Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That's right. GFS at least agrees with EURO on Miller A. Let's work out the details later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The vortex over the maritimes slides ne as the storm approaches. It's one of the problems we are faced with for sure. Less confluence so the storm gets too close. It's a reasonable solution unfortunately but we're a long ways from knowing one way or another. our 50-50 vanishes and the storm takes an inland track..scooting out ahead of the trough...the solution is entirely reasonable too lol gmta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That's right. GFS at least agrees with EURO on Miller A. Let's work out the details later. that works out a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 mattmfm's diagram is a good tool.. saves a lot of model watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 lol gmta Not totally sure but if it were to close off at the base of the trough it would still be good hit with the ul energy. Several runs have shown bowling balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 welp, we lost this Dgex too on today's 18Z http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/dgexloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 our 50-50 vanishes and the storm takes an inland track..scooting out ahead of the trough...the solution is entirely reasonable too That's been my fear, without that a bad track. Its interesting that the eps from the euro keeps that vortex in place. My fears of the vortex and of having the trough go negative too quickly is why I went so wishy washy in my article. An ex-met friend e-mailed that maybe we'd know by next weekend whether we had a snowstorm or something else. At least we still have a storm. I think that track might still be big ice storm for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 that works out a lot I agree with you but I would rather have the models agree on a possible Miller A as opposed to a Miller A on EURO and a Miller B on GFS. Hasn't the GFS cleaned the EURO's clock this year at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 seasons do have patterns, thus a "memory" of sorts we need to ask the question "how many times have the models shown a eastern Canada vortex holding firm 5 days in advance only to lose it as we near the event?" I think the answer is once this year, if that...correct me if I'm wrong, but I can't think of one other than maybe 1/2 or 1/22, and I don't think either were progged 5 days out like this is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 mattmfm's diagram is a good tool.. saves a lot of model watching snow.jpg lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 according to the ensemble mean, what's keeping the vortex over eastern Canada is another vortex further east over northern England any met care to give an opinion on the chances of that set up being stable? http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=ecmwfens&MODELLTYP=2&BASE=-&VAR=z500&HH=120&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 EPS mean precip is about .8 - .9 or so. Snowfall (with flawed algorithm)is 5-6 on the means for most everybody. 32+/- members show decent snow. At 5 days it's bullish but we all know the risks here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 EPS mean precip is about .8 - .9 or so. Snowfall (with flawed algorithm)is 5-6 on the means for most everybody. 32+/- members show decent snow. At 5 days it's bullish but we all know the risks here. EPS control run is over 1" qpf all snow at least half is snow per accuwx maps for control run, though the slp maps they have sure look like all snow, so who knows.....maybe Weatherboy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Warm/wet..........Get your rubbers ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Warm/wet..........Get your rubbers ready. It is a faith issue for some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So is this threat over with no chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So is this threat over with no chance? winter cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So is this threat over with no chance? Wes' article says it best. Precipitation is coming this weekend. We'll figure out the rest later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 But there's no real chance right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 But there's no real chance right? Oh...come on! We've had amazing model agreement for this storm thus far. Tonight's GFS was wet, but look at any MEC/HEC and you'll find wet runs. I'd say there's a real chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 As I read it...there doesn't really seem like a realistic chance for a storm...am I reading that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 He's trolling, jums. Making fun if reactions to a bad run. My bigger flag is the caution Wes is tossing toward the setup. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 As I read it...there doesn't really seem like a realistic chance for a storm...am I reading that right? Yes, you are processing information correctly, with the exception of the responses being given to your questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So what we have here....is a failure to communicate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 Yes um boss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 well, if the snow storm doesn't work out, at least we can follow the tropical wave headed for Florida, likely to do untold levels of damage http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So what we have here....is a failure to communicate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 4, 2014 Share Posted February 4, 2014 So what we have here....is a failure to communicate? LMAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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