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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

small typo nbd

LOL true when you consider even this trough event coming up. In reality the models whiffed inside of 24-36.

I really like what the NAM does with the trough it just conventiently misses everyone including the ME coast by like 5 miles. Sure there's decent snows up in Maine/NH/VT but it misses being a modest event by a couple of squib punts.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
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All I know is I have been looking at these medium range periods on the models since about 1994. I can't say they are any more accurate today than the mid 90's. :) It actually seems like we have more chaos now, but maybe partly due to having access to so many different models now.

I do like how the mets (and some non-mets) are able to see through the BS, know the trends, climo, tendencies, etc. and point out the fallicies of the models ahead of time.

Wisdom>computer models many times...

Christmas Eve/Day should be fun times on the computer - hopefully the 26th will be fun times in reality

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DomNH

DomNH

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I do like how the mets (and some non-mets) are able to see through the BS, know the trends, climo, tendencies, etc. and point out the fallicies of the models ahead of time.

Wisdom>computer models many times...

Christmas Eve/Day should be fun times on the computer - hopefully the 26th will be fun times in reality

"Go back to bed kids, before you open your presents, I've got to check the 00z Euro and 6z NAM!!!!"

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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No I just meant that there's pretty big changes even in the short term in how IT handles guidance which to me means anything longer term is in question. Same with the GFS. Not sure how steady the EC has been, still outside the range I care that much about any model...IE inside of about 84-96 I'll start to believe what they forecast.

I've had 100' of potential the last few years, I'm all potentialled out.

Dude I think we have had 100 inches of potential in one year that was never realized, miss the 95/96 type winters where any excuse to snow it did and there was little warning, this once a week big hit or miss stuff gets old.

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leesun

leesun

Posted
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It's partly because there were less models back then, but the superstorm of March 1993 was pegged days in advance, without all of this uncertainty. The january blizzard of 1997, the same thing. Too many models, too much information may not be the best thing. Back then, we used to rely mostly on the NGM. Some may laugh at that, but our forecasting has not improved by leaps and bounds since then!

All I know is I have been looking at these medium range periods on the models since about 1994. I can't say they are any more accurate today than the mid 90's. :) It actually seems like we have more chaos now, but maybe partly due to having access to so many different models now.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

the 84 hour NAM looks very similar to the 12z 96 hour ECM.

Indeed it does. Looks like it might be slightly less amped up, but thats a lot of extrapolation. The overall agreement is pretty good though. Definitely looks a lot more like the Euro vs the GFS

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