February 12-13 Storm, Part III: Trilogy ends and then Obs thread soon!

[clskinsfan]

Temps actually look good throughout. Slightly colder like the Euro was last night. Its a crush job.

[Ji]

NAM is still a disaster but its getting better

[weathercoins]

Odd that the LWX point forecasts are calling for essentially nothing... I wonder when they'll update.  

 

For Columbia, MD:

 

forecast.JPG

 

 

The rain and snow bit is weird, but that isn't nothing IMO, they just haven't suggested any accumulations...

[mitchnick]

I guarantee you if you check soundings, NAM will have a warm layer around 925mb to our south so I'm OK with it just as modeled

NAM's a touch colder this run from 6Z, so that's good

[WxUSAF]

What about RIC - any sign of the central VA curse of warm air ruining the storms that tend to go north and only then dump all snow

Based on the upper air temps, it looks like RIC and points N/W stay all snow.  Nearly 2" of QPF northwest of RIC. 

[Bob Chill]

NAM precip. I'm sure high res will show more. 

 

[Kmlwx]

Odd that the LWX point forecasts are calling for essentially nothing... I wonder when they'll update.  

 

For Columbia, MD:

 

forecast.JPG

How is that showing nothing? They don't give accumulations at this range...

[Ji]

its  not closing the ull

[Deck Pic]

I guarantee you if you check soundings, NAM will have a warm layer around 925mb to our south so I'm OK with it just as modeled

 

The 925mb warm nose makes it 30-40 mi southeast of DC, but it may be warmer at 900mb or 950mb.....I'd much rather have column issues down there than an inversion layer up high...

[yoda]

925/950 get to around 0 (but stay on neg side... like -0.1) at DCA for a few hours early Thurs morning... but otherwise all good to go

 

I see Zwyts and I are on teh same page... I would say this is all snow at DC

[WxUSAF]

Storm's over by 18z on the NAM.  Pretty quick ~15hr storm.  

[MN Transplant]

Storm's over by 18z on the NAM.  Pretty quick ~15hr storm.  

 

Sunny and 35 by the late afternoon.  Drip, drip, drip. 

[stormtracker]

NAM is still a disaster but its getting better

Something is wrong with you.   I understand you're a QPF Queen, but we're an inch in a mostly if not all snow situation.  3 days ago, you would have been jumping for joy.   At some point, you have to be realistic.    I'd be happy with 10 to 12 inches of snow.   I realize you live in the neo-arctic, but even you should be satisfied. 

[va_ghost]

Based on the upper air temps, it looks like RIC and points N/W stay all snow.  Nearly 2" of QPF northwest of RIC. 

Many thanx for the info.  See, just getting our appetites whetted before slipping in a thin warm slice when it happens.  

[Ji]

Storm's over by 18z on the NAM.  Pretty quick ~15hr storm.  

yea..its not closing the upper level low like the euro and is phasing later. Not a good run for a HECS

[WxUSAF]

The 925mb warm nose makes it 30-40 mi southeast of DC, but it may be warmer at 900mb or 950mb.....I'd much rather have column issues down there than an inversion layer up high...

 

 

925/950 get to around 0 (but stay on neg side... like -0.1) at DCA early Thurs morning... but otherwise all good to go

Yeah, it's near freezing in the low levels, but it looks fine.  All snow on the NAM for the cities.  

[North Balti Zen]

Storm's over by 18z on the NAM.  Pretty quick ~15hr storm.  

 

NAM has been the quickest of the models with the speed of the storm I think, pretty consistently showing a 15 hour storm, with the other models showing it a slightly longer event. Not sure why. 

[Interstate]

Storm's over by 18z on the NAM.  Pretty quick ~15hr storm.  

 

Maybe so... but when was the last time we had a 15 hour storm here?

[mitchnick]

Storm's over by 18z on the NAM.  Pretty quick ~15hr storm.  

w/o a closed low,  nothing to slow it down (like a strong High to the north holding in place)

[clskinsfan]

I think Charlottesville ends up being in the sweet spot for this one. They will have the temps and they get mega banded for hours.

[Bob Chill]

its  not closing the ull

 

Mixed guidance there. GGEM, Euro, and I think UKMET do close 500. 6z RGEM is just about to do it @ 1am thurs. This is an important piece of the puzzle for a sick deform band. 

[JMU2004]

NAM is still a disaster but its getting better

 

How is a 10-12 inch snow a disaster? 

[tcutter]

didn't the euro show a "capture" last night?  is that why it shows a longer duration storm?

[welbane]

Sunny and 35 by the late afternoon.  Drip, drip, drip. 

 

That's my biggest fear for this storm. I don't want to see the sun on Thursday.

[Huffwx]

yea..its not closing the upper level low like the euro and is phasing later. Not a good run for a HECS

 

If your expectation is HECS< you'll be let down a lot. If I get a quick double digit storm, awesome. I'm planning an all nighter. 

 

With that, I like the Bullzeye to my east at this time!

[Ji]

If your expectation is HECS< you'll be let down a lot. If I get a quick double digit storm, awesome. I'm planning an all nighter. 

 

With that, I like the Bullzeye to my east at this time!

my expectation is the foreign models like the Euro will not bust 36 hours before a storm. lets see what Euro says today before we crown the NAM a great run

[chris87]

Mixed guidance there. GGEM, Euro, and I think UKMET do close 500. 6z RGEM is just about to do it @ 1am thurs. This is an important piece of the puzzle for a sick deform band. 

 

that's really the two paths -- the NAM/GFS which flirt with an earlier phase (remaining progressive, although the 12z nam is a better vort pass/tilt than previous runs) and never get a closed ull -- and the Euro/GGEM/UKMET -- something may change with the 12z globals but I'm confident it will have little to do with "better sampling"

[Ji]

What are you talking about?

it has .84 for JYO while the euro nearly has 2 inches. Its a disaster for me at least

 

1.17 for DCA when Euro has over 2 inches.

[Yorkpa25]

Everything looks great but 50 miles closer to the coast would be ideal.

[Kmlwx]

it has .84 for JYO while the euro nearly has 2 inches. Its a disaster for me at least

 

1.17 for DCA when Euro has over 2 inches.

 

You are something else sometimes. This is still a great storm on the NAM.