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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Ghosts of Christmas' past here. I forget the last El Nino year but it seemed like leaving the car running for an extra minute could turn me to rain here.

In reality the 45 degree water effect is overstated. It's snowed a bunch of times in the last few years early to hammer home the point.

Take a look at the AMDAR stuff, interested to hear the consensus. If the EC chokes the chicken on this one/the volatility over the last week or so...can it be partially explained by missing data?

If we don't get a big hit from this one, it would be hard to blame the models for anything considering how far out we are...now if the Euro hold steadfast for another 2 or 3 runs and then we fail, then you can start calling out busts. There's a lot of important features over data sparse regions...satellite data is better than it used to be, but I think when both parts are still in crappy data regions, it probably amplifies the effect a bit more.

As for the SSTs, yeah the argument is often overstated. If you get a big CCB with sfc winds out of the N, then it really doesn't matter. Obviously you have a bit more margin for error when the SSTs are lower, but its not usually a huge deal.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

Well I think its definitely good you are reading up on CCB and TROWAL type features. Look at model soundings too...they are usually a heck of a lot more useful than the sfc temp output.

When I saw the wet bulb zero height literally just overhead on the Cape with 40F surface temps and a huge CCB trying to back in on some of those runs, that was immediately a red flag. That screams 32F snow...and the Cape even got lower than that with many spots getting into the 29-31F range.

When there is significant cold air aloft just off the deck, you have to be worried. It wasn't a typical torching wind for the Cape either, so that's another thing to look at. A N and NNW wind on the Cape with a CCB will almost always be snow regardless of what models say unless its just too warm aloft.

I just thought the Cape would have trouble accumulating since a lot of the stations started out with -RN at like 37/38F which seems a touch too warm for a major hit. They also started the storm with NE winds gusting into the 20s which I believed would be the kiss of death, but as the wind backed towards the NNW temperatures really dropped. We also cannot doubt how cold of an airmass we have had this December in terms of 850mb temperature anomalies, the ground being completely frozen, having semblance of high pressure to the north, etc...all in favor of a snowier solution. I cannot believe that ponds and streams in Westchester are frozen solid at this early juncture in the winter. I do think people have been a bit harsh on me though regarding the last storm as I did have the general idea of a grazer/miss nailed pretty far out against what models were showing; I just didn't feel this was the type of storm to be bullish on because it had so many moving parts and it didn't look to have quite the ridge axis out west that deals PHL-NYC a huge snowstorm, definitely not like a 2/06 type of event. The models seem to be having overamplification problems lately with every system being a coastal bomb.

I am similar worried about the next storm; it's much closer to a hit but we still have to worry about the surface low escaping east and developing another grazer/ocean storm. I don't like how the GFS is keying in on a large separation between the southern stream and the potent shortwave near Churchill, Manitoba...there's a timing issue there that needs to be addressed before we can get a phase early enough in the game. The heights don't look very high in the Atlantic due to the extremely strong 50/50 low so we need a rapid amplification of the trough to ensure an H5 capture before it's just a threat for Cape Cod and the Canadian Maritimes. I definitely am not as confident as I was a couple days ago when the stronger overrunning was the main feature of the system, seemed more like a PDII threat back then.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

If we don't get a big hit from this one, it would be hard to blame the models for anything considering how far out we are...now if the Euro hold steadfast for another 2 or 3 runs and then we fail, then you can start calling out busts. There's a lot of important features over data sparse regions...satellite data is better than it used to be, but I think when both parts are still in crappy data regions, it probably amplifies the effect a bit more.

As for the SSTs, yeah the argument is often overstated. If you get a big CCB with sfc winds out of the N, then it really doesn't matter. Obviously you have a bit more margin for error when the SSTs are lower, but its not usually a huge deal.

Will not so much re the hit, just the inconsistencies. They've all been kind of rough outside of a few days. Comparing the verification scores around this time to the same period after the iceland volcano groundings would be interesting.

More information, kind of kills the time here while we're waiting...

ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/97811.pdf

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Does the low look a little too far south to you, Will?

For a hit? Not really because I think its going to make a very violent turn to the left on the Euro...pretty damn good phasing going on at 108h. This should be the furthest west of the 00z suite...but I'm not sure its going to be as far west as 12z.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

For a hit? Not really because I think its going to make a very violent turn to the left on the Euro...pretty damn good phasing going on at 108h. This should be the furthest west of the 00z suite...but I'm not sure its going to be as far west as 12z.

984mb at 120 over HAT. Nice.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Actually the phase is so strong on this run, I'm not sure this couldn't be west of 12z...its very fast when it happens....extreme bombing low. It gets so phased, that its really getting cutoff from the main flow. It might have trouble gaining latitude.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Actually the phase is so strong on this run, I'm not sure this couldn't be west of 12z...its very fast when it happens....extreme bombing low. It gets so phased, that its really getting cutoff from the main flow. It might have trouble gaining latitude.

Yea, that is what I thought.....this run may not be as good for us.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Dec 1992-esque in the way it just stalls near Delmarva....its getting monster precip into SNE by 132h. But the coast might be having issues with BL because of wind direction.

Thanks for the update Will.

The last place I want to be is in the bullseye at this range. Nothing would make me happier than feet of snow in the MTs.

That said whatever the outcome, this is either a coup for the EC or it'll be yet another one we look back on when we say "remember the time the EC..."

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