February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[PhineasC]

Amazing how quickly things can fall apart.

 

I refuse to be worried about RGEM temps.

[yoda]

12z GGEM

 

36 -- 1007 L in Big Bend of FL... near TAL... measurable QPF (as in 1-5mm) as close as EZF

[MN Transplant]

GFS will be many people's 3rd or 4th best storm of the winter

 

Would be my 2nd best.

 

Agreed. This better be the floor. Plus, the airmass going into the event here is notably colder than March 6th, plus it's 3 weeks ealier on the calendar. Both factors have to help us at least with the front side snow..

 

 

Yeah, I like the front end, but without rates on the back we would be in trouble.

 

72 12z UKIE QPF map

 

12zUKIE2-11-14QPF72hrmap.gif

 

1.5" qpf total?

[clskinsfan]

It's getting hard to ignore the gfs less amped and drier solution isn't it. It's been bugging me like heck for days now. The 12z run was so close though. It closed off @ 45 and wasn't ragged. The ns vort had a nice backside dig into the trough. It's a damn tightrope. Even if the euro plasters us again the risks are on the table for sure. 

 

All the foreign models still have an amped solution. If the GFS verifies it can never be blasted again on this site.

[wxmeddler]

RGEM a bit warm.

[yoda]

Would be my 2nd best.

 

 

Yeah, I like the front end, but without rates on the back we would be in trouble.

 

 

1.5" qpf total?

 

I believe so... meteogram comes out at 12:30 though for the 12z UKIE on meteocentre

[Ian]

Not sure if or how this matters, but does the Ukie have a 4D VAR type of assimilation?  I know the Euro and Canadian do.  Just that it seems interesting the 4D VAR solutions (global models) are really phasing the system and wrapping it up.  GFS is 3D VAR, and it's almost...but not quite...there, plus it's drier.  May just be coincidence, but just asking.

I think it does.

[wxmeddler]

+SN before warm nose gets wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy close for comfort.

[BTRWx]

Has anyone noticed the dry-slot wrapping around the west side of the Low? That seems faulty to me. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[mappy]

+SN before warm nose gets wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy close for comfort.

 

 

pssst, its been discussed

[Deck Pic]

Ukmet has ~.55 for DC from 6z to 12z Thursday...so it is juiced

[blizzardmeiser]

+SN before warm nose gets wayyyyyyyyyyyyyy close for comfort.

definitely trending warmer

[stormtracker]

You can only say a model has been terrible only when you know the eventual outcome.  Easily, you could come back in two days and change terrible to correct.  We may have to wait until 00Z...and then maybe this thing is so walking the tightrope as Bob said, that consensus will be weak right up until nowcasting time.  There is no way to know.  All you can do is stay tuned and look for what makes sense.

Rephrase...it has been playing catch-up

[TowsonWeather]

All the foreign models still have an amped solution. If the GFS verifies it can never be blasted again on this site.

 

The GFS was so far away from a solution even remotely like the one it shows today while plenty of other models have been locked in (or close to it) for several days now. Even if it ends up going down EXACTLY like what the GFS showed at 12Z today, there is no logical way anyone could say it shouldn't be criticized or that it "won".

[84 Hour NAM]

Not sure if or how this matters, but does the Ukie have a 4D VAR type of assimilation?  I know the Euro and Canadian do.  Just that it seems interesting the 4D VAR solutions (global models) are really phasing the system and wrapping it up.  GFS is 3D VAR, and it's almost...but not quite...there, plus it's drier.  May just be coincidence, but just asking.

 

I believe HPC cited that as a reason for the differing solutions

[Ji]

Ukmet has ~.55 for DC from 6z to 12z Thursday...so it is juiced

that 1:00 am to 7am is going to make or break our storm tomorrow night 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

How much does dca get on the rgem before mixing

[EasternUSWX]

That's a keeper.

 

[Deck Pic]

that 1:00 am to 7am is going to make or break our storm tomorrow night 

 

I think we need to kill it from 10 to 3am...like 3-5"+...because who knows what happens after that....

[va_ghost]

definitely trending warmer

 

Crud.  The R/S line is wayyy to the NNW of RIC here.    

[DCAlexandria]

Isn't the Canadian bad with temps?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I think we need to kill it from 10 to 3am...like 3-5"+...because who knows what happens after that....

Yep, if we can do 4-6 before dawn Thursday the rest is all gravy

[Deck Pic]

UKmet starts us at like 8pm...not like GFS which has flurries for hours

[clskinsfan]

The GFS was so far away from a solution even remotely like the one it shows today while plenty of other models have been locked in (or close to it) for several days now. Even if it ends up going down EXACTLY like what the GFS showed at 12Z today, there is no logical way anyone could say it shouldn't be criticized or that it "won".

 

Very true. I guess I am saying it has shown a less amped solution for days and continues to do so. Where as the Euro has had basically the same solution since Friday. Either could fold at this point I guess.

[caviman2201]

We've been over the RGEM... can we stick to CMC discussion, please?

[Deck Pic]

Isn't the Canadian bad with temps?

 

yes...it has a warm bias

Yep, if we can do 4-6 before dawn Thursday the rest is all gravy

 

yup

[T. August]

Isn't the Canadian bad with temps?

I'm not very knowledgeable, but I think it runs a little on the warm side.

[cng885]

Crud. The R/S line is wayyy to the NNW of RIC here.

How far nw? Can't check anything right now.

[yoda]

48 is taking forever on the black and white maps... come on GGEM hurry up

 

Stuck at 36... Zwyts you have 48 yet?

[mappy]

12z NAM Cobb for Westminster:

 

.619 all snow 4z - 19z