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February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

stormtracker

By stormtracker,
in Mid Atlantic

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Counties bordering the SW corner of LWX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA205 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY....A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY ALONGTHE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL PUSH MOISTURENORTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. COLD AIR ALREADY IN PLACEDURING THAT TIME WILL CAUSE THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL MAINLY ASSNOW...WITH A FEW HOURS OF SLEET POSSIBLE EAST OF DANVILLE VA.STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS...IN ADDITION TO THEPOTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW BANDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA...WILLLEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 10 INCH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONSACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TO THE BLUE RIDGE...AND 10 TO 14 INCHESACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.VAZ011-018>020-022>024-034-035-045>047-059-WVZ042>045-120315-/O.UPG.KRNK.WS.A.0002.140212T1100Z-140214T0300Z//O.EXB.KRNK.WS.W.0004.140212T1800Z-140213T2300Z/GILES-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PEARISBURG...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BEDFORD...AMHERST...LYNCHBURG...APPOMATTOX...KEYSVILLE...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE205 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM ESTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAYTO 6 PM EST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER INEFFECT.* LOCATIONS...AREAS OF VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA  NORTH OF HIGHWAY 460.* TIMING...EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE  POSSIBLE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...WITH 10 TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE  FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE  POSSIBLE.* MAIN IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW CAN LEAD TO SLICK AND HAZARDOUS  TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATES ON ROADWAYS. THE  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AND WET...AND MAY WEIGH DOWN ON  TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. SPORADIC POWER OUTAGES ARE  POSSIBLE.
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WxMan1

WxMan1

Posted
Posted

That's a pretty decent call. I think knowing what we know now, if we took a clustered approach from the models and ensemble members, throwing out the outliers, I think you get that 4-6 or 4-8" range. Before the 12Z guidance I thought the 5-10 (CWG) was a very good call. It still may be, though I think with the focus on the lower end of that range. I.E. the probs of 4" is still decently high, but I think the probs for us in the 8-10" range went down a bit with the 12Z blended guidance.

Split the difference with your 4-6 and LWX's 6-8" and you get 4-8". Works for me for now, as long as that ends up being the lowest forecast :-)

If I had to give a guess I would say 4"-6" in the Baltimore area with mixing and rain later in the day.

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cigrgd

cigrgd

Posted
Posted

WPC's Kocin and Cisco throwing in the towel...also, three supplemental sounding sites through 12/18Z...FFC, CHS, GSO. Might give a better handle on temps.

 

Euro 850 mb 0C line out to Sterling at 18Z...so hopefully pellets but the trend warmer at the 12Z suite is ominous.  Still snow overnight though!

From Jim Cisco's Facebook:

 

***SOME BIG, UGLY FLIES IN THE WEATHER OINTMENT WITH THE NEWEST DATA COMING IN. IT IS NOW NOT POSSIBLE TO GIVE A MEANINGFUL SNOWFALL FORECAST COUNTY-BY-COUNTY FOR THE STORM EXPECTED IN THE MID ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT & THURSDAY. THE INTRUSION OF WARM AIR IS AN EMERGENT, GLARING ISSUE. WHEN IT COMES TO SNOW-VS-RAIN, ALL BETS ARE OFF ON ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW, THE GENERAL FORECAST I ISSUED LATE LAST EVENING SHOULD SERVE REASONABLY. I WILL UPDATE WITH WHAT INFORMATION I CAN LATER IN THE DAY. MEA CULPA***

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ohleary

ohleary

Posted
Posted

Throwing in the towel?

 

 

They have?

 

Haha...well with regard to Thursday and big snow accums.  Hoping for at best sleet with the 12Z suite warming as it did.  Were joking about the downsloping calling it a chinook on Thursday into Friday.  But I'm just overhearing their banter...I'd wait for their official forecasts if I were me.

 

EDIT: also obviously there's time for a jog east so "throwing in the towel" was not exactly accurate.  Sorry for the unnecessary excitement!  But the post above from Jim's FB page more or less says what I was hearing.

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The_Global_Warmer

The_Global_Warmer

Posted
Posted

I'd take 3/4 of that right now, which would be 3" better than the 1/2 and 1/21 Miller B's for me..

 

 

I was just pointing it out from following along.  we have had some crazy outputs on those wxbell maps in the Midwest and they would have 6-18" of snow where it would mostly be sleet and zr hundreds of miles off.

 

 

On our local blog Pro Met Chris Higgins has banned those maps for the most part because of how ridiculous they are.

 

Where you guys are the threat of mix is not near as much though.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted

Haha...well with regard to Thursday and big snow accums.  Hoping for at best sleet with the 12Z suite warming as it did.  Were joking about the downsloping calling it a chinook on Thursday into Friday.  But I'm just overhearing their banter...I'd wait for their official forecasts if I were me.

 

EDIT: also obviously there's time for a jog east so "throwing in the towel" was not exactly accurate.  Sorry for the unnecessary excitement!  But the post above from Jim's FB page more or less says what I was hearing.

 

which is reasonable given the changes in the 12z models today.

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clueless

clueless

Posted
Posted

If guidance is suggesting a blend of models, then I would not take Euro verbatim. I think DCA will do better than modeled right now. Sure we have a warm nose, but it is headed into a pretty cold air mass etc as per WXMan's post. This is not the time to jump ship.

We weren't going to have a big event anyway this winter. Hugging all the modeled snow now.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

I dont get the unhappiness over the Euro. It is still an incredible storm for everyone as depicted. And no model is going to be able to say where the heavy bands will pass through. Do the cities mix? Of course, they always do with big storms. But this run is still huge.

 

Def agree... yes we all want 12"+... but 6-10 is still nice.  The EPS mean has constantly been slightly east of the OP (zwyts or Bob Chill can confirm this I believe)... so lets wait for that before tightening the noose a bit more

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Warnings from LWX should be coming soon... CTP issued one for Lancaster/York/Adams

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA230 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY....A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK AND NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOWIS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LATEST DATA INDICATES ANINCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH GOODCONFIDENCE THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A CHAMBERSBURG TOHARRISBURG LINE COULD PICK UP MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATEWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH 10 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVERSOUTHERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES NEAR THE MARYLAND BORDER. ASHARP GRADIENT AND DROP OFF IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTEDNORTH AND WEST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA.PAZ064>066-121000-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0003.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0005.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z/ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER230 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM ESTTHURSDAY...
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andyhb

andyhb

Posted
Posted

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
213 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014  
 
VALID FEB 11/1200 UTC THRU FEB 15/0000 UTC  
 
...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR  
INGEST...  
 
==============================================  
12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES  
==============================================  
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO  
SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT.  
==============================================  
   
..EASTERN U.S. CYCLONE AND WINTER STORM  
 
PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET WITH THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE  
MEAN  
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ON THE LARGE SCALE...BELOW AVERAGE FOR  
PRECIPITATION TYPE  
 
DESPITE BOTH NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES HAVING  
ENTERED THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK...SOME SIGNIFICANT  
MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN. WHAT WE DO KNOW WITH CONFIDENCE IS THAT  
THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND  
SNOW OVER A BROAD SWATH AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND THE EAST  
COAST STATES. CONCEPTUALLY THE MODELS INDICATE SIMILAR IDEAS TO  
ONE ANOTHER...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG THE  
CENTRAL GULF COAST AROUND 12/12Z AND THE CYCLONE THEN DEEPENING AS  
IT TRACKS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE OUTER BANKS  
IN NORTH CAROLINA AND THEN UP THE EAST COAST.  
 
THE GFS HAD BEEN ONE OF THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS ESPECIALLY WHEN  
MEASURED BY THE SURFACE LOW DEPTH AND THE LATE ONSET OF A CLOSED  
CIRCULATION AT 500 MB. THE GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER AT THE  
SURFACE...BUT IS STILL SLOW TO CLOSE OFF A LOW AT 500 MB...AND IS  
CORRESPONDINGLY FASTER IN ITS FORWARD SPEED. THE MOST CONSISTENT  
OPERATIONAL MODELS FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE BEEN THE ECMWF AND  
UKMET...AND THEY DISPLAYED THE SAME TREND ON THE 12Z  
CYCLE...SLIGHTLY SLOWER...WHICH YIELDS A WARMER SOLUTION NORTHWARD  
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COASTS. BLENDING THESE TWO  
MODELS TOWARD THE 12Z GEFS MEAN IS OUR APPROACH FOR FAVORING THE  
MORE CONSISTENT MODELS THAT ARE DISPLAYING SMALL SCALE  
TRENDS...WHILE ACKNOWLEDGING THE CONTINUED WIDER RANGE OF  
SOLUTIONS REPRESENTED ESPECIALLY BY THE FASTER NCEP GUIDANCE. THE  
GEFS MEAN CLUSTERED MORE CLOSELY WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET...WHEREAS  
THE OPERATIONAL NAM/GFS WERE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER.  
 
THE NAM HAS FALLEN NEAR CONSENSUS ON OCCASION...BUT THE 12Z RUN  
DID NOT. IT IS THE FLATTEST MODEL WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE THAT SPURS THIS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH  
YIELDS A FAST AND WEAK SYSTEM OVERALL. IT IS NOT RECOMMENDED TO  
PUT MUCH...IF ANY...WEIGHT ON THE NAM AFTER DAY 1.

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lpaschall

lpaschall

Posted
Posted

 

Warnings from LWX should be coming soon... CTP issued one for Lancaster/York/Adams

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA230 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY....A STRONG STORM WILL MOVE UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY ANDTHURSDAY. THE STORM TRACK AND NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF HEAVY SNOWIS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE LATEST DATA INDICATES ANINCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...WITH GOODCONFIDENCE THAT AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF A CHAMBERSBURG TOHARRISBURG LINE COULD PICK UP MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW LATEWEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH 10 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVERSOUTHERN LANCASTER AND YORK COUNTIES NEAR THE MARYLAND BORDER. ASHARP GRADIENT AND DROP OFF IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS EXPECTEDNORTH AND WEST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA.PAZ064>066-121000-/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0003.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z//O.NEW.KCTP.WS.W.0005.140213T0600Z-140214T0300Z/ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER230 PM EST TUE FEB 11 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM ESTTHURSDAY...

Still looking good for westminster

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

Def agree... yes we all want 12"+... but 6-10 is still nice.  The EPS mean has constantly been slightly east of the OP (zwyts or Bob Chill can confirm this I believe)... so lets wait for that before tightening the noose a bit more

comparing 850 temps on the SREF at 51 vs. 57 on the last run, the 0-line has ticked west by 10-20 miles

trend is no longer our friend this afternoon

NAM is next to follow suit, though I hope not

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RIC_WX

RIC_WX

Posted
Posted

The appearance of a dry slot on the 12z models is particularly ominous for RIC. Similar to 12/2009 event they could do well early and then shut off abruptly pushing accumulations to the low end of guidance. For whatever reason, seen this happen a lot in high impact events over the years, but aways seems to be less of a problem north and west.

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