1/21 Clipper that's not a Clipper Thread

[CAPE]

Nice run for Salisbury and southern DE.

[PhineasC]

Sometimes being on the "QPF edge" isn't a bad thing in these setups with excellent divergence aloft and low-mid level convergence (in very cold temps, no less).

 

As for a "kicker," I'd be careful with saying there's no kicker. The player of interest is more at the 700mb layer which is well ahead of the 500mb vort max.

This is a more technical way of saying my usual catchphrase, "There will be a heavy band to the NW of where the models have the best QPF like always."

[PhineasC]

I'll be satisfied with something that is sweepable.  You all can have this one on the coastal plain.

LOL

 

I'm sure you'll be shocked when you wake up to 5 inches. 

[Sparky]

LOL

 

I'm sure you'll be shocked when you wake up to 5 inches. 

I just want to be able to sweep, not shovel.

[Ji]

6-8 for Salisbury

[mitchnick]

Sometimes being on the "QPF edge" isn't a bad thing in these setups with excellent divergence aloft and low-mid level convergence (in very cold temps, no less).

 

As for a "kicker," I'd be careful with saying there's no kicker. The player of interest is more at the 700mb layer which is well ahead of the 500mb vort max.

NAM had them more potent acting together the last run so hopefully this is just another NAM 24hr.+ hiccup

[Ji]

This is a wes storm... 4-6 inches. And dc breaks that dumb cwg streak

[mitchnick]

6-8 for Salisbury

my daughter can send me pics

problem is, she's supposed to be going back on Tuesday....looks like she may have to leave tomorrow   

[usedtobe]

This is a wes storm... 4-6 inches. And dc breaks that dumb cwg streak

Right now I do think DC will break the streak.   Wonder whether I'll think that tomorrow when I write my discussion. 

[HighStakes]

LOL

 

I'm sure you'll be shocked when you wake up to 5 inches. 

So far you look like you're in a good spot for this one.

[snowfan]

This is a wes storm... 4-6 inches. And dc breaks that dumb cwg streak

you gonna be okay out there in leesburg?

[aldie 22]

you gonna be okay out there in leesburg?

We will

[vinylfreak89]

the 18z and 00z NAM are very similar... noise... the reason it "washes out" faster is because its slower. minor timing differences. Nevertheless, still .1" + area wide.... which should be a solid 2-3"... anyone expecting more is silly

[nj2va]

the 18z and 00z NAM are very similar... noise... the reason it "washes out" faster is because its slower. minor timing differences. Nevertheless, still .1" + area wide.... which should be a solid 2-3"... anyone expecting more is silly

 

Not really.  While its not likely for DC to get more than 3", I don't think it can be written off yet.  S&E areas have a better shot at 3"+

[mitchnick]

the 18z and 00z NAM are very similar... noise... the reason it "washes out" faster is because its slower. minor timing differences. Nevertheless, still .1" + area wide.... which should be a solid 2-3"... anyone expecting more is silly

no one in here with any sense is "expecting" more, but we are certainly all hoping for more

[vinylfreak89]

Not really.  While its not likely for DC to get more than 3", I don't think it can be written off yet.  S&E areas have a better shot at 3"+

 

I was referring mostly to area wide amounts. Yes... S MD and Eastern shore could easily pick up 6+ if the timing comes together right

[vinylfreak89]

no one in here with any sense is "expecting" more, but we are certainly all hoping for more

 

lol why waste the energy... LR looks to be decent for something "big ticket" but thats going OT

[HM]

The fluffy nature to the snow/very cold temperatures and the wind will make for a good blowing snow setup post-storm.

[Sparky]

The fluffy nature to the snow/very cold temperatures and the wind will make for a good blowing snow setup post-storm.

that's all I want really not snow depth just roof and field blowing snow

[ravensrule]

The fluffy nature to the snow/very cold temperatures and the wind will make for a good blowing snow setup post-storm.

Thanks HM for stopping by with your insights they are greatly appreciated. We do not get those scenarios around here often so that would be great.

[needbiggerboat]

Please everyone lock up your natural gas and salt contracts before this attack of blowing and drifting cold snow.

[usedtobe]

Not really.  While its not likely for DC to get more than 3", I don't think it can be written off yet.  S&E areas have a better shot at 3"+

I agree,  unless the GFS cuts back a lot and the euro stays with it's 12Z solution.  It's foolish to write off the possibility of DC getting 3 inches.   The ratios are likely to be at least 15-1 maybe a little more than that.  

[Coach McGuirk]

00z NAM.  ALL SNOW
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_060_precip_p60.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

[NorthArlington101]

I keep hearing two different things on ratios, I've heard that it's one of the great myths, we never get good ratios, then I hear people saying 15-1 ratios are a good bet. Are ratios just hard to predict?

[PhineasC]

Weird to see Wes being bullish and some weenies being negative. 

[PhineasC]

I keep hearing two different things on ratios, I've heard that it's one of the great myths, we never get good ratios, then I hear people saying 15-1 ratios are a good bet. Are ratios just hard to predict?

15:1 isn't that outrageous and a good bet for this storm.

[clueless]

Will be good to see the eastern folks report snow.

[Martin]

00z NAM

[mitchnick]

I keep hearing two different things on ratios, I've heard that it's one of the great myths, we never get good ratios, then I hear people saying 15-1 ratios are a good bet. Are ratios just hard to predict?

look at my post on the last page of this thread

1/30/10 had very similar temps and ratios across the area were virtually 20-1

[NorthArlington101]

15:1 isn't that outrageous and a good bet for this storm.

Thanks! And one more weenie-question. Is this system a clipper, or more of a hybrid clipper with some coastal help?