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About 5speed6

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Edgewater, MD
  1. Yeah, and the tops are coming back up in the SE quad. Cat3 is a stretch at this point, but she's far from dead.
  2. Looks like 18Z para is still buying what the 12z euro was selling.
  3. Yeah, I was going to call it "consistency bias" but I was afraid that would sound too critical.
  4. Of course. And they're less likely to change their thinking based on a single model run, as the past few pages illustrate.
  5. Yeah, I'm skeptical of the northern extent of those 8"-plus numbers, especially if the southern solutions verify. Seems like the whole swath should be canted more west. Then again, NWS tends to lag the prevailing model guidance, so...
  6. Don't worry; it'll make up for it with like an 837mb low before landfall.
  7. 5:00 p.m. NHC guidance will probably still stay farther north than the mean of those runs. There may be quite a spread, but it's pretty clear which ones are getting more weight.
  8. Yeah, a friend just posted a shot of a Kroger in the RVA area.
  9. Consider too the limitations imposed by the ICW. There a *ton* of bottlenecks when it comes to moving people to/from the coast quickly. It's arguably just as bad as getting people off the OBX, only there are more of them.
  10. Correct. In the original, Andrew "fades in."
  11. Interesting piece from a perhaps unexpected source: https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/07/as-irma-nears-florida-governor-tells-residents-to-use-gas-buddy-expedia-google-maps-more/ Consider that a lot of states were already experiencing fuel shortages thanks to Harvey's impact on U.S. refining capacity.
  12. The interaction with the Bay could also be a significant factor in how/where surge becomes a major problem, all dependent on the final approach track, of course.
  13. Yeah, here's hoping that's confusion or poor transmission quality...