Storm next weekend has better teleconnector support than this misery ever did

[40/70 Benchmark]

The 12z Euro snow output gives N ORH county into SW NH over 30 inches of snow.

I'd get like 10".....classic 2000-01 type storm.

[ORH_wxman]

I'd get like 10".....classic 2000-01 type storm.

It actually gave you about 18"

[CoastalWx]

Many members seem strangely disorganized..but some weenie solutions in there.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The 12z Euro snow output gives N ORH county into SW NH over 30 inches of snow.

yawn

[mattb65]

Watching NBC news tonight - analysis from the met was pretty let me say "special"

His two scenarios were:

1. Powerful storm that tracks right over BOS with a heavy heavy changeover to raine

2. Tracks to the BM but since it tracks to the BM it'll definitely be weaker so it will only be relatively minor accums.

Followed this up by saying that only 3 of the 12 simulations showed a hit.

Amusing for sure.

[Damage In Tolland]

It actually gave you about 18"

Was it about 14 here?

[weathafella]

Friday we'll know. GFS blows in general but it often picks it up well in the long range. This is the 1st time in a very long time the Euro has more or less had a big hit of some sort from d7-8 on in. Hopefully its ens are right.

[weathafella]

Watching NBC news tonight - analysis from the met was pretty let me say "special"

His two scenarios were:

1. Powerful storm that tracks right over BOS with a heavy heavy changeover to raine

2. Tracks to the BM but since it tracks to the BM it'll definitely be weaker so it will only be relatively minor accums.

Followed this up by saying that only 3 of the 12 simulations showed a hit.

Amusing for sure.

I'd be curious of the reasoning behind that...

[ORH_wxman]

Was it about 14 here?

It actually gave you 18-20" too...including BDL.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It actually gave you about 18"

EURO is Dec 1992...like Kev said.

[mattb65]

I'd be curious of the reasoning behind that...

After glancing at the ensemble members posted I'm guessing he's hugging that model output.

[weathafella]

After glancing at the ensemble members posted I'm guessing he's hugging that model output.

But what is his reasoning about light snow for us when a low goes over the BM?

[Kbosch]

Many members seem strangely disorganized..but some weenie solutions in there.

Is it a fault of being somewhat far out still?

[dryslot]

Reading btwn the lines, that AFD implies that a compromise between the GFS and EURO may be in order.

I had mentioned that earlier, That a track between The 2 would make for a very happy bunch of board members.........

[Damage In Tolland]

EURO is Dec 1992...like Kev said.

I think that might be closest match..though there was no sleet mixed in and it was a slightly warmer setup overall

[CoastalWx]

Is it a fault of being somewhat far out still?

Some were flat, some just way ots. I think the gfs is also keying in on the big ATL low helping to crush this low ots. You can tell as the low tries to develop...it can't get any good inflow from the Atlantic, and the mass field presentation of it is meager.

[40/70 Benchmark]

But what is his reasoning about light snow for us when a low goes over the BM?

Less amplified and more proressive porbably, but that is a gross exageration.

[weathafella]

I think that might be closest match..though there was no sleet mixed in and it was a slightly warmer setup overall

2 weeks earlier this time of year means alot.

[CoastalWx]

Less amplified and more proressive porbably, but that is a gross exageration.

I think I know who he is referring to. He did not say over the BM, the met drew a line that happened to go at the edge of his map..over the BM and said that a more offshore track would produce less moisture. He was clearly trying to depict the GFS. I don't know why he inserted words that were not said.

[weathafella]

Less amplified and more proressive porbably, but that is a gross exageration.

Exactly my point. Many of the great KUs came that rout....

[dryslot]

Many members seem strangely disorganized..but some weenie solutions in there.

That would fit the description of a few people on here...........

[dendrite]

Friday we'll know. GFS blows in general but it often picks it up well in the long range. This is the 1st time in a very long time the Euro has more or less had a big hit of some sort from d7-8 on in. Hopefully its ens are right.

Sorry, but I need to cheer for a mix for you guys.

[PineHillsWx]

But what is his reasoning about light snow for us when a low goes over the BM?

It was Pete B and it made absolutely no sense........

[mattb65]

I think I know who he is referring to. He did not say over the BM, the met drew a line that happened to go at the edge of his map..over the BM and said that a more offshore track would produce less moisture. He was clearly trying to depict the GFS. I don't know why he inserted words that were not said.

My bad, I was referring to the map he presented which showed a track drawn directly over the benchmark but he did indeed say more offshore.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Sorry, but I need to cheer for a mix for you guys.

I'd take the OP EURO.....I can forgo a jackpot if an 18" consolation is dangled. ....chances are if it ends up east, I'll somehow get less than that.

[CoastalWx]

My bad, I was referring to the map he presented which showed a track drawn directly over the benchmark but he did indeed say more offshore.

I know, but these guys are just trying to depict scenarios. He didn't have any more space on the map...so he tried getting across the more "offshore" track.

[CoastalWx]

I'd take the OP EURO.....I can forgo a jackpot if an 18" consolation is dangled. ....chances are if it ends up east, I'll somehow get less than that.

If that was a little east, you would pass out.

[dendrite]

I'd take the OP EURO.....I can forgo a jackpot if an 18" consolation is dangled. ....chances are if it ends up east, I'll somehow get less than that.

I'm at 0.4" on the season and close to sacrificing innocent kittens for snow.

[Logan11]

It's really just people somewhat below a PVD-BOS line that get screwed some by the Euro as far as I can see. Anyone above that line gets such a huge front end dump that it hardly matters if it sleets some. It just means Ray has to settle for 18" and sleet and I get 30" of powder. LOL

So I'm enjoying this run because 0Z probably moves the bulls eye back to I-95.

I'd take the OP EURO.....I can forgo a jackpot if an 18" consolation is dangled. ....chances are if it ends up east, I'll somehow get less than that.

[#NoPoles]

I'm at 0.4" on the season and close to sacrificing innocent kittens for snow.

wow, I think you are close to having one of those melt downs Ray talked about...i'm shocked!