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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

My "congrats" comment is the same that is issued on any model run by most people on the board in reference to who's getting jack-potted on a run, not at T-zero. I would think people realize that whenever they see someone saying "congrats".

I also see this as one that can come to fruition. I think my posts were reflecting what I think needs to take place in order to make that possible. So, if anything, my posts are not hitching on the model as deterministic. Do they respond to what the run shows? Yes. Am I disappointed when they reduce the historic to less? Absolutely.

I don't see anything wrong with applying my utterly rudimentary knowledge of things to suggest what needs to happen. As it's currently depicted, I see it heading too far SE. Those with a better understanding of things may certainly poke holes in my reasoning or have reasoning that says the southern system will not be as far south as it is. I hope they can do both. But, I don't think I should be rebuked for offering a dispassionate take on things.

Pretty much only the GFS, no? I thought other guidance was much closer.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

My "congrats" comment is the same that is issued on any model run by most people on the board in reference to who's getting jack-potted on a run, not at T-zero. I would think people realize that whenever they see someone saying "congrats".

I also see this as one that can come to fruition. I think my posts were reflecting what I think needs to take place in order to make that possible. So, if anything, my posts are not hitching on the model as deterministic. Do they respond to what the run shows? Yes. Are they disappointing when they reduce historic to less? Absolutely.

I don't see anything wrong with applying my utterly rudimentary knowledge of things to suggest what needs to happen. As it's currently depicted, I see it heading too far SE. Those with a better understanding of things may certainly poke holes in my reasoning or have reasoning that says the southern system will not be as far south as it is. I hope they can do both. But, I don't think I should be rebuked for offering a dispassionate take on things.

Your right, no worries. Time for me to play in the snow and cold. I'm not putting much stock in anything before Friday morning. Lots of ingredients on the table as of now and that's about all one can say with any certainty. This set up is the best look we've had in a while but Ma Nature is fickle. Time will tell. Have fun. Think Snow.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Ok everyone just give up and move on then. I'll stay the course

LOL, I'm with you. This is close to offering up something we've been salivating for. It's tough to stomach the oscillations wrt model solutions but for me the fact that the EURO has had a deep cyclone indicated for many runs is as positive a sign as one could hope for given the time range. I'm watching this for the windshield wiper effect. Swinging left, Swinging right. This is a good time for it to swing a bit right. Still feel like a very positive outcome has a 50/50 chance, perhaps even better.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

LOL, I'm with you. This is close to offering up something we've been salivating for. It's tough to stomach the oscillations wrt model solutions but for me the fact that the EURO has had a deep cyclone indicated for many runs is as positive a sign as one could hope for given the time range. I'm watching this for the windshield wiper effect. Swinging left, Swinging right. This is a good time for it to swing a bit right. Still feel like a very positive outcome has a 50/50 chance, perhaps even better.

I just hate the woe is me posts..and people ruling out the storm. The best model in the world has been crushing us for like 4 days in a row now. Until we lose that signal there's no reason tothink anything but that snow is coming

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The troubling thing I see is that the 00z euro ensembles seem a little east with the ridge and weaker with the northern stream as compared to 12z. This is causing the eastward shift on the runs. It's not the 50/50 low or anything like that. Is it right...who knows, but I don't like seeing that.

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COPO

COPO

Posted
Posted

I just hate the woe is me posts..and people ruling out the storm. The best model in the world has been crushing us for like 4 days in a row now. Until we lose that signal there's no reason tothink anything but that snow is coming

Would this be the same model that was east with the last storm? Then came big time west ? Then went OTS? I trust what its saying...:whistle:

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Here's ALY's AFD. I think it puts my comments into the simpler statement of it being a Miller A. Don't hese typically (or at least more often than not) screw the interior due to the reasons I stated? Let it ride the coast, but have it come off by coming across GA and not FL. Will make a HUGE difference.

The OP tracks across FL (GFS and EC), and most ENS (GFS and EC) tracking too far east do not lend me confidence in interior snows.

ALL THIS PUT TOGETHER INDICATES A SOMEWHAT LOW PROBABILITY OUTCOME

FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. A FEW FACTORS THAT MOST GUIDANCE IS IN

AGREEMENT ON IS A LATER SHIFT IN TIMING RESULTING IN PUSHING THE

POTENTIAL STORM BACK FURTHER TO THE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY

TIME-FRAME. THE LATER TIMING IS LIKELY A RESULT OF ANOTHER

FACTOR...WHICH IS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE A MILLER TYPE-A

STORM. THIS MEANS IT ORIGINATES NEAR THE GULF COAST AND TRACKS

NORTHEAST ALONG MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM IS FAVORED BY A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS

THE APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST CONUS...AND MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN

GENERAL.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

I just hate the woe is me posts..and people ruling out the storm. The best model in the world has been crushing us for like 4 days in a row now. Until we lose that signal there's no reason tothink anything but that snow is coming

Yeah, I think it's the easy thing to do. " It's not going to snow, it never does." Drives me crazy. I've been spending less time on here during the run ups as the steady drumbeat of pessimism is a drag. What I see here is the tantalizing possibility of a stalled/slowmoving gale in the perfect position to slam us. Will it happen? who knows but the fact that the Euro has been consistent with the idea of the formation of a formidable storm is enough for me at this juncture. As will always be the case for us the exact track will determine the final outcome. To throw your hands up at this early stage and say "This one is OTS because the last one was." to me is baffling. The reality is we've had storms the last 2 weekends, this will be the third. The way I see it the first was wide left, the second was wide right and tyhere is no reason this one can't split the uprights for the game winning field goal. Sh*t, now I'm late. Fight the good fight Rev.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

That would be an amazing screwing over the course of the past year.....MA 3 or 4 times......NYC once, you once, W MA and E NY twice, down east ME once and now maybe CC twice.

Throw in the upslope and LE circle jerks and I'm on an island of FU. :lol:

Haha that would be brutal and this is one of the funniest posts from last night...

I still really like your location, Ray for this one. I agree that the further east you are, the better. The one that might be on an island of FU is Ryan/Wiz/Blizz, along with the CT Valley Folks... that area of central CT up into central/western MA might take the shaft on this one again while coastal MA gets solid snows.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Because the gist of 90% of the posters here since last night was that they are giving up because the GFS is OTS ..so only Phil gets a snowstorm

The EC also has the southern low trekking too far south. If that plays out, I think we'll see the system bombing out too far south and then heading east creating a disappointing storm for the interior northeast. I can't see the EC ensembles so I can only respond to what's been presented here (which is more recent than the hpc write up). Of course we're early. I for one am NOT writing this off. Pointing out what needs to happen (have southern low track further north) is all I'm doing.

Kevin--you have frequently said it's a nina year, they will always come NW. I ithink for that too happen, the above situation would need to take place. I don't think there's anything inconsistent with what I've laid out with your blanket claim of things trending NW. I really don't. I'm applying a "what needs to happen" to allow your statement come to pass.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Haha that would be brutal and this is one of the funniest posts from last night...

I still really like your location, Ray for this one. I agree that the further east you are, the better. The one that might be on an island of FU is Ryan/Wiz/Blizz, along with the CT Valley Folks... that area of central CT up into central/western MA might take the shaft on this one again while coastal MA gets solid snows.

I don't live in Central CT

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Even your negativity today has been troubling

I'm just trolling...although the warm up is possible.

We're 5 days or so out. Anything is possible, but I feel the 00z euro op is too wound up and the gfs may be too far ots. To see the euro op that much farther west of the ensembles is troubling. Ensembles are usually going to be se of the op anyways, but there is a pretty big difference and I don't like that. We'll see what 12z does, but I'm not ruling out the storm..just saying how it looks. I know how quick things can change.

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COPO

COPO

Posted
Posted

BOX has eliminated the accumulation of an inch from tonight's forecasts for God's country. Is that postive enough for you???

(j/k, kevin, though tthey did eliminate it).

awww don't give up yet. 22news has you in for a T-2" and the CRV with 0....:arrowhead:

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rivers

rivers

Posted
Posted

Without some positive posts today this thread is gonna be unreadable

I agree, when my friends call asking questions about the storm I tell them this is whats going on this board of negative confusion

1 first few days look good,everyone is happy

2 The flip flopping begins a few days before storm,then the ax smiley heads icons come out :axe:

3 the realization of the eventual outcome sinks in and questioning of why the computers lost the storm 2 days out sets in :(

Im not an expert in weather ,but a weather psychic and also do weather therapy for people who cant handle the loss of a storm.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

From BOX

CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS

POINT...AS WE ARE AT LEAST FOUR DAYS AWAY FROM THE POTENTIAL EVENT.

THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE

OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY

TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND.

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