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Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

I will say it now...its still early and I could be completely wrong...but this looks like another longitude storm. But I think its west of the last one. Still would like to be in BOS for this over ORH...but maybe my tune will change in 24-36 hours.

I think the longitude of NE will help in this...the ridge is very far east.

NAM looks good, I hear.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Euro ensembles are actually pretty far se. Maybe 150 miles or so se of the BM.

I think the op Ec is bogus. IMO it's a signal maybe that it's about to have a ggem freakout that it almost redevelops the low like the ggem did in the 12z. It wants to capture it totally but can't quite so it came up with the next best scenario. We should see some better consensus today at 12z but looking at the ens and 6zs I'm not buying it yet. Stil plenty of time

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Boy, what a change 12 hours makes.

For mby, I've gone from an epic blizzard on the 12z EC to what I think might still be a warning event (can't reallly tell how the qpf is here) on the 00z EC. I have EC ensembles that are painting an even gloomoier picture, and I have a GFS that's still a fish storm (though a couple ens memebers have a nice hit). I fear I am both latitudinally and longitudinally challenged with this. I'm sure glad I didn't stay up for any of these runs last night. Those would be a few hours of my life I'd never get back.

Congrats to the southern and eastern portions of SNE.

By the way--for those who are concerened about the bull's eye several days out--look back at the big mid-Atlantic storms last year. BWI had bull's eyes painted on it for days. I kept waiting for that bull's eye to move up to NE and just sat there. We all painfully remember how those played out.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

6z GFS one for the fishies, which is fine by me. I wouldn't want to be in the bullseye right now anyway. lol

I was about to post the same thing.

For the interior locations of the northeast (and maybe all of us), we need the low to track further north than the gulf coast line. Right now it has the surface low coming across FL. In order to make that trajectory north, it's going to wrap/close-off well south of being a NE hit before heading ots. Give us a track over GA and we'll be in business. Unless that changes, I think the best we can hope for is a Cape special.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Cisco at HPC who is one of the best with a crush job

This one is coming..

Why anyone is givng the GFS any credence at all is just bewildering to me..but whatever

Euro and it's ensembles stay the course

WITH THE ECMWF LOCKING ONTO AN

EVOLUTION THAT TAKES THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

AND THEN SHARPLY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE GEM GLOBAL FOLLOWED

THE EUROPEAN CENTRE TRACK ON ITS 00Z/21 RUN...BUT HAS SWUNG THE

SYSTEM OUT WIDER OVER THE ATLANTIC THE LAST TWO RUNS. THE GFS HAS

SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHERN ROUTE ACROSS THE GULF STATES ON ITS

CURRENT RUN...BUT LIKE THE GEM GLOBAL...DIRECTS THE CYCLONE WELL

SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE ECENS MEMBERS HAVE AVERAGED

CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WITH MANY MEMBERS FOLLOWING IT

EXACTLY...AND OTHERS TRACKING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE

EUROPEAN CENTRE GUIDANCE HAS THE ADVANTAGE IN DEVELOPMENTAL

SYSTEMS WITH ITS HIGH RESOLUTION...AND IS FURTHER AIDED BY ITS

4D-VAR ANALYSIS IN GENERAL. ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE MORE HIGHLY

RESOLVED THAN THE GEFS MEMBERS...AND WITH DYNAMIC...DEVELOPMENTAL

SYSTEMS...THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE SHOULD HAVE THE EDGE.

INDEED...THE GEFS MEAN HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY FLATTER WITH THE PATH

OF THE BIG STORM...WHICH IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH THE LOWER

RESOLUTION. EVEN SO...FOUR 00Z/22 GEFS MEMBERS STILL TRACKED

COMPARABLY TO THE ECMWF...SHOWING A DEEP NOREASTER AND A HIGH

IMPACT STORM FOR THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS ASTRIDE INTERSTATE

95 FROM WASHINGTON TO BOSTON. TO WIT...THESE GEFS MEMBERS ARE

GOING AGAINST THEIR LOWER RESOLUTION/LESS DEVELOPMENTAL NATURE.

THE ECMWF HAS MUCH CLIMATOLOGY ON ITS SIDE AS WELL...WITH ITS

TRACK WEST OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE BOMBING PHASE NEAR AND

NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

THE MOST UNUSUAL...AND THREATENING...ASPECT OF THE ECMWF FORECAST

IS THE RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE AT WHICH THE STORM MATURES AND

STALLS/LOOPS. MORE TYPICALLY...SYSTEMS WILL CLOSE OFF AND HOVER

OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...AS WITH THE MOST RECENT

CYCLONE STILL AFFECTING DOWNEAST MAINE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE

UPCOMING CIRCULATION COMING TO A HALT JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WHICH PUTS THE VERY POPULATED AREAS OF THE EASTERN MID

ATLANTIC...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROLONGED

PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW. THE

EXTRAORDINARY NEGATIVE NAO THIS MONTH COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUCH

AN ANOMALY. EVEN BEFORE THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE

SYSTEM...AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR GULF COAST

STATES TO GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS

MAY SEE A VERY RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS...AGAIN...CONSISTENT WITH THE

REMARKABLE DISRUPTION AT HIGH LATITUDES

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

I was about to post the same thing.

For the interior locations of the northeast (and maybe all of us), we need the low to track further north than the gulf coast line. Right now it has the surface low coming across FL. In order to make that trajectory north, it's going to wrap/close-off well south of being a NE hit before heading ots. Give us a track over GA and we'll be in business. Unless that changes, I think the best we can hope for is a Cape special.

CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS

POINT...AS WE ARE AT LEAST FOUR DAYS AWAY FROM THE POTENTIAL EVENT.

THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE

OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY

TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND.

Mike, before you run out for more rope and a tippier chair heed the advice above. Geez, already tossing inn the towel.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

CAUTION IS ADVISED IN LITERAL MODEL INTERPRETATION AT THIS

POINT...AS WE ARE AT LEAST FOUR DAYS AWAY FROM THE POTENTIAL EVENT.

THE MODEL ITERATIONS EACH RUN WILL LIKELY CHANGE CONSIDERABLY OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVEN THE TYPICAL PHASING PROBLEMS THE

OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE REGARDING SPLIT JET STREAM PATTERNS. STAY

TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR LATER THIS WEEKEND.

Mike, before you run out for more rope and a tippier chair heed the advice above. Geez, already tossing inn the towel.

His posts have become more and more troublesome this winter . I wish we could get thru to him that this is not a miss.Not the same setup we just had

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

His posts have become more and more troublesome this winter . I wish we could get thru to him that this is not a miss.Not the same setup we just had

He's just been snakebit. Once he gets that first warning-criteria snow he'll stop Eeyoring over every storm. I'm beginning to think that Ray touched him inappropriately at the gtg.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Cisco at HPC who is one of the best with a crush job

This one is coming..

Why anyone is givng the GFS any credence at all is just bewildering to me..but whatever

Euro and it's ensembles stay the course

THE MOST UNUSUAL...AND THREATENING...ASPECT OF THE ECMWF FORECAST

IS THE RELATIVELY LOW LATITUDE AT WHICH THE STORM MATURES AND

STALLS/LOOPS. MORE TYPICALLY...SYSTEMS WILL CLOSE OFF AND HOVER

OVER THE WATERS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA...AS WITH THE MOST RECENT

CYCLONE STILL AFFECTING DOWNEAST MAINE. THE ECMWF SHOWS THE

UPCOMING CIRCULATION COMING TO A HALT JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA

PENINSULA...WHICH PUTS THE VERY POPULATED AREAS OF THE EASTERN MID

ATLANTIC...LONG ISLAND...AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A PROLONGED

PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION...MOSTLY SNOW. THE

EXTRAORDINARY NEGATIVE NAO THIS MONTH COULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT SUCH

AN ANOMALY. EVEN BEFORE THE RAPID DEEPENING PHASE OF THE

SYSTEM...AREAS OF THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE INTERIOR GULF COAST

STATES TO GEORGIA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS

MAY SEE A VERY RARE WHITE CHRISTMAS...AGAIN...CONSISTENT WITH THE

REMARKABLE DISRUPTION AT HIGH LATITUDES

The above portion of that discussion is what I was alluding to. In order for it to make that trek, it will need to bomb too soon for the interior. UNLESS--it can trek further north as it moves east across the southern tier.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

His posts have become more and more troublesome this winter . I wish we could get thru to him that this is not a miss.Not the same setup we just had

Well, know one knows if this will be a miss or not really. It's still out there. However, congratulating anyone at this range is premature at best. I'm typically overly optimistic and I've been trying to take a more metered approach. That said, this has a better look and feel to me.

I could definitely see this one coming to fruition. Mike may just be trying some reverse psychology. He hasn't had enough snow lately. My hope is that we'll get into some serious snow and after a while he cries "Uncle".

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

[ Mike, before you run out for more rope and a tippier chair heed the advice above. Geez, already tossing inn the towel.

Pete, I'm not running out for rope. lol

Also, I'm not reading the models literally. What I am saying is that I think we need the progressiong of the southern system to be a little further north than what's currently being modeled in order for their to be a good hit in the interior.

Kevin--I don't think I'm being negative. At a VERY rudimentary level, I do think I'm pointing out what needs to happen in order for this to happen in interior areas. No towel's being thrown in.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Right now you can't ask for more than this

THE ECENS MEMBERS HAVE AVERAGED

CLOSE TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...WITH MANY MEMBERS FOLLOWING IT

EXACTLY.

See Scooter's post below--he had made a similar one earlier that I had referenced. A little contrary to HPC's description.

He's just been snakebit. Once he gets that first warning-criteria snow he'll stop Eeyoring over every storm. I'm beginning to think that Ray touched him inappropriately at the gtg.

LOL

They are way se.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Because of a few members skewing it. Are you saying Cisco is wrong?

I think that was written before 00z EC ensembles came out. I'm just saying what they show. They shifted se by about 100 miles from 12z. The euro op is def a western outlier on this run, and I don't see extreme eastern outliers on the spaghetti plots. That doesn't mean they are right either...this is what they show. The H5 trough is pretty deep and actually closes off south of sne, so it would take just a slight adjustment to bring it nw, but this is a delicate balance with timing and strength of nrn stream.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Well, know one knows if this will be a miss or not really. It's still out there. However, congratulating anyone at this range is premature at best. I'm typically overly optimistic and I've been trying to take a more metered approach. That said, this has a better look and feel to me.

I could definitely see this one coming to fruition. Mike may just be trying some reverse psychology. He hasn't had enough snow lately. My hope is that we'll get into some serious snow and after a while he cries "Uncle".

My "congrats" comment is the same that is issued on any model run by most people on the board in reference to who's getting jack-potted on a run, not at T-zero. I would think people realize that whenever they see someone saying "congrats".

I also see this as one that can come to fruition. I think my posts were reflecting what I think needs to take place in order to make that possible. So, if anything, my posts are not hitching on the model as deterministic. Do they respond to what the run shows? Yes. Am I disappointed when they reduce the historic to less? Absolutely.

I don't see anything wrong with applying my utterly rudimentary knowledge of things to suggest what needs to happen. As it's currently depicted, I see it heading too far SE. Those with a better understanding of things may certainly poke holes in my reasoning or have reasoning that says the southern system will not be as far south as it is. I hope they can do both. But, I don't think I should be rebuked for offering a dispassionate take on things.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

I think that was written before 00z EC ensembles came out. I'm just saying what they show. They shifted se by about 100 miles from 12z. The euro op is def a western outlier on this run, and I don't see extreme eastern outliers on the spaghetti plots. That doesn't mean they are right either...this is what they show. The H5 trough is pretty deep and actually closes off south of sne, so it would take just a slight adjustment to bring it nw, but this is a delicate balance with timing and strength of nrn stream.

Yeah, I was reading that and wondering what euro ensembles he was looking at lol. From what Ive read, the euro ensemble mean is about 150 miles southeast of the BM.

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