1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[CAPE]

The plumes definitely look nice. Some crazy outliers (30 inches for APG) but a really nice cluster between 3-5.

Yeah 3-5 seems like a good call at this point, with maybe a few 6 or 7 inch amounts.

[snow.]

I'm not even worried about the euro tbh. With a small system and quick deepening I think the short range models have it better resolved already. And the gfs trended right in. Gfs has been a rock for days showing this one being a decent possibility at something. I've done enough model watching this year to conclude the euro op has lost some luster.

Odds of the euro making a good move tonight are high. And it will be a gradual step as always.

 

agreed...Im honestly not concerned much either...but it is a good check on expectations...nothing is a lock to me

[HighStakes]

that map makes no sense since the heaviest totals should be south and east of I95

temps are NOT an issue

I have noticed that the RPM model will often put a heavy band well to the north and west or north and east despite temps.

[Ian]

Just remember the CRAS showed it first.

[Bob Chill]

agreed...Im honestly not concerned much either...but it is a good check on expectations...nothing is a lock to me

At this point of 1,000 days of disappointment and despair in our weird hobby....locks only happen after I'm done shoveling

I think the upside potential at this point is maybe 5 or 6 tops for a lucky few (not me). Downside appears an inch for all. Not a bad place to be. And its cold for once! Wow, that is something in itself.

[Ian]

I have noticed that the RPM model will often put a heavy band well to the north and west or north and east despite temps.

That's where heavy bands live.

[mitchnick]

seems a little slower on this run of the NAM

[ravensrule]

that map makes no sense since the heaviest totals should be south and east of I95

temps are NOT an issue

It is showing more snow east.

[mitchnick]

It is showing more snow east.

no, look up into PA and then NE

it's 6-8"+ heavy stripe while the tops S&E of I95 is 4-5"

[ravensrule]

no, look up into PA and then NE

it's 6-8"+ heavy stripe while the tops S&E of I95 is 4-5"

Oh you are right i did not even look there i only looked at the Eastern Shore. 

[Ian]

If I was making a map the hardest part would be where the 6-10" stripe goes.

[yoda]

NAM is meh... but 1-2 is better than nothing

[snow.]

NAM - south and drier

[mitchnick]

Oh you are right i did not even look there i only looked at the Eastern Shore. 

[DDweatherman]

Looks like it is going to be another pretty good hit based on the 42 hr.

It should, then washes out the h5 energy. Lets have matt say the NAM is laughable, because it has no consistency... and he's right. 

[PhineasC]

Just toss the NAM like we do when it looks bad.

[mitchnick]

It should, then washes out the h5 energy. Lets have matt say the NAM is laughable, because it has no consistency... and he's right. 

which makes no sense since there is nothing on its tale or near it like that last 2-3 ones

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_042_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=500_vort_ht&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[nj2va]

.2 knocking on DCA's door so NAM verbatim would be 2-3".  I'd definitely take it.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Probably upper limit of 15:1.

One of the few things overhyped more than ice around here are ratios. They are rarely as good as expected.

One caveat this time is that those upper air temps are really cold. I don't know why it matters though. It's the same amount of snow regardless of ratio. My 7" on 1/30/10 was 3 by the next morning.

[snow.]

Maybe the euro is right...and it will be a bit too far south

[usedtobe]

The vort still has a nice track.....the difference at this time range is noise.  Everyone get accumulating snow and probably a couple of inches....me probably more. 

[mitchnick]

The vort still has a nice track.....the difference at this time range is noise.  Everyone get accumulating snow and probably a couple of inches....me probably more. 

here here

[WinterWxLuvr]

NAM - south and drier

A bit south with the surface pressures for sure

[WinterWxLuvr]

The vort still has a nice track.....the difference at this time range is noise. Everyone get accumulating snow and probably a couple of inches....me probably more.

LOL, I like that last statement

[NorthArlington101]

You guys scared me with all the negative comments about the NAM. Good run with solid precip, with heavier stuff just a little south.

Since when did we become ungrateful with a run of 1-3 DC north and 2-4 south?

[mitchnick]

on 1/30/10 BWI measured 5" with .24" qpf while DCA had 6.2" on .33" qpf and Dulles was 4.5" on .27" qpf

I would expect similar ratios so 3-5" around the area NAM verbatim

[HM]

Sometimes being on the "QPF edge" isn't a bad thing in these setups with excellent divergence aloft and low-mid level convergence (in very cold temps, no less).

 

As for a "kicker," I'd be careful with saying there's no kicker. The player of interest is more at the 700mb layer which is well ahead of the 500mb vort max.

[Sparky]

I'll be satisfied with something that is sweepable.  You all can have this one on the coastal plain.

[snowfan]

I'll be happy with a nice 2-3" snowfall. It would put me over 10 inches for the season and then I'd feel like I had a half decent shot of reaching climo this year.

[mitchnick]

You guys scared me with all the negative comments about the NAM. Good run with solid precip, with heavier stuff just a little south.

Since when did we become ungrateful with a run of 1-3 DC north and 2-4 south?

since the 18z runs gave more