday night.

Here are my thoughts :)

attachicon.gifsnowfall.jpg

its a real shame we can't get in on the main part of this storm...I for one am sitting here holding out hopes of a last minute east trend, but I don't think it's likely to happen...
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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

Posted
Posted

925 0 line just s/e of DC at 9z....could be some pingers..toward the morning.....FWIW, I think the models are all too warm

I actually think they're a bit too warm in the low levels. The t/dp combo should be pretty suitable to cool down into the 20's as the snow starts tonight. If you have 6-10" areawide on the ground by 7-8AM, then you're probably not going to get too warm.

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

part of the reason we warm is because we dryslot....only about 0.2" from 12z to 18z....I doubt that will be driving rain.....we'll flip to moderate sleet and then to light mix/rain....and then flip back to snow....I dont see some driving rainstorm....

 

BTW...12z sounding for DC is way better than you might think...implies that mixing toward dawn might be more mix than flip...perhaps all snow when still heavy

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stormtracker

stormtracker

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Just because a forecaster expressed their opinion in a discussion does not validate the claim regarding "feedback".  It's opinion.....I am a met as well and I don't happen to 100% agree. 

 

I don't expect the GFS to end up being right, but using feedback is a total cop out.  It had been a real issue some time ago in the summer convective season where the GFS would literally get single grid point storms, but this isn't even close to that type of situation.

Cool, but you might wanna take that up with the forecaster who said it.

 

I was just stating that vinyl and some others might not have been off and on the usual weenie excuse of convective feedback, give than someone in the know offered the same opinion.

 

I don't hate the GFS.

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

part of the reason we warm is because we dryslot....only about 0.2" from 12z to 18z....I doubt that will be driving rain.....we'll flip to moderate sleet and then to light mix/rain....and then flip back to snow....I dont see some driving rainstorm....

BTW...12z sounding for DC is way better than you might think...implies that mixing toward dawn might be more mix than flip...perhaps all snow when still heavy

Good post. Gives hope/confidence a shot in the arm that we mostly maximize the heaviest period near the cities. Not much to complain about

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Huffwx

Huffwx

Posted
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I'd be very happy with 12, that would put me exactly at climo for year (26.8). 

So if nothing else happens after, at least I made it there. :)

But whatever I end up with is good in my book, white ground beats brown anyday! 

 

NAM sits the deformation zone on you for days. So, 10-12 front side and then whatever you get tomorrow. 

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mattmfm

mattmfm

Posted
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part of the reason we warm is because we dryslot....only about 0.2" from 12z to 18z....I doubt that will be driving rain.....we'll flip to moderate sleet and then to light mix/rain....and then flip back to snow....I dont see some driving rainstorm....

BTW...12z sounding for DC is way better than you might think...implies that mixing toward dawn might be more mix than flip...perhaps all snow when still heavy

Agree, it's all induced by a fall in uvv and proximity of dry slot. If we're sitting under 20+ dbz with a NW wind it's still likely snow at 31-33 surface.

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