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5speed6

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Everything posted by 5speed6

  1. 5speed6

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Yeah, and the tops are coming back up in the SE quad. Cat3 is a stretch at this point, but she's far from dead.
  2. 5speed6

    Hurricane Florence

    Looks like 18Z para is still buying what the 12z euro was selling.
  3. 5speed6

    Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD

    Consensus line is south of the 2:00 guidance, too.
  4. 5speed6

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Yeah, I was going to call it "consistency bias" but I was afraid that would sound too critical.
  5. 5speed6

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Of course. And they're less likely to change their thinking based on a single model run, as the past few pages illustrate.
  6. 5speed6

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Yeah, I'm skeptical of the northern extent of those 8"-plus numbers, especially if the southern solutions verify. Seems like the whole swath should be canted more west. Then again, NWS tends to lag the prevailing model guidance, so...
  7. 5speed6

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The 'Dome is no more.
  8. 5speed6

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Don't worry; it'll make up for it with like an 837mb low before landfall.
  9. 5speed6

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    5:00 p.m. NHC guidance will probably still stay farther north than the mean of those runs. There may be quite a spread, but it's pretty clear which ones are getting more weight.
  10. 5speed6

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Yeah, a friend just posted a shot of a Kroger in the RVA area.
  11. 5speed6

    2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread

    Consider too the limitations imposed by the ICW. There a *ton* of bottlenecks when it comes to moving people to/from the coast quickly. It's arguably just as bad as getting people off the OBX, only there are more of them.
  12. 5speed6

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Correct. In the original, Andrew "fades in."
  13. 5speed6

    Hurricane Irma Local Impacts/Evacuations

    Interesting piece from a perhaps unexpected source: https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/07/as-irma-nears-florida-governor-tells-residents-to-use-gas-buddy-expedia-google-maps-more/ Consider that a lot of states were already experiencing fuel shortages thanks to Harvey's impact on U.S. refining capacity.
  14. 5speed6

    Major Hurricane Irma

    The interaction with the Bay could also be a significant factor in how/where surge becomes a major problem, all dependent on the final approach track, of course.
  15. 5speed6

    Major Hurricane Irma

    Yeah, here's hoping that's confusion or poor transmission quality...
  16. 5speed6

    2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion Thread II

    I rode out the leftovers from TS Alberto in a house between Duck and Corolla in 2006, but that tracked just a hair further west/north, IIRC.
  17. 5speed6

    Aug OBS / Discuss

    Amazing how little that surplus matters right now.
  18. 5speed6

    Photos thread for Jan 22-24 Blizzard

    As promised, my time lapse:
  19. May be time for a new obs thread? Getting database errors.
  20. Still backbuilding, but the incoming bands aren't nearly as impressive.
  21. 5speed6

    Photos thread for Jan 22-24 Blizzard

    Obligatory dog bathroom remodeling photo.
  22. Some great returns on those bands about to cross the Bay too. Northern AACo and Baltimore, get ready!
  23. Returns over AA County getting interesting. BWI just got in it, big time.
  24. Just went out to do the same. Light snow and riming. Some pingers mixed in. I'm in a horrible spot for measuring but judging by the path I cut, I'd say the mean depth is in the 10" range.
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