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Everything posted by 5speed6
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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
5speed6 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, and the tops are coming back up in the SE quad. Cat3 is a stretch at this point, but she's far from dead. -
Looks like 18Z para is still buying what the 12z euro was selling.
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Major Hurricane Florence: STORM MODE THREAD
5speed6 replied to stormtracker's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Consensus line is south of the 2:00 guidance, too. -
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
5speed6 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, I was going to call it "consistency bias" but I was afraid that would sound too critical. -
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
5speed6 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Of course. And they're less likely to change their thinking based on a single model run, as the past few pages illustrate. -
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
5speed6 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, I'm skeptical of the northern extent of those 8"-plus numbers, especially if the southern solutions verify. Seems like the whole swath should be canted more west. Then again, NWS tends to lag the prevailing model guidance, so... -
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
5speed6 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Mercedes-Benz Stadium. The 'Dome is no more. -
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
5speed6 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Don't worry; it'll make up for it with like an 837mb low before landfall. -
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
5speed6 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
5:00 p.m. NHC guidance will probably still stay farther north than the mean of those runs. There may be quite a spread, but it's pretty clear which ones are getting more weight. -
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
5speed6 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yeah, a friend just posted a shot of a Kroger in the RVA area. -
2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
5speed6 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Consider too the limitations imposed by the ICW. There a *ton* of bottlenecks when it comes to moving people to/from the coast quickly. It's arguably just as bad as getting people off the OBX, only there are more of them. -
Correct. In the original, Andrew "fades in."
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Hurricane Irma Local Impacts/Evacuations
5speed6 replied to Baroclinic Zone's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Interesting piece from a perhaps unexpected source: https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/07/as-irma-nears-florida-governor-tells-residents-to-use-gas-buddy-expedia-google-maps-more/ Consider that a lot of states were already experiencing fuel shortages thanks to Harvey's impact on U.S. refining capacity. -
The interaction with the Bay could also be a significant factor in how/where surge becomes a major problem, all dependent on the final approach track, of course.
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Yeah, here's hoping that's confusion or poor transmission quality...
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2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion Thread II
5speed6 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
I rode out the leftovers from TS Alberto in a house between Duck and Corolla in 2006, but that tracked just a hair further west/north, IIRC. -
Amazing how little that surplus matters right now.
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As promised, my time lapse:
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May be time for a new obs thread? Getting database errors.
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Still backbuilding, but the incoming bands aren't nearly as impressive.
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Obligatory dog bathroom remodeling photo.
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Eeesh.
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Some great returns on those bands about to cross the Bay too. Northern AACo and Baltimore, get ready!
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Returns over AA County getting interesting. BWI just got in it, big time.
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Just went out to do the same. Light snow and riming. Some pingers mixed in. I'm in a horrible spot for measuring but judging by the path I cut, I'd say the mean depth is in the 10" range.