Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Not much I hate more than looking at GEM graphics, but that looks like another cc special to me.

Yeah but this early in the year with a storm that big coastal areas (down here) would struggle with temps.

Speakign of which very odd night tonight, temps 34-35 but the ground is flash freezing under clear skies. Just watched my neighbors dog take a dixie like you read about!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Since Kev has been fast asleep, with visions of njwx dancing through his head for about the last 4 hrs, I'll take his job:

this is is a really bad post / point you made

The weenie known as JI is asserting things Look "BAD" becuase he sees 1 thing and 1 thing only...

Unless there is massive 3.00" of liquid over his back yard where his Momma moomy and Dadda live it is a " diasater"

the Ggem looks Relatively good

I am NOT worried about the Precip shield at all. 90% of the time

a southern Gulf low coming up the coast passing 50- 100 miles east of HATTERAS Is going to have significant precip with it

[40/70 Benchmark]

It still gives warning criteria back to ORH...so while CC would jackpot, its not exactly a terrible solution for us.

I think it blows and I hate to say it, but I expect a moderate soloution to ultimately prevail.

[NorEastermass128]

First call with a gun to my weenie:

3-8" of snow for KGAY.

Way too early for first calls. Maybe by Thursday night...

FINAL CALL FOR TOMORROW NIGHT IMBY: 1-2"

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah but this early in the year with a storm that big coastal areas (down here) would struggle with temps.

There is no way on the face of God's green earth that the Cape would struggle with ptype issues on the GGEM setup. Maybe at the very onset (ala 12/26/04)...but they would get absolutely destroyed once the serious stuff came in.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Way too early for first calls. Maybe by Thursday night...

FINAL CALL FOR TOMORROW NIGHT IMBY: 1-2"

I don't care what you think; it's never too early when you're not a pro and merely a "Joe Sh**theragman......no one cares what I think, or you for that matter, so fire away.

[NorEastermass128]

Can't stay up...work early in the AM. Then gotta start my Christmas shopping.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO will come east.

[NorEastermass128]

I don't care what you think; it's never too early when you're nor a pro and merely a "Joe Sh**theragman......no one cares what I think, or you for that matter, so fire away.

EURO will come east.

Alright...no argument there. What do you think for our area tomorrow. Inch or two?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

There is no way on the face of God's green earth that the Cape would struggle with ptype issues on the GGEM setup. Maybe at the very onset (ala 12/26/04)...but they would get absolutely destroyed once the serious stuff came in.

Yeah I didnt look that closely - its the GGEM it has as much a chance of verifying as the 2012 prophecies.

[ROOSTA]

EURO will come east.

Undoubtable but how far? I'm thinkin we get nailed period!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Alright...no argument there. What do you think for our area tomorrow. Inch or two?

Haven't a clue; didn't know it was gonna snow.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Undoubtable but how far? I'm thinkin we get nailed period!

Scraper.

[ORH_wxman]

Scraper.

Most of us are more worried about that than too far west. DT and I discussed that a bit on the radio show...the ridge is pretty far east, so that combined with blocked Atlantic will make something well west almost impossible.

[ROOSTA]

Scraper.

Ridge in W,building with each run, digging trof with southern energy slowing. I think it may ultimately turn in favor to a more amped sol.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Scraper.

LOL.

[centralmass]

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It's the GGEM but that looks like it's forecasting some mix/rain down here.

[ORH_wxman]

It's the GGEM but that looks like it's forecasting some mix/rain down here.

Most models are too warm this time of year down there and around the Cape...its like when the models that were bringing the CCB back into the Cape for this last system but as a 38-40F rainstorm and some argued thats why it wouldn't be good on the Cape...while it started off as rain very early, it quickly went to heavy snow once the serious stuff came in.

Scott (Coastalwx) and I were talking about it earlier today on the phone. We see the models put out these sfc temps way too warm when the wet bulb zero height it like 200 feet aloft. That's when its much better to use experience and the soundings vs the raw model output.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

One of the things being lost is the amount of AMDAR data not going into some of the modeling right now. People forget thousands of flights have been cancelled and surely the lack of that data is having some effect or influence.

So before anyone goes ape if the EC moves one way or the other tonight remember it's likely missing some numbers.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Most models are too warm this time of year down there and around the Cape...its like when the models that were bringing the CCB back into the Cape for this last system but as a 38-40F rainstorm and some argued thats why it wouldn't be good on the Cape...while it started off as rain very early, it quickly went to heavy snow once the serious stuff came in.

Scott (Coastalwx) and I were talking about it earlier today on the phone. We see the models put out these sfc temps way too warm when the wet bulb zero height it like 200 feet aloft. That's when its much better to use experience and the soundings vs the raw model output.

Will I was just busting, the GGEM graphics are horrid. I'm not sure it's ever had me in the snow even in the heart of winter!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/workshops/2009/MOS_12/Presentations/Klink.pdf

Think that somewhere near 2500 flights were held out of frankfurt alone. This has been going on for some time. Whatever role it may play the lack of AMDAR data out east and in the Atlantic can certainly wreak some problems.

[radarman]

Most of us are more worried about that than too far west. DT and I discussed that a bit on the radio show...the ridge is pretty far east, so that combined with blocked Atlantic will make something well west almost impossible.

You said it. GFS really struggling to induce any ridging as it tries to take the s/w negative. Ocean doesn't seem to want to put up a fight, and the result is a lot of easterly motion.

I'd sign for 2" right now just to get off the schneid.

[nzucker]

Most models are too warm this time of year down there and around the Cape...its like when the models that were bringing the CCB back into the Cape for this last system but as a 38-40F rainstorm and some argued thats why it wouldn't be good on the Cape...while it started off as rain very early, it quickly went to heavy snow once the serious stuff came in.

Scott (Coastalwx) and I were talking about it earlier today on the phone. We see the models put out these sfc temps way too warm when the wet bulb zero height it like 200 feet aloft. That's when its much better to use experience and the soundings vs the raw model output.

Yeah I definitely read too much into surface temperatures at the onset of the event and the wind direction instead of considering the colder 850s and the heavy dynamics for the Cape in this past ocean storm. I've just starting reading some of the more serious literature on CCB phenomena so I guess that's helping me understand some of the factors at play in being more aggressive for the Cape in this scenario. Of course most forecasts from TV were in the low range and I know Skier and I went with 2-4" and 1-3" which busted horribly. I have been conservative lately but I think the Cape would get a great hit on the XMAS storm showed by GGEM and many of the other easterly models; they're probably in better shape than the rest of us if the H5 capture occurs a smidge too late and the surface low has already escaped the major cities.

I am really a bit frustrated though...initially it looked as if we'd all receive ample overrunning precipitation regardless of the coastal formation/phase with a bowling ball type southern system, and now it seems as if once again we're relying on a very fragile phase being the difference between nothing and a snowstorm. The extreme -NAO/-AO block is depriving us of the normal moderate events New England and NYC's NW suburbs would see in a La Niña like the SW flow events and clippers...instead we are playing the high risk/high reward game as we battle suppression from the overwhelming block and mediocre Pacific.

[ORH_wxman]

Will I was just busting, the GGEM graphics are horrid. I'm not sure it's ever had me in the snow even in the heart of winter!

I wasn't actually implying you were thinking it was true...just sort of throwing that post out there for others to see....model sfc temps are probably the single worst parameter on them for verification outside of qpf.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I definitely read too much into surface temperatures at the onset of the event and the wind direction instead of considering the colder 850s and the heavy dynamics for the Cape in this past ocean storm. I've just starting reading some of the more serious literature on CCB phenomena so I guess that's helping me understand some of the factors at play in being more aggressive for the Cape in this scenario. Of course most forecasts from TV were in the low range and I know Skier and I went with 2-4" and 1-3" which busted horribly. I have been conservative lately but I think the Cape would get a great hit on the XMAS storm showed by GGEM and many of the other easterly models; they're probably in better shape than the rest of us if the H5 capture occurs a smidge too late and the surface low has already escaped the major cities.

I am really a bit frustrated though...initially it looked as if we'd all receive ample overrunning precipitation regardless of the coastal formation/phase with a bowling ball type southern system, and now it seems as if once again we're relying on a very fragile phase being the difference between nothing and a snowstorm. The extreme -NAO/-AO block is depriving us of the normal moderate events New England and NYC's NW suburbs would see in a La Niña like the SW flow events and clippers...instead we are playing the high risk/high reward game as we battle suppression from the overwhelming block and mediocre Pacific.

Well I think its definitely good you are reading up on CCB and TROWAL type features. Look at model soundings too...they are usually a heck of a lot more useful than the sfc temp output.

When I saw the wet bulb zero height literally just overhead on the Cape with 40F surface temps and a huge CCB trying to back in on some of those runs, that was immediately a red flag. That screams 32F snow...and the Cape even got lower than that with many spots getting into the 29-31F range.

When there is significant cold air aloft just off the deck, you have to be worried. It wasn't a typical torching wind for the Cape either, so that's another thing to look at. A N and NNW wind on the Cape with a CCB will almost always be snow regardless of what models say unless its just too warm aloft.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I wasn't actually implying you were thinking it was true...just sort of throwing that post out there for others to see....model sfc temps are probably the single worst parameter on them for verification outside of qpf.

Ghosts of Christmas' past here. I forget the last El Nino year but it seemed like leaving the car running for an extra minute could turn me to rain here.

In reality the 45 degree water effect is overstated. It's snowed a bunch of times in the last few years early to hammer home the point.

Take a look at the AMDAR stuff, interested to hear the consensus. If the EC chokes the chicken on this one/the volatility over the last week or so...can it be partially explained by missing data?

[weatherwiz]

What's going to dictate where exactly that ridge in the west sets up...(where the ridge axis is)? Will the strength of the PNA be the biggest factor?

[Clinch Leatherwood]

22k out of roughly 45k flights that the EC uses as part of the AMDAR network were cancelled on 12/20 alone.

[Boston-winter08]

Is the EURO rolling?