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Wednesday Soaker Discussing


CT Rain

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I'm not buying the wintry weather tonight--at least not to the level BOX has in their AFD (first bolded).

 

MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH BENEATH WEAK-LAYER FORCING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING OF TRANSITION. ANOTHER BOUT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SAME LOCALES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THE FOCUS OF WHICH WILL BE ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN

 

WRT Mitch--the AFD's talking the west slopes on the CAA.  He may not be high enough, but  won't get downslopes there.  Maybe I'm placing him in the wrong area?? (second bolded)

 

It'll be interesting to see if any of that stuff in NE PA can move toward us during the day today. The 850 mb 0° C line doesn't come through here until 7-8 PM, so if we can get some precip between now and then it may very well be frozen.

 

WRT the backside, I'm not thinking much more than a coating to an inch for west slope locations. Most of the moisture lifts out before the CAA can really get going. I'll be gone by that point anyway as I'm flying out of BDL tomorrow morning for a 1,200 mile turkey trot.

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Yeah, The SV maps don't have that much for totals, I think allsnow stated the same

yeah and i'm not really sure why either. i don't think the 40km nam is still available (as opposed to the 12km nam) so i don't believe that would be the issue. i'm not sure if it's a product of the way they smooth out their data on SV. i've noticed the same with some of the wind products they have...almost as though they decrease their own "resolution" 

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yeah and i'm not really sure why either. i don't think the 40km nam is still available (as opposed to the 12km nam) so i don't believe that would be the issue. i'm not sure if it's a product of the way they smooth out their data on SV. i've noticed the same with some of the wind products they have...almost as though they decrease their own "resolution" 

 

I was looking at the op, Yeah, Even their 4km high res does not show those totals which is odd

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Awesome. I am right there in the purple. That "X" is just above where Steve works.

I suppose I should set up a video feed from my basement so everyone can enjoy and laugh at the flooding.

This is all I DON'T need this year.

:facepalm:

probably overdone Garth, lots of runoff too, I would not expect any ground water level issues.
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In the end the low ends up staying on the coastal plain I'd say...despite the runs that wanted to take it up over VT etc.  But its a strung out thing until it finally consolidates further  north so the exact track of surface low pressure may not be that relevant except to say who gtes ludicrously mild versus cold clammy rain.

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It'll be interesting to see if any of that stuff in NE PA can move toward us during the day today. The 850 mb 0° C line doesn't come through here until 7-8 PM, so if we can get some precip between now and then it may very well be frozen.

 

WRT the backside, I'm not thinking much more than a coating to an inch for west slope locations. Most of the moisture lifts out before the CAA can really get going. I'll be gone by that point anyway as I'm flying out of BDL tomorrow morning for a 1,200 mile turkey trot.

 

Bumpity bump.

 

The 12km NAM on ewall has big totals in RI

 

f48.gif

 

Nice--that's a pretty big shift from the max accompanied by a reduction out here.  It'll be interesting if that theme is echoed by the other models.

 

27.9/24

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