andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 So does the 12z WRF-NMM... Discrete convection over Kankakee...seems about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 So does the 12z WRF-NMM... 40-50 knots of shear normal to the initiating boundary in eastern IA/western IL? Those cells have a shot to stay discrete for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Alek, that image looks more supercellular to me than the average derecho. It pops a monster discrete supercell in eastern IA at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Down pour here lasted about 10 minutes or less. Not much else. Yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Obviously not saying a tornado event the caliber of June 5th-6th, 2010 is likely, but the CIPS has been hitting it hard for the past two runs with that event in top 5 analogs both times, the synoptic setup is rather similar, although the mesoscale is still up in the air (which Tony mentioned the other day), which was the big reason that event played out like it did. That 18z 4 km NAM reminds me quite a bit of it, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 40-50 knots of shear normal to the initiating boundary in eastern IA/western IL? Those cells have a shot to stay discrete for a little while. One of the consistent top CIPS analogs has been 6/5/10 (it was #1 on the 00z run last night). With all these high-res solutions, you have to wonder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 PWAT's up to 2 downstate IL ... transport starting to crank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 Obviously not saying a tornado event the caliber of June 5th-6th, 2010 is likely, but the CIPS has been hitting it hard for the past two runs with that event in top 5 analogs both times, the synoptic setup is rather similar, although the mesoscale is still up in the air (which Tony mentioned the other day), which was the big reason that event played out like it did. Yeah, it's been in the top 5 (think it was #4 for the MS Valley on the 12z NAM). The big damaging wind event that was originally forecast really didn't play out and it ended up being more of a tornado event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 One of the consistent top CIPS analogs has been 6/5/10 (it was #1 on the 00z run last night). With all these high-res solutions, you have to wonder... This looks quite consistent with the MOD risk out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Local Met really hitting hard on the damaging wind threat on twitter Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 impressive cluster of hail reports over chicago on those analogs some minor mammatus over the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 One of the consistent top CIPS analogs has been 6/5/10 (it was #1 on the 00z run last night). With all these high-res solutions, you have to wonder... Really one of the few severe events I've worked where I was actually anxious. Anxious about the forecast potential, the radar signatures, the damage reports coming in, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I think the radar almost looks identical to the radar on June 5th. The only thing is there is a giant derecho following it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
natecast Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Living in the OKC metro, I can speak from some experience on the hi-res short term guidance....it nailed the tornadic events down here. I would not discount the scenarios they are displaying for a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Attempted to overlay the top 15 CIPS and tomorrow's convective outlook. Looks somewhat crude but they were two different map projections which made it difficult... but you get the picture: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Living in the OKC metro, I can speak from some experience on the hi-res short term guidance....it nailed the tornadic events down here. I would not discount the scenarios they are displaying for a second. I would imagine you feel like an unwilling participant in nature's version of russian roulette, which is what I am beginning to feel as I look at these high resolution models for affected areas on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Really hoping some action will squeeze in up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Really hoping some action will squeeze in up here. I think those of us in the southern 2 rows of Michigan are gonna do just fine, dude. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Reading GRR AFD just makes me want to go cry in a corner somewhere. Typical for this time of the year however... "We do have to watch the threat of heavy rain (deformation type rain)".... That's like a kick in the face when literally the MI/IN border is like a different world (thunderstorm complex after thunderstorm complex times 3). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I really like the area along I-80/90 and 2 counties north or 1 county south of it through IN. If anything forms along the warm front which all models are showing at this point there is a decent likelihood that it could be tornadic and with very good shear/instability pooling along the warm front there is even a non-zero chance at a significant tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Reading GRR AFD just makes me want to go cry in a corner somewhere. Typical for this time of the year however... "We do have to watch the threat of heavy rain (deformation type rain)".... That's like a kick in the face when literally the MI/IN border is like a different world (thunderstorm complex after thunderstorm complex times 3). I'll let you know how this verifies here in Elkhart, assuming I still have power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 a little old but....15Z SREF sigtor @H30... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Ever since the 4/20/04 Utica IL tornado I have always been leery of warm fronts colocated with shear and instability parameters like the models are progging along the IN toll road for Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Growing fairly concerned with tornado potential tomorrow afternoon in this area. If we clear out enough and destabilize like how many of the models show, there could be several tornadoes in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Reading GRR AFD just makes me want to go cry in a corner somewhere. Typical for this time of the year however... "We do have to watch the threat of heavy rain (deformation type rain)".... That's like a kick in the face when literally the MI/IN border is like a different world (thunderstorm complex after thunderstorm complex times 3). At least we don't live in the Central or Southern Plains or in the West right now. For many of them, it looks like several days in a row in the 90s with almost no wet relief. At least if we get screwed on the north side of things, we'll have comfortable weather to look forward to. I'll take heavy rain over stratus clouds and nothing but drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 The backed surface flow just south of the warm front tomorrow at 21z, as shown on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Dtx and saying the warm front only makes it to the state border but areas south of a line from Jackson to Detroit have the best shot at severe +enhanced tornado risk due to proximity to front Sent from my HTCONE 2 Good luck in ARB. I'm expecting stratiform t'storms from the commahead on this side of town. Hopefully, the MCV will end up generating some prolific lightning/boomers though if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Beautiful sky and sun now. Thankfully. Rain delayed my drinking of my firestone ipa outside in my chill chair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 18Z RAP staying stubborn with some type of bowing structure going through LOT tonightWonder if the current line right now northwest of Madison wisc will continue to develop and possibly strengthen going south in the next couple hours. Some rumble and flashes tonight would be nice. Even though it wont be severe, im itching to take some night time lightning shots tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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