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Winter storm 12/8-9 Observations/Nowcasting II


nj2va

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Seems like roads that were treated are wet + crunchy with patchy ice. I found a spot of my parking lot that wasn't treated. Oh boy.

 

The sidewalks are an absolute nightmare to walk on. Roads seems okay, but they really didn't good that great of a job with everything else. 

 

Stay safe driving tomorrow. 

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Getting close to the 30 mark now in Carney, MD. Freezing drizzle at moment with another small batch incoming. Last batch gave a nice layer of ice probably getting close to 1/8" mark. Took a slow walk around the neighborhood and took some pics with phone. Lots of bushes covered and drooping as well as small branches on trees. Looks very peaceful actually, except for the crunch and ice covered sidewalks. I stayed on grass to keep from killing myself

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Last obs of the night from me. 30.5 and light freezing rain. Going to be heading into a Fzdr and mist soon but could get some spotty light Freezing rain till the morning. Very nice ice accretion tonight and we still have power which is a win. That 700 mb transport was aimed right at DC and Northern suburbs for this second wave. Hope power outages down there don't get too bad. 

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It's time for a reality check here, someone said last night that at 4am we would warm above freezing. Well, I am back down to 29 degrees with steady freezing rain and a ton of ice on trees, cars and other stuff outside and branches are breaking all over.

 

Well Mets? Why am I still below freezing with tons of ice?

 

The firehose is still in full effect http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php

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Neighbor's tree branch just crashed to the ground, narrowly missing her car and the side of her garage.

 

This is getting ridiculous

 

 

 

 

 

December 8-9 2013 snow, sleet, and ice storm

 

The snow and sleet began around 9am on the morning of Sunday Dec 8 while I was still asleep. I woke briefly a few times between 8am and noon and looked outside and did not see much but did notice the road was white so I decided to not to risk driving to church.
 
Posts on American weather forums indicated snow and sleet began roughly around 9 to 930am in the Dale City region. Snow and sleet continued through the morning. By the time freezing rain (zr) started to mix in, at least an inch of snow and sleet had accumulated on the grass, roads and sidewalks. The temperatures remained in the upper 20s all day and frz rain mixed in with the snow and sleet and soaked the snow/sleetpack then cemented it in place as ice slowly accumulated.
 
The precipitation eased up as we moved into the afternoon but freezing drizzle continued to ice everything up.
 
By 9pm a second round of liquid precip moved in from the WSW. With the CAD in place and cold ground and existing snow/sleetpack, the rain froze on contact. This freezing rain continued steadily the rest of the evening and through the overnight hours. Temperatures were progged to rise above freezing at 9z, (4am EST) but stayed at 30 degrees into at least 5am. Fully a third of an inch of ice was recorded in Dale City by 5am. Branches were falling all over, I could hear them crack then the crash of icy branches hitting the ground. A large branch smashed into the ground just a foot from my neighbor's house and her car.
 
I slept after 5am Monday morning then woke up around noon, to 34 degrees and low overcast. Some of the ice had melted but much of it was still present. We had a 2 hour power outage.
 
We received an inch of snow and sleet then a third of an inch of ice accretion on top of the snow/sleet glacier.
 
 
From Dec 8 thru about the 10th we had 100 percent areal coverage. However, after that we had a few days with highs in the 40s that really blasted hell out of the south facing lawns and dropped our snow cover to about 50 percent. Then the rain on Dec 14 melted some more despite highs only around 38, then the overnight low that night only dropped to 33. Dec 15 brought a high of 48 that just roasted most of the remaining snowpack, leaving only 5 percent barely hanging on on the north side of homes, in the woods, and on typically north facing hills. The snowpiles that were plowed up are doing fine for now, they are 2-3 feet tall.
 
We have a 4-6 day warmup incoming, I'll post about the effects of that warmup on the snow piles later.
 
The snow whitened the ground by about 11am Sunday Dec 8. Therefore, 11am Monday Dec 16 is 8 days of snow cover. However, Sunday Dec 15 we only had about 7 percent areal coverage and Monday Dec 16 we only had about 2 percent areal coverage. On Dec 16 patches of snow can only be found in the woods and to the north of any sunlight blocking building or on the north side of hills.
 
Dec 17 I could still find small patches of snow in the woods and to the north of trees and houses. However I will probably stop at 9 days of snow cover because snowpack coverage here is now less than 1 percent. I will merely make notes about any remaining snow on the ground and about piles. There are still quite a few snow piles around Dale City as of Dec 17, some of which are three feet tall. There are smaller piles of snow/sleet around residences where people shoveled their walks. The 50 degree weather in a couple of days should melt these piles in short order.
 
We received a surprise half inch of heavy wet snow early on the morning of Dec 18. A snow band dropped a half inch of new snow in 40 minutes. The snow accumulated on all surfaces due to 32 degree weather and heavy snow rates. Even after melting later on Dec 18, we still had snow cover on the north facing lawns and on the north sides of houses and even some left on bushes! This means that I will increment the snow cover total days to 10 today and to 11 tomorrow morning at 10am.
 
Back on Dec 8 when we first got accumulations, the snow first started to accumulate at 10am that morning, This is why the total days of snow cover counter gets incremented at or after 10am every morning we still have snowpack.
 
 
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We must of had a QPF bust last night west of dc

this was the 0Z NAM qpf total for 24 hrs ending 6z Tuesday

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_030_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

6Z NAM ending Tuesday 6Z,,,,it definitely dried out and shifted things south

I hope this doesn't bode poorly for tomorrow's event

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_030_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

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