ineedsnow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20131125&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=CEF&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=41.840667764716926&mLON=-73.290211328125&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Very impressive winds coming in with this system. Any amount of mixing will bring down some serious wind gusts. Only problem is that we have like 0 mixing. Convection is going to be the best chance at bringing those winds down. NAM is advertising 10 m winds gusts north of 50 kts for the eastern half of SNE. 0Z nam not really backing down with the 925mb winds, still 80+knots winds just off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Any ice still possible? (Imby but it has been mentioned) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I wonder if you get lucky with this tonight and tomorrow morning? .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... ...BURST OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE MORNING RUSH HOUR TUESDAY... AS OF 650 PM EST...HAVE MADE SOME MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST RUC13/HRRR AND 21Z/SREF SUITE INDICATE A BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION...DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z TONIGHT...AND LINGERING UNTIL 13Z-15Z/TUESDAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST...IN ADVANCE OF THE INCOMING CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AS STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT INTERACTS WITH THE INCOMING MID LEVEL MOISTURE...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK...AND LINGER INTO MID MORNING TUESDAY. THE ONLY QUESTION IS...HOW QUICKLY WITH THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE TO ALLOW PRECIP TO REACH THE GROUND. AT THIS TIME...BASED HEAVILY ON RUC/HRRR OUTPUT...HAVE ADDED LIKELY POPS TO MUCH OF THE CAPITAL REGION/MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY/BERKSHIRES/EASTERN CATSKILL REGIONS...WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. SNOWFALL ACCUMS WILL GENERALLY BE A DUSTING TO AN INCH...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS JUST N OF THE MOHAWK RIVER...ESP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SARATOGA CO...WHERE AROUND AN INCH IS EXPECTED...AND ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TACONICS AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES...WHERE 1-3 INCHES COULD OCCUR. Huh. I wonder" haven't looked at anything and I'm hitting the hay. Ill see if there's any surprise later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Huh. I wonder" haven't looked at anything and I'm hitting the hay. Ill see if there's any surprise later on. We mentioned that earlier, some areas could get some light WAA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 We mentioned that earlier, some areas could get some light WAA snow. florida to woodford state park FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 We mentioned that earlier, some areas could get some light WAA snow. Yeah for those that missed it earlier today: There is also actually some weak lift that comes through tomorrow morning from the mid-level WAA...its pretty dry but it might be enough for some light snow or flurries...esp western areas. If it starts as ice in those hills tomorrow night, I think it wouldn't last more than a couple hours...and it would be marginal. Yeah nothing big, but seemed like the usual Suspects could for a brief time. I saw that lift. Will have to watch that for people like MPM etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 HRRR has some stuff even into ctrl MA. Wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 The surface winds on the 00z NAM are insane for eastern areas. Close to hurricane force just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 HRRR has some stuff even into ctrl MA. Makes my weenie smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Snowing lightly, ground whitened. I'll enjoy it while I can. I can't believe how few posts were made last night. I guess no one is really caring about our dry-busting rains coming up. 24.4/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Light snow started as i was on my last mile heading home. Certainly a surprise 27.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Light snow started as i was on my last mile heading home. Certainly a surprise 27.9 Models had that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 light snow has started here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 BOX AFD is much more bullish on the prospects of wintry mix tonight up this way than I ever would be. I'll be pleasantly surprised even if it is a bootleg .5-1" before it's immediately washed away. I am hopeful that a few flakes on the backside will whiten the ground for Thursday. Most likely less extensive/expansive than this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 saw a pic from North Cannan, looked like close to 1" on the state road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I'm thinking Mitch might well come out as the winner in SNE when all is said and done tomorrow night. 23.9/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 25f and snow. Wasnt expecting the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Models had that as well. I would hope so! Some very light snow here and 29°. I'm wondering if there are some initial hydro issues tomorrow because it's been so dry and the top layer of the ground is pretty frozen after the past couple of days. I'm sure that won't hold but I suspect that there could be some spots with higher run off and ponding initially under some heavier echos. Just a thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Really it's just flurries here. Still a nice surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I'm thinking Mitch might well come out as the winner in SNE when all is said and done tomorrow night. 23.9/21 We told you it may be some ice and even a few flakes. LOL. Mitch may get downsloped if winds turn east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 We told you it may be some ice and even a few flakes. LOL. Mitch may get downsloped if winds turn east. I'm not buying the wintry weather tonight--at least not to the level BOX has in their AFD (first bolded). MAINLY FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS INTO SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH BENEATH WEAK-LAYER FORCING BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN. SOMEWHAT OF A CHALLENGE TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING OF TRANSITION. ANOTHER BOUT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE SAME LOCALES. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THE FOCUS OF WHICH WILL BE ALONG WESTERN SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN WRT Mitch--the AFD's talking the west slopes on the CAA. He may not be high enough, but won't get downslopes there. Maybe I'm placing him in the wrong area?? (second bolded) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JJBASHB Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Steady light snow in Fitchburg. ~0.25" on all surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 28F Light Snow. Officially my first snow on snow event of the season. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Light snow and roads slightly covered in Scarborough, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 High wind watches converted to advisories....guess the NAM was smoking the funny stuff yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 28F Light Snow. Officially my first snow on snow event of the season. lol Snow begets snowFirst commute behind sander on Rte 68 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 I'm not sure why everyone is surprised by the snow this morning. Didn't Will and maybe Scott discuss this possibility yesterday?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 28F Light Snow. Officially my first snow on snow event of the season. lol You're developing your pack. High wind watches converted to advisories....guess the NAM was smoking the funny stuff yesterday The AFD addresses this nicely. Cool temps--perhaps will aid with the notion of wintry conditions at the start of the storm. 23.9/22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted November 26, 2013 Share Posted November 26, 2013 Pushing measurable here. Heavy coating at least and still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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